Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple waves of thunderstorms are expected this evening into
  the overnight hours. Some of these storms may have Large Hail,
  Damaging Winds and a tornado possible.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon
  along/near Highway 281. These storms could be severe as well.

- Cooler Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then warming to near
  climatic normals for late May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

The primary focus today has been on this evening and overnight
thunderstorm/severe forecast.

The models have been steady today, showing more coverage across
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas, than yesterdays
runs. The CAM guidance indicates the potential for a couple of
rounds or waves of thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The
first round will develop in the next hour or two, and arching
across much of the forecast area, and moving from southwest to
northeast with time. These storms could be severe as warm moist
air continues to advect northward. These storms are likely to
remain somewhat elevated at first. Instability decreases to the
north, but shear remains plentiful.

On its heels, the next round is firing as of 3:45 PM from
northeast Colorado southwest to west of Dodge City, KS. These
storms are expected to be severe. These storms will be round two
moving towards the area this evening with the chance for
supercells with very large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.
Some of these storms, especially those that begin in far NE
Colorado could persist and become a line and move eastward
during the overnight hours.

Tomorrow, the whole system will move eastward. A lull in
activity is expected during the morning hours, but then storms
could fire along the dryline, as well as the cold front, which
will be slightly behind the dryline. There remains a question on
where the convection will develop, but the most favored area is
along and and east of Highway 281 and track eastward during the
afternoon and evening hours. An additional question is how will
today's convection and any outflow boundaries impact the
evolution of tomorrow's convection.

Beyond these two days of severe weather, cooler air will settle
in with highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows Wednesday morning in
central Nebraska could bring a chance for some frost.

The remainder of the forecast, there are a few chances for
precipitation off and on and temperatures will be in the 70s
generally.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Thunderstorms have developed south of the terminals and they are
expected to move northward over the next hour or two. Kept
thunderstorms prevailing at both terminals for much of the
overnight hours.  East/southeast winds will persist and be
breezy for much of the overnight hours. MVFR to IFR ceilings are
possible towards the early morning hours at both terminals.

There is another round of thunderstorms possible tomorrow
afternoon. KGRI will have a higher likelihood of seeing
thunderstorms develop than KEAR, but how convection evolves
overnight could impact tomorrow's storm evolution.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
192030-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
326 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move from the southwest
to the northeast across the area this afternoon through the
evening and into tonight. Some of these storms are likely to be
severe, and the strongest storms may produce hail over 2 inches in
diameter, isolated tornadoes, and localized wind gusts up to 60
MPH. The main timeframe for severe weather is between 4pm to 3am.
Severe weather is possible across the entire area, but the most
favored area for very large hail and tornadoes is southwest of a
line from Lexington to Hebron.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Monday, and
some of these may also become severe. The highest risk is
expected to be near and east of Highway 281 in the 3pm to 10pm
timeframe. The primary hazard will be large hail, but an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Patchy frost is possible as temperatures fall into the mid 30s in
areas north and west of the tri-cities Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

Off and on chances for thunderstorms return to the area for the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1007 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0959 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Clay Center             40.53N 98.05W
05/18/2025  M53 MPH          Clay               NE   Mesonet

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1007 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ005-NEZ074-083>085-190345-
Phillips KS-Franklin NE-Webster NE-Kearney NE-Harlan NE-
1007 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS...
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER...FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN KEARNEY AND EAST
CENTRAL HARLAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 1006 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Naponee, or 24 miles northeast of Phillipsburg, moving northeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bloomington around 1010 PM CDT.
  Franklin around 1015 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for north central
Kansas...and south central Nebraska.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4051 9873 4035 9872 4035 9868 4020 9864
      4000 9902 4000 9907 3998 9907 3995 9912
      4017 9922
TIME...MOT...LOC 0306Z 226DEG 27KT 4007 9911

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Rossi

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1038 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

NEZ041-047>049-062>064-075>077-085>087-190600-
Nance-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Hall-Hamilton-York-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
Including the cities of Fullerton, Genoa, St. Paul, Central City,
Stromsburg, Osceola, Shelby, Polk, Grand Island, Aurora, York,
Hastings, Sutton, Harvard, Clay Center, Edgar, Fairfield, Geneva,
Exeter, Fairmont, Inavale, Red Cloud, Blue Hill, Rosemont,
Bladen, Bostwick, Superior, Nelson, Hebron, and Deshler
1038 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 AM CDT....

Strong winds behind a departing area of showers and thunderstorms
will continue to gust over 50 MPH through around 1 AM CDT. These
winds are then expected to diminish through the remainder of the
overnight hours. In addition to the widespread strong winds,
additional thunderstorms could impact these same parts of the
local area overnight, posing the threat for severe weather.

Stay informed of the weather situation tonight. Know your county,
as well as nearby cities and counties. Listen to weather radio or
local media.

Rossi

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1045 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Wood River        40.82N 98.61W
05/18/2025  M58 MPH          Hall               NE   Mesonet

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1053 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Roseland                40.47N 98.56W
05/18/2025  M56 MPH          Adams              NE   Mesonet

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1055 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 WSW Wood River        40.80N 98.66W
05/18/2025  M61 MPH          Hall               NE   Mesonet

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz