Tornado Warning 47, NWS Lincoln, IL

018 
WWUS53 KILX 162152
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
452 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ILC079-101-159-162201-
/O.CAN.KILX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250516T2215Z/
Lawrence-Jasper-Richland-
452 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN JASPER
AND NORTHEASTERN RICHLAND COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Illinois.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 8792 3900 8794 3909 8762 3906 8757
      3900 8758 3899 8756 3899 8758 3896 8751
      3890 8752 3889 8754 3888 8753 3886 8755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 256DEG 48KT 3895 8786 

$$

ILC033-162215-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250516T2215Z/
Crawford-
452 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 451 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Oblong, or 7 miles southwest of Robinson, moving
east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Robinson around 455 PM CDT.
  Palestine around 500 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include New
Hebron, Duncanville, Trimble, Hardinville, Stoy, Crawford County
Airport, and Merom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 8792 3900 8794 3909 8762 3906 8757
      3900 8758 3899 8756 3899 8758 3896 8751
      3890 8752 3889 8754 3888 8753 3886 8755
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 256DEG 48KT 3895 8786 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN

$$

25

420 
WWUS53 KILX 162202 RRA
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
502 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ILC033-162215-
/O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250516T2215Z/
Crawford-
502 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
CRAWFORD COUNTY...

At 502 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Robinson, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Palestine around 510 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include New
Hebron, Duncanville, Stoy, Crawford County Airport, Trimble, and
Merom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 8787 3903 8785 3909 8762 3906 8757
      3900 8758 3899 8756 3899 8758 3896 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 257DEG 39KT 3898 8772 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

25

608 
WWUS53 KILX 162217
SVSILX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
517 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ILC033-162227-
/O.EXP.KILX.TO.W.0047.000000T0000Z-250516T2215Z/
Crawford-
517 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL CRAWFORD COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Illinois.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Lincoln.

&&

LAT...LON 3893 8787 3903 8785 3909 8762 3906 8757
      3900 8758 3899 8756 3899 8758 3896 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 259DEG 42KT 3901 8753 

$$

25

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
211 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 4 of 5 (moderate) risk for severe weather
  Friday afternoon and evening south of roughly I-70, and a level
  3 (enhanced) risk further northwest to roughly I-55. Possible
  hazards include intense straight-line winds, large hail, and
  tornadoes.

- Southwest winds gusting 35-50 mph this afternoon will combine
  with relative humidity values below 30% north of I-72 to result
  in increased fire danger.

- Those strong winds will also result in a risk for localized
  blowing dust, which could briefly diminish visibility for
  motorists in rural areas. That risk will be highest north of
  I-70 and east of roughly the IL River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A mid level disturbance lifting northeast out of the central Plains
will bring an opportunity for severe thunderstorms to the region
this afternoon and evening. In its wake, conditions turn dry and
cooler for the upcoming weekend. Early next work week, thunderstorm
chances will return with the approach of another trough lifting out
of the Great Plains.

***** SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING *****

At 2pm, surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across
central IL, with dewpoints ranging from the low to mid 60s south
of roughly I-70 to low 40s west of the IL River. The more abundant
moisture continues to surge north in advance of a mid-upper level
disturbance lifting towards the region from the Central Plains,
though this will eventually be limited by ongoing upstream
convection across east-central MO. As these storms build
northeast along the dryline and move into central IL, they will
pose a risk for all severe hazards, including large-significant
hail, destructive downburst winds; meanwhile, the risk for
tornadoes will be higher in southeast and east-central IL where
low level moisture is higher and hence LCL heights are lower.
While convective mode is depicted in virtually every CAM as
discrete to start, there may be a tendency towards upscale growth
into a MCS capable of widespread damaging winds. Fortunately,
these storms will be moving quickly, so the threat will be
rapidly diminishing from west to east and we'll update the watch
accordingly. By 9pm (if not sooner), the storms should be out of
here.

***** GUSTY WINDS TODAY ****

South-southwest winds will continue to gust 30 to 40 mph today, with
some potential for sporadic gusts up to 50 mph especially across
our western counties where winds aloft will be increasing with the
approaching upper level trough. HRRR/RAP Bufkit soundings suggest
top of channel winds could exceed 50 kt at times mainly west of
the IL River, but we suspect a slight dry bias may be resulting in
erroneously high values; nonetheless, we'll be monitoring surface
observations in case we need to expand the Wind Advisory to
include more counties. In addition, these strong winds could
result in some localized blowing dust which could degrade
visibility for motorists, especially considering we already had a
few reports of such blowing dust yesterday and winds are running
slightly stronger today. These strong winds, combined with dry low
levels (RH values < 30%) across our north/northwest counties, are
resulting in increased fire weather danger which will continue
through the evening. See the fire weather section below for more
information on that.

***** DRY AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND *****

The upper trough will shift east and surface high pressure build
into the region in its wake tomorrow/night, giving us a dry and
seasonably cool weekend with daily highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tomorrow may actually feel a bit chilly given northwest winds
gusting to around 30 mph. The next opportunity for precipitation
will arrive Sunday night/Monday into Tuesday of next week as another
system lifts out of the Central Plains. A lot remains unclear about
that system, including its arrival time and warmth/moisture return
ahead of it, which suggests vast uncertainty surrounding both
precipitation amounts and any severe weather potential. However, a
strong push of cool advection appears increasingly likely towards
the middle of next work week; blended guidance from NBM brings highs
into only the low to mid 60s by Wednesday.

Bumgardner

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Between an unseasonably deep low pressure system across the Upper
Midwest and a surface high to our east, the pressure gradient has
tightened across central IL favoring stiff south to southwest
winds which will gust 25 to 35 kt (sporadically higher) through
the evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave disturbance lifting out of the
Central Plains will spark storms somewhere across the area, with
the highest confidence in storms at DEC and CMI and less certainly
further northwest. These storms will be capable of generating
localized large hail and wind gusts over 50 kt, as well as briefly
diminished visibility. Behind a cold front, winds will shift to
westerly this evening and remain gusty through the early portion
of the overnight period. Lower ceilings will filter in from the
north towards sunrise/11z, with HREF giving a 40-60% for MVFR at
PIA and BMI for several hours during the early to mid morning.
Winds pick back up a bit around 15-16z as diurnal heating deepens
mixing.

Bumgardner

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Deep mixing has resulted in large dewpoint depressions and hence
RH values less than 30% near and north of roughly I-72, where wind
gusts are slated to increase to upwards of 35-45 mph shortly.
Consequently, we recommend limiting or at least using extra
precautions with any burning activities during the late morning
into early evening. The special weather statement remains for
areas from I-72 northward to address the enhanced fire danger
today.

Bumgardner/Huettl

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-037-
038.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
108 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-171815-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
108 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Another round of severe weather is expected this afternoon and
evening across portions of central and southeast Illinois. All
severe weather hazards including large hail exceeding 2 inches in
diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, and a tornado
are possible. The severe storm chances are higher in areas east of
I-55.

Dry and gusty conditions could support rapid fire spread and blowing
dust this afternoon. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible this afternoon, then westerly wind gusts up to 45 mph are
possible into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The risk for severe weather then returns on Monday across portions
of
west central Illinois and again on Tuesday as slow moving system
moves across the region. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 3 PM and 7 PM today.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171815-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
108 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Another round of severe weather is likely this afternoon and
evening. All severe weather hazards including large hail exceeding 2
inches in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, and a
tornado are possible.

Dry and gusty conditions could support rapid fire spread and blowing
dust this afternoon, mainly in areas north of I-72.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The risk for severe weather then returns on Monday across portions
of
west central Illinois and again on Tuesday as slow moving system
moves across the region. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 3 PM and 9 PM today.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

Erwin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
410 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Southern View     39.77N 89.64W
05/16/2025                   Sangamon           IL   Utility Company

            Power poles were broken and power lines were
            blown down in the Harvard Park neighborhood.

&&

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
414 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Shelbyville             39.41N 88.81W
05/16/2025                   Shelby             IL   Broadcast Media

            Several large tree limbs were blown down.

&&

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
418 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Willard Airport         40.04N 88.27W
05/16/2025  M69 MPH          Champaign          IL   ASOS

&&

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
436 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mount Zion              39.78N 88.87W
05/16/2025                   Macon              IL   Public

            A flag pole was snapped.

&&

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
437 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Decatur           39.81N 88.94W
05/16/2025                   Macon              IL   Public

            Multiple trees were blown down near Lake
            Decatur.

&&

Barnes

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
438 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Decatur            39.85N 88.95W
05/16/2025                   Macon              IL   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous tree branches and power lines were
            blown down across Decatur.

&&

Barnes