Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
457 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect along and east of Highway 25
  through this evening, and another Heat Advisory has been
  issued for Friday for Red Willow to Gove counties and
  eastward. Heat indices of up to 105 are expected in the
  advisory area.

- Isolated thunderstorms could develop in eastern Colorado and
  far western Kansas late this afternoon. Severe storms are not
  expected, but wind gusts to 50 mph and dry lightning are
  possible.

- A cold front remains on track to move through the area this
  weekend, and its arrival has trended faster compared to
  previous forecasts. Periodic storm chances will exist through
  the weekend, and temperatures will trend back to near normal.
  A few storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Much of the forecast remains on track for the next 24 hours, but
did want to note that guidance has trending much faster with the
expected cold front for this weekend, with the front
approaching SW Nebraska as early as mid-afternoon on Fri (as
opposed to late Fri night). This has several implications for
the forecast, which will be discussed in greater detail below.

The dense fog and stratus that was in place a wide swath of the
region this morning had completely eroded away as of 17z/11am
MT, leaving mostly clear skies in place into the afternoon. No
meaningful changes were made to the temperature forecast for
today, with highs still expected to climb into the low 100s.

As of 1830z/1230 PM MT, a weak sfc low (1008 mb) was located
near eastern WY and the Nebraska panhandle with subtle sfc
troughing extending southward into E CO, resulting in a
disorganized wind field across the CWA Thurs afternoon. There is
a moisture gradient across the region, with dewpoints ranging
from the upper 30s along the Front Range, to near 60 at the
KS/CO border, to the upper 60s/low 70s in cntrl KS. This
moisture gradient is tightest near the KS/CO border, and the
NAMNest has consistently developed a storm within this zone.
While the precip chances are low at any one location, did feel
there was enough of a signal to add a slight chance mention to
the forecast, and there has been a developing Cu field across
the area where we thought precip development was most likely.
Forecast soundings have a deep dry adiabatic temperature profile
(up to 3km AGL) resulting in DCAPE values approaching 2000
J/kg, which will support gusty downdrafts with any convection
that does form. Hodographs are straight and suggest a west-to-
east storm motion, which will move these cells into an
environment of increasing convective inhibition, so any storms
are expected to be relatively short-lived.

Still anticipating another hot day on Fri, with highs of 103-107
across KS/NE, and in the low 100s in CO. Dewpoints trend lower,
though, below 50 degrees in most locations tomorrow afternoon,
which will help keep the heat indices in check. Another Heat
Advisory was issued, this one including areas from Red Willow to
Gove counties and eastward, as peak heat indices are expected to
be around 105 degrees in these counties. The forecasted fire
weather conditions remain on track, with conditions briefly
approaching near critical levels across eastern CO Friday
afternoon as RH values fall below 15% and westerly winds gust
20-25 mph (with isolated gusts up to 30 mph).

As noted above, guidance has trended much faster with the cold
front compared to forecasts from 24 hours ago. While this is
unlikely to impact the high temperature forecast for Fri, it
does speed up the arrival time of precip with 20-40% chances
moving into much of the CWA between 00z-06z Saturday (6pm MT Fri
to 12am MT Sat). The better moisture/instability will actually
be located behind the cold front, which based on forecast
soundings will feature a strong cap to sfc-based convection.
Thus, think the main hazard with any storms that develop ahead
of the front will be gusty winds as the low-level remain quite
dry ahead of the front. The Storm Prediction Center outlook for
Fri includes areas from Benkelman, NE to Norton, KS, in a
marginal risk (5%) for damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

The 'faster' trend described above with the approaching cold
front persists into Sat, with some guidance placing the front
completely south of the GLD CWA by Sat afternoon. If such a
solution verifies, it would result in a capped environment with
minimal precip through the day as upper level forcing is
expected to be weak. The earlier SPC outlook for Saturday
included areas from approximately Burlington, CO, to McCook, NE,
and southeastward in a marginal risk, but if current forecast
trends hold I suspect this outlook will be shifted southward in
future updates.

Precip chances increase Sat evening as scattered activity
develops along the front range and moves east. All of these
expected precip trends seem to be fairly well captured by the
latest blended guidance, which has a 20-40% chance of precip Fri
night, then is mostly dry through the day Sat before increasing
to 30-70% Sat evening (highest with westward extent). Precip chances
will persist into Sun as another upper level impulse shifts east over
the Rockies (30-50% chance). Despite the repeated precip
chances, the expectation is still that this activity will be
scattered in nature, so none of these days are expected to be
total washouts, and not everyone will see rain.

The upper level pattern becomes more zonal into next week, with
the storm track displaced to the north as subtle 500mb height
rises occur in response to an elongated ridge building over the
south-central Plains/southeastern US. The exception is Mon PM-
Tues, when a weak upper trough shifts across the area and could
support some precip activity (20-25% chance). Otherwise, the
forecast for next week trends drier and warmer, with PoPs below
20% outside of Mon PM-Tues. Temps are expected to rise from
highs in the mid 80s on Mon to mid 90s by Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 450 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

Main forecast challenge this evening will revolve around
the progression of a thunderstorm through northwest Kansas as
there is a chance this thunderstorm tracks in the vicinity of
MCK this evening. Primary threats include strong wind gusts and
a potential reduction in VIS and CIG, should the storm build
and track closer to the terminal. Otherwise, TAFs this update
indicate continued VFR conditions and generally light winds;
though an increase in northwest winds can be expected tomorrow
afternoon. &&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ002>004-
     014>016-028-029.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ003-004-015-
     016-029.
CO...None.
NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ080-081.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for NEZ081.

&&

SHORT TERM...Erwin
LONG TERM...Erwin
AVIATION...DeSmet

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
206 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025

KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029-NEZ079>081-082015-
Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Logan-
Gove-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
206 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 /306 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska and
northwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Heat Advisory is in effect for locations along and east of Highway
25 today until 9 PM CT. Heat indices of up to 106 degrees are
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A Heat Advisory has been issued from Red Willow to Gove Counties and
eastward on Friday. Heat indices of up to 107 degrees are expected.

Scattered thunderstorms return to the area Friday night through the
weekend. Potential hazards include hail larger than 1 inch and wind
gusts over 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

COZ090>092-KSZ027-041-042-082015-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Wallace-Greeley-Wichita-
206 PM MDT Thu Aug 7 2025 /306 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025/

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest Kansas and east
central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Temperatures of 100 to 105 degrees are expected today.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but wind gusts of 50 to 55
mph could occur with any storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Heat indices and air temperatures are expected to reach 100 to 103
degrees on Friday.

Scattered areas of briefly critical fire weather are possible Friday
afternoon in eastern Colorado.

Scattered thunderstorms return to the area Friday night through the
weekend. Potential hazards include hail larger than 1 inch and wind
gusts over 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

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