Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
651 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with a strong
  possibility of severe storms. All hazards will be possible, though
  damaging winds will be the primary threat

- Hot and humid this weekend with near Heat Advisory conditions by
  Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA 2-10
PM...

Though some uncertainty remains regarding evolution of thunderstorms
and the resultant severe threat later today, it does appear that
widespread thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon into this
evening, with a strong possibility of severe storms with all hazards
possible, though damaging winds continue to appear to the
predominant threat.

Development of an MCV does appear to be ongoing upstream associated
with strong, but diurnally weakening convective complex over central
Oklahoma into the Ozarks. This should enhance the approaching
shortwave trough, expected to arrive this afternoon. The airmass
ahead of this trough and convectively-reinforced frontal boundary is
seasonably warm and quite moist, with precipitable water values
approaching or exceeding climatological 90th percentile. Thus, ample
instability (MLCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) is expected across the region,
with at least modest low level shear and sufficient deep layer shear
anticipated for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms
this afternoon into this evening.

The most likely scenario at this point given the bulk of the
convective allowing model guidance is development of thunderstorms
just to our west in the early afternoon hours which, given
significantly unidirectional wind profiles in the cloud-bearing
layer, and largely boundary-parallel shear vectors, should fairly
rapidly grow upscale into a QLCS with an attendant primary damaging
wind threat, along with secondary threats for tornadoes in corridors
of locally enhanced low level shear (particularly if any cells can
remain semi-discrete in a corridor ahead of the surface low over our
northwest/north where some backing of low level flow may occur), or
in areas where low level shear aligns favorably with the QLCS for
mesovortex genesis. Ample mid-level CAPE profiles suggest at least a
marginally severe hail threat, particularly earlier on in the brief
period where convection may be more discrete, though this threat may
largely take a backseat to wind as the cold pool becomes established
with upscale growth.

At least localized flash flooding will be a concern, though storm
motions will generally be quick enough to confine this concern to
areas that have received the most rainfall in recent days/weeks, or
to the upshear portion of the line or line segments.

The most likely timing for severe storms across the area appears to
be as early as 2-3 PM in the west, with severe storms exiting the
area by 9-10 PM in the east. An important note - this window would
place severe storms in or near the Indy metro area near or toward
the end of the evening rush.

Lingering showers and storms will remain possible through the night,
with chances gradually diminishing as the front approaches and
passes through the area.

Outside of storms this afternoon, gusty winds can be expected, with
gusts to around 30KT/35 MPH give or take.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Thursday will see an exiting upper wave and seasonable temperatures.
Some lingering showers and storms could still be around in the
morning, or even a few isolated pop ups in the afternoon, but
largely expecting most of the rain to have come to an end by
daybreak Thursday.

The end of the week and into the weekend high pressure both aloft
and near the surface will be building, tracking from Texas and then
centering over the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Heat and humidity will
dominate the long term as highs Saturday through mid next week will
be around 90 to 93 degrees and dewpoints persistently in the 70s.
With heat indices likely getting to above 100 for several days, it
is probably that heat advisories will be needed.

A few models are showing that isolated afternoon storms could be
possible given the heat and humidity, but would expect the high
pressure in place would be enough to suppress any showers or storms.
Chances for rain are looking better towards mid-next week when the
high pressure shifts further east, weakening over central Indiana.
Looking beyond the long term, hot, humid conditions are expected to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Impacts:

- VFR conditions largely expected outside of shower/thunderstorm
  activity, with exception of a period of IFR ceilings/MVFR fog at
  BMG early in the period

- Gusty winds today up to the low 30KT range outside of storms

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms at all sites. Have
  used a TEMPO group to depict best timing given current guidance
  despite continued uncertainty

Discussion:

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of
shower and storm activity, with the exception of BMG early in the
period. Some threat will exist for restrictions very late in the
period tonight given continued low level moisture, but this is too
uncertain for inclusion at this time.

A few storms are moving through the area this morning, and will
impact IND very early in the period, after which a lull is expected.

Through the course of the day, shower and thunderstorm chances will
ramp up as low pressure approaches from the west. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will be a threat at all sites, and have used a TEMPO
group to attempt to provide the best timing given current guidance,
though uncertainty remains, carrying a PROB30 thereafter for
lingering showers and storms into the evening.

Winds will be strong and gusty today, generally from about 200 to
240 degrees depending upon the site and time, with sustained winds
into the mid teens and gusts into the low 30KT range. These gusts
will subside during the evening hours, though sustained winds may
remain in the 5-10KT range overnight tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Nield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
401 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190815-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
401 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening, with potential for severe storms in the 2 to 10 PM EDT time
frame. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, though large hail,
isolated tornadoes, and localized flash flooding will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may linger into Thursday.

Heat indices may be as high as 100 to 105 degrees during the
afternoon hours each day Saturday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into the evening
hours.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
519 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INZ035-043-044-181000-
Fountain IN-Parke IN-Vermillion IN-
519 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Fountain, northern Parke and central Vermillion Counties through 600
AM EDT...

At 516 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Newport, or 16 miles northeast of Paris, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rockville, Veedersburg, Newport, Cayuga, Montezuma, Dana, Kingman,
Bloomingdale, Marshall, Wallace, Lodi, Turkey Run State Park, Yeddo,
and Judson.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 15 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 8753 4015 8722 3980 8707 3969 8752
      3974 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 0916Z 235DEG 23KT 3981 8751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Nield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
614 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INZ043-044-051-181045-
Parke IN-Vermillion IN-Vigo IN-
614 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Vigo,
western Parke and southern Vermillion Counties through 645 AM EDT...

At 614 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edgar County Airport, or 7 miles northeast of Paris, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Fairview Park, Montezuma, Rosedale, Universal, Mecca,
Blanford, and Shepardsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3977 8753 3990 8735 3963 8720 3957 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 245DEG 30KT 3967 8756

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
731 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INZ046-047-054-055-181200-
Johnson IN-Morgan IN-Hendricks IN-Marion IN-
731 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Morgan,
northern Johnson, southeastern Hendricks and southern Marion Counties
through 800 AM EDT...

At 731 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Plainfield, or 10 miles southwest of Indianapolis, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Greenwood, Lawrence, Plainfield, Franklin, Beech Grove,
Mooresville, Southport, New Whiteland, Cumberland, Whiteland,
Bargersville, Brooklyn, Warren Park, Homecroft, Monument Circle,
Indianapolis Int'l Airport, Waverly, and Camby.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 91 and 113.
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 65 and 93.
 Interstate 74 between mile markers 93 and 100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 8638 3971 8641 3985 8595 3949 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1131Z 261DEG 26KT 3968 8630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME