Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
211 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 4 of 5 (moderate) risk for severe weather
  Friday afternoon and evening south of roughly I-70, and a level
  3 (enhanced) risk further northwest to roughly I-55. Possible
  hazards include intense straight-line winds, large hail, and
  tornadoes.

- Southwest winds gusting 35-50 mph this afternoon will combine
  with relative humidity values below 30% north of I-72 to result
  in increased fire danger.

- Those strong winds will also result in a risk for localized
  blowing dust, which could briefly diminish visibility for
  motorists in rural areas. That risk will be highest north of
  I-70 and east of roughly the IL River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A mid level disturbance lifting northeast out of the central Plains
will bring an opportunity for severe thunderstorms to the region
this afternoon and evening. In its wake, conditions turn dry and
cooler for the upcoming weekend. Early next work week, thunderstorm
chances will return with the approach of another trough lifting out
of the Great Plains.

***** SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING *****

At 2pm, surface temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s across
central IL, with dewpoints ranging from the low to mid 60s south
of roughly I-70 to low 40s west of the IL River. The more abundant
moisture continues to surge north in advance of a mid-upper level
disturbance lifting towards the region from the Central Plains,
though this will eventually be limited by ongoing upstream
convection across east-central MO. As these storms build
northeast along the dryline and move into central IL, they will
pose a risk for all severe hazards, including large-significant
hail, destructive downburst winds; meanwhile, the risk for
tornadoes will be higher in southeast and east-central IL where
low level moisture is higher and hence LCL heights are lower.
While convective mode is depicted in virtually every CAM as
discrete to start, there may be a tendency towards upscale growth
into a MCS capable of widespread damaging winds. Fortunately,
these storms will be moving quickly, so the threat will be
rapidly diminishing from west to east and we'll update the watch
accordingly. By 9pm (if not sooner), the storms should be out of
here.

***** GUSTY WINDS TODAY ****

South-southwest winds will continue to gust 30 to 40 mph today, with
some potential for sporadic gusts up to 50 mph especially across
our western counties where winds aloft will be increasing with the
approaching upper level trough. HRRR/RAP Bufkit soundings suggest
top of channel winds could exceed 50 kt at times mainly west of
the IL River, but we suspect a slight dry bias may be resulting in
erroneously high values; nonetheless, we'll be monitoring surface
observations in case we need to expand the Wind Advisory to
include more counties. In addition, these strong winds could
result in some localized blowing dust which could degrade
visibility for motorists, especially considering we already had a
few reports of such blowing dust yesterday and winds are running
slightly stronger today. These strong winds, combined with dry low
levels (RH values < 30%) across our north/northwest counties, are
resulting in increased fire weather danger which will continue
through the evening. See the fire weather section below for more
information on that.

***** DRY AND COOLER THIS WEEKEND *****

The upper trough will shift east and surface high pressure build
into the region in its wake tomorrow/night, giving us a dry and
seasonably cool weekend with daily highs in the low to mid 70s.
Tomorrow may actually feel a bit chilly given northwest winds
gusting to around 30 mph. The next opportunity for precipitation
will arrive Sunday night/Monday into Tuesday of next week as another
system lifts out of the Central Plains. A lot remains unclear about
that system, including its arrival time and warmth/moisture return
ahead of it, which suggests vast uncertainty surrounding both
precipitation amounts and any severe weather potential. However, a
strong push of cool advection appears increasingly likely towards
the middle of next work week; blended guidance from NBM brings highs
into only the low to mid 60s by Wednesday.

Bumgardner

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Between an unseasonably deep low pressure system across the Upper
Midwest and a surface high to our east, the pressure gradient has
tightened across central IL favoring stiff south to southwest
winds which will gust 25 to 35 kt (sporadically higher) through
the evening. Meanwhile, a shortwave disturbance lifting out of the
Central Plains will spark storms somewhere across the area, with
the highest confidence in storms at DEC and CMI and less certainly
further northwest. These storms will be capable of generating
localized large hail and wind gusts over 50 kt, as well as briefly
diminished visibility. Behind a cold front, winds will shift to
westerly this evening and remain gusty through the early portion
of the overnight period. Lower ceilings will filter in from the
north towards sunrise/11z, with HREF giving a 40-60% for MVFR at
PIA and BMI for several hours during the early to mid morning.
Winds pick back up a bit around 15-16z as diurnal heating deepens
mixing.

Bumgardner

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Deep mixing has resulted in large dewpoint depressions and hence
RH values less than 30% near and north of roughly I-72, where wind
gusts are slated to increase to upwards of 35-45 mph shortly.
Consequently, we recommend limiting or at least using extra
precautions with any burning activities during the late morning
into early evening. The special weather statement remains for
areas from I-72 northward to address the enhanced fire danger
today.

Bumgardner/Huettl

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-037-
038.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
108 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047>050-171815-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-Schuyler-Mason-
Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
108 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Another round of severe weather is expected this afternoon and
evening across portions of central and southeast Illinois. All
severe weather hazards including large hail exceeding 2 inches in
diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, and a tornado
are possible. The severe storm chances are higher in areas east of
I-55.

Dry and gusty conditions could support rapid fire spread and blowing
dust this afternoon. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible this afternoon, then westerly wind gusts up to 45 mph are
possible into the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The risk for severe weather then returns on Monday across portions
of
west central Illinois and again on Tuesday as slow moving system
moves across the region. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 3 PM and 7 PM today.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

ILZ038-042>046-051>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171815-
McLean-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-
Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-
Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
108 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Another round of severe weather is likely this afternoon and
evening. All severe weather hazards including large hail exceeding 2
inches in diameter, thunderstorm wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, and a
tornado are possible.

Dry and gusty conditions could support rapid fire spread and blowing
dust this afternoon, mainly in areas north of I-72.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The risk for severe weather then returns on Monday across portions
of
west central Illinois and again on Tuesday as slow moving system
moves across the region. Locally heavy rain is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 3 PM and 9 PM today.

Expected storm motion is toward the northeast around 50 mph.

Erwin

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