Tornado Warning 50, NWS Indianapolis, IN

823 
WWUS53 KIND 181904
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
304 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INC045-121-165-181915-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-250618T1915Z/
Fountain IN-Parke IN-Vermillion IN-
304 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN FOUNTAIN...NORTHWESTERN PARKE AND SOUTHEASTERN
VERMILLION COUNTIES...

At 304 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 7 miles northeast of Newport, or 20 miles southeast of
Danville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Newport, Montezuma, Bloomingdale, Marshall, Lodi, and Turkey Run
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3971 8741 3998 8742 4002 8739 3986 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 222DEG 39KT 3996 8732 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
224 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, with a strong
  possibility of severe storms. All hazards will be possible, though
  damaging winds will be the primary threat

- Hot and humid this weekend with near Heat Advisory conditions by
  Sunday

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Steadily increasing organization with the band of convection now
moving into Indiana. Two evolving RIJ/surges are noted now in
northern Vermillion County, IL, and along the Vermillion/Edgar
County line. Near and north of the apex of these evolving bows will
be where the wind and QLCS mesovortex/tornado threat will be
highest. The 0-3-km shear vector orientation is sufficient for this
process to continue eastward into central Indiana with the northwest
half of the area having the best tornado threat. Further south, the
tornado threat is still present but the shear vector orientation is
less optimal and the potential for organized RIJ/surges is less.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 1218 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE BETWEEN 1PM AND 9PM...

THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON

 A strong MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) has developed overnight
from yesterday's convection and is currently located over east
central Missouri. This feature will be enhanced by a shortwave
trough aloft, strengthen further, and track northeast through the
afternoon. Latest ACARS soundings out of IND show a fairly stable
boundary layer with only modest lapse rates aloft. However,
instability will increase as the near-surface layer continues to
warm. The hodograph is long and slightly curved in the 0-3km layer
and quite messy above that.

Going forward, as mentioned above, continued surface warming will
lead to a very unstable air mass by this afternoon ahead of the
approaching MCV. Guidance is generally within the 2000-3000 J/Kg
MLCAPE range, with a few members even higher. Of particular note is
the abundance of near-surface instability due to a very moist
boundary layer. Guidance shows 3CAPE values between 100-200 J/Kg
across the majority of our area by 18z.

STORM MODE AND HAZARD TYPE

With a stronger MCV materializing, greater mesoscale forcing for
convection will likely be present in addition synoptic-scale forcing
from the shortwave aloft. Additionally, greater backing within the
surface wind field is expected as one heads northwest (closer to the
low center). This backing may act to locally enhance curvature
within the low-level hodographs, leading to an increased tornado
threat.

In the low to mid-levels, the strong MCV is acting to enhance the
low-level jet which may reach 45-55kt as low as 925mb. With steep
boundary layer lapse rates anticipated, it would not take much to
mix these winds to the surface. Should any cold pools form and help
convection organize into lines or line segments, then RIJ
enhancement may lead to a more widespread / significant wind threat.

As for large hail potential, given weakness within the 500-250mb
flow this may not be that widespread. Still, given the amount of
CAPE present and fairly high ELs (10-12km), some isolated instances
of severe hail are certainly possible.

Our primary severe hazard today will depend on storm mode. Shear
vectors are oblique to a wind shift that extends southwest from the
MCV/low center. Combined with relatively weak flow aloft, a linear
to quasi-linear mode is preferred with the potential for some
discrete storms in the open warm sector. With abundant low-level
shear and moisture, a tornado threat is present especially as one
nears the MCV center and along a pseudo warm front extending to its
northeast. The tornado threat may occur in discrete storms as well
as within linear elements...especially if low-level flow can align
in such a way that promotes mesoscale circulations. Strong to severe
wind gusts are likely to be the primary hazard today given the steep
low-level lapse rates and intense LLJ, combined with
enhancement from potential cold pool dynamics.

In addition to the above hazards, flash flooding will be possible
should any storm training occur. Recent rainfall has lead to quicker
flash flood response times. A broad non-convective wind threat may
evolve on the southwest and south side of the departing MCV. Some
members of guidance show wind gusts between 40-50kt across our
northwestern counties later this afternoon. A wind advisory may be
needed across these areas later on.

TIMING

With the low/MCV now apparent, CAMs have come into better agreement
regarding timing. Activity may reach the Indiana/Illinois line as
early as 1pm, traversing Indiana during the afternoon hours before
exiting into Ohio around 9pm. Storms may linger a bit longer across
our south as the MCV lifts northeastward and the trailing boundary
slows.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 356 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Thursday will see an exiting upper wave and seasonable temperatures.
Some lingering showers and storms could still be around in the
morning, or even a few isolated pop ups in the afternoon, but
largely expecting most of the rain to have come to an end by
daybreak Thursday.

The end of the week and into the weekend high pressure both aloft
and near the surface will be building, tracking from Texas and then
centering over the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Heat and humidity will
dominate the long term as highs Saturday through mid next week will
be around 90 to 93 degrees and dewpoints persistently in the 70s.
With heat indices likely getting to above 100 for several days, it
is probably that heat advisories will be needed.

A few models are showing that isolated afternoon storms could be
possible given the heat and humidity, but would expect the high
pressure in place would be enough to suppress any showers or storms.
Chances for rain are looking better towards mid-next week when the
high pressure shifts further east, weakening over central Indiana.
Looking beyond the long term, hot, humid conditions are expected to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings with scattered showers and thunderstorms this
  afternoon

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible with IFR or worse
  conditions

- Showers and MVFR ceilings linger into the night, slowly clearing
  Thursday morning

Discussion:

A potent low pressure system approaching from the west will promote
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity today. Some storms could
be strong to severe with IFR conditions or worse. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings should be present much of the time. MVFR ceilings may
continue into Thursday morning but gradual clearing is expected as
the day wears on.

Best chance of strong to severe storms is from 19z to 23z. Timing is
tricky, but storms are beginning to take shape in Illinois which has
helped us refine the timing in the TAFs a bit.

Strong wind gusts, not associated with thunderstorms, may be present
near LAF this evening as the low passes by. On the back side of the
low, winds slowly become northwesterly by Thursday morning and
decrease to less than 10kt.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-028>031-
035>038-043-044.

&&

MESOSCALE...BRB
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Eckhoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
401 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190815-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
401 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Widespread thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into this
evening, with potential for severe storms in the 2 to 10 PM EDT time
frame. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, though large hail,
isolated tornadoes, and localized flash flooding will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional isolated thunderstorms may linger into Thursday.

Heat indices may be as high as 100 to 105 degrees during the
afternoon hours each day Saturday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into the evening
hours.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
155 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

INZ036-037-045-181830-
Montgomery IN-Putnam IN-Boone IN-
155 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Boone,
central Montgomery and northwestern Putnam Counties through 230 PM
EDT...

At 155 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Crawfordsville, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crawfordsville, Ladoga, Roachdale, Darlington, Bainbridge, New
Market, Advance, Russellville, New Ross, and Carpentersville.

This includes Interstate 74 between mile markers 31 and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for central and
west central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 8655 3992 8666 3992 8669 3988 8669
      3974 8681 3983 8700 4019 8696
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 196DEG 32KT 3986 8690

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

GM