Tornado Warning 27, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
945 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Sunday)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A line of strong to severe storms this evening will continue to
move slowly to the north and east through the area tonight. These
storms have formed along to just ahead of an approaching cold
front. Early this evening, embedded supercells have produced
confirmed tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds across
northeast Mississippi. As they progress into Northern Alabama and
Southern Middle Tennessee tonight, the severe threat is expected
to continue with the primary threats being tornadoes and damaging
wind gusts. Forecast soundings shows a supportive environment for
severe storms with 1000-2000 j/kg of CAPE and 50-60 kts of
effective shear. Embedded supercells within the the long line of
storms is the most likely storm mode. As the low level jet ramps
up overnight, low level shear increases, which could locally
increase the tornado threat in storms that can orient themselves
in a more north-south line with eastward surges. The biggest
uncertainty tonight is on how quick the line can move eastward as
the CAMs have been more progressive with the forward momentum
compared to the observations. That being said a best estimate is
that the severe threat for NW AL will continue through 1-2am, I-65
corridor from 1am-5am, and NE AL between 4am-8am.

On top of the severe storms there is the heavy rain and flooding
threat across our entire forecast area. 2-3 inch per hour rain
rates have been observed and with the slow movement, storms will
train over the same locations. Pwats between 1.5 and 2 inches,
which is above the daily max based on BMX sounding climatology, is
leading to very efficient rainfall. This could lead to 2-4 inches
of storm total rainfall with locally higher amounts of 4-6
inches. A Flood Watch for Flash Flooding remains in effect through
7pm Sunday.

The main severe and flooding threat will end across our forecast
area from west to east after sunrise. However, stratiform rain is
forecast to continue through the morning and into the afternoon
until the leading edge of the upper trough axis finally shifts to
the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Cooler air arrives behind the cold front as northwesterly flow
helps drop temperatures down into the mid 40s. This is around 20
to 25 degrees cooler than the last few nights. We remain
underneath the upper level trough to start the work week. This
will allow for below climatological norm temperatures on Monday
and Tuesday with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and lows
in the low to mid 30s. There is a low chance (15-20%) for some
subfreezing temperatures or frost Tuesday night along and north
of the Tennessee River. This trend will be monitored in future
updates if headlines are needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 945 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

As we head into the second half of next week, the upper level
pattern shows a more zonal flow across the Southeast. Seasonal
temperatures and dry weather are forecast both Wednesday and
Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Another trough digs down across the Plains on Thursday which will
bring another weak cold front into the Tennessee Valley. Low
chances (20-30%) of showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder on
Thursday night/Friday. The good news is that severe weather is not
expected with this frontal passage. The upper level trough pushes
to the east at the end of next week, bringing back dry weather to
start the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms across MS is slowly
moving to the NE. These are expected to impact northern AL
starting around 04z and continue eastward overnight. Expect rapid
reductions in both vsby and cigs to IFR/MVFR as the line moves
through. Showers will continue behind the line through around
sunrise which will hold flight conditions in the high end IFR to
low MVFR. Still some uncertainty if the low stratus clears behind
the showers tomorrow morning or if they linger through afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...GH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
836 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

ALZ005-006-TNZ076-096-097-060215-
Madison AL-Limestone AL-Franklin TN-Moore TN-Lincoln TN-
836 PM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MADISON...EASTERN
LIMESTONE...MOORE...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 836 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Harvest, or 9 miles west of Meridianville, moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elkwood, Howell, Hurdlow, Lynchburg, Mimosa, Harvest, Smithland,
Hazel Green, Fisk, and Lincoln.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for north central
Alabama...and Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8628 3538 8625 3537 8627 3534 8624
      3535 8622 3533 8620 3535 8617 3477 8669
      3487 8687 3535 8654 3536 8649 3533 8646
      3532 8642 3535 8641 3536 8633 3541 8629
      3541 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 212DEG 45KT 3489 8673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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