Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
950 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area tonight, bringing temperatures back
to near normal for Sunday and Monday under partly cloudy skies. Dry
high pressure builds in Tuesday, then another unsettled pattern
likely develops by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 935 PM EDT Saturday: At this time, the line of storms
ahead of a cold front out west has reached the CWA and is currently
crossing the NC mountains and NE Georgia into the Upstate. Once the
line emerges east of the mountains, the environment remains
favorable for increasing the severe threat. Current analysis shows
around 500 j/kg of sbCAPE and some decent 100-150 0-1km SRH. Modest
shear of 30-40kts still present with the upper low off to the NW.
There still remains enough juice to keep the line together through
the area and this is a growing concern. The risks are still mainly
damaging winds, cloud-to-ground lightning and hail. Though extremely
unlikely, given the 0-1 km SRH values in the 100-150 range, a very
weak, brief tornado cannot be ruled out should a break in the line
occur. The line should be in the Greenville area in the next hour or
so and reaching the Charlotte Metro around midnight.

By daybreak Sunday, the passage of the main wave should carry most
of the precip with it and the dry slot should spread across the
fcst area. The close proximity of the upper low will act to keep
temps right on the cool side of normal. Cold air aloft will allow
for shower development with some daytime heating, mainly over the
mtns, so a slight chance to chance prob will be carried there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of Noon Saturday...

Key messages:

1. Isolated/scattered showers will be possible Monday near the
TN border.

2. Otherwise, Dry thru Tuesday, with temps around or a little
below normal.

An upper low will spin over the Ohio Valley Monday, and begin to
drift northeast toward the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday. The low's
proximity may allow for some instability and isolated to scattered
diurnal showers along/near the TN border Monday aftn. The rest of
the forecast area will see mostly sunny skies and temps will be
a category or two below normal.

Tuesday looks dry, as the low drifts away, and a west-east axis of
sfc high pressure builds in on the south side of the low. Temps
return to near normal under mostly sunny skies and comfortable
humidity levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of Noon Saturday...

Models are in decent agreement on the pattern thru the medium
range. They have converged on another upper low cutting off...this
time over the Ozarks region, then drifting southeast into the Lower
MS Valley. A deep trough is progged to dig thru the Northeast,
and may interact with this low, but the latest GFS and ECMWF keep
the southern low spinning thru the weekend in a Rex block. This will
likely set up an unsettled wx pattern for the forecast area starting
Wednesday. An area of sfc low pres will form over the Lower MS
Valley and activate a warm front across the Southeast. Gulf moisture
will spread over the front and produce areas of showers off and on
thru Friday. There will be some diurnal component to the activity,
but there may some shower chances continuing at night. At this
point, it doesn't look like a heavy rain/flood threat, but locally
heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. Severe chances will also be
muted with generally elevated CAPE and marginal bulk shear. Max
temps will be near to slightly below normal, while lows will
generally be a few degrees above normal under plenty of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The first round of TSRA has cleared all
terminals, but another round is on its way. Starting out VFR
everywhere as a line of TSRA approaches terminals from the west.
Confidence has increased prompting TEMPOs at all sites, with KAVL as
the earliest arrival by 01z. If the line holds together, KCLT could
see TSRA after 04z-08z. Some VCSH may linger but quickly diminish
afterwards. MVFR/IFR cigs behind the line start to clear into late
Sunday morning before improving into the VFR range. As for winds,
KAVL turns NW by daybreak as the front approaches. Not expecting
much of a wind direction change elsewhere for this TAF period. Other
than a few temporary gusts during the TSRA, winds should be 5-10kts.

Outlook: Drier weather and predominately VFR conditions are expected
to return after Sunday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...CP/PM
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...CP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-041945-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
342 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms now through tonight with the main threats
of damaging wind gusts and large hail. A few locations could see
multiple rounds of storms. Some localized flash flooding is also
possible, particularly in areas that experience more than one round
of heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
907 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ010-104-040145-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
907 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN
STEPHENS...NORTHERN HART...WEST CENTRAL ANDERSON AND SOUTHERN OCONEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM EDT...

At 907 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Toccoa, or over Avalon, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Townville, Reed Creek, Tugaloo State Park, Avalon, Gumlog, Martin,
Lavonia, Oakway, Fair Play, and Eastanolee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3437 8334 3465 8323 3466 8284 3465 8284
      3465 8283 3464 8283 3463 8285 3462 8285
      3465 8281 3437 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 264DEG 37KT 3451 8319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
920 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

SCZ010-104>107-040200-
Greater Oconee SC-Central Greenville SC-Anderson SC-
Greater Pickens SC-Southern Greenville SC-
920 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GREENVILLE...
NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...PICKENS AND EAST CENTRAL OCONEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM EDT...

At 920 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Seneca, or near Lake Keowee, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Easley, Central, Liberty, Pickens, Powdersville, Clemson, Six Mile,
Salem, Berea, and Norris.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3465 8306 3488 8303 3490 8300 3492 8293
      3496 8241 3468 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 264DEG 46KT 3481 8291

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
923 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

SCZ012-013-040215-
Laurens SC-Union SC-
923 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAURENS AND CENTRAL
UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 922 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Union, or 7 miles west of Rose Hill State Park,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cross Keys, Rose Hill State Park, Sedalia, Monarch Mill, Santuc,
Buffalo, and Union.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3460 8190 3459 8189 3460 8188 3458 8186
      3460 8185 3465 8184 3467 8183 3481 8165
      3465 8148 3449 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 233DEG 27KT 3458 8179

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
942 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

SCZ009-013-014-040215-
York SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
942 PM EDT Sat May 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...
SOUTHWESTERN YORK AND NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM
EDT...

At 942 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Union, or near Lockhart, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Adamsburg, Bullock Creek, and Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 8164 3488 8153 3487 8153 3488 8152
      3487 8148 3486 8149 3484 8146 3485 8145
      3487 8147 3490 8148 3492 8147 3497 8141
      3483 8127 3473 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 231DEG 26KT 3482 8152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TW

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