Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
632 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple waves of thunderstorms are expected this evening into
  the overnight hours. Some of these storms may have Large Hail,
  Damaging Winds and a tornado possible.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon
  along/near Highway 281. These storms could be severe as well.

- Cooler Tuesday and Tuesday night. Then warming to near
  climatic normals for late May.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

The primary focus today has been on this evening and overnight
thunderstorm/severe forecast.

The models have been steady today, showing more coverage across
south central Nebraska and north central Kansas, than yesterdays
runs. The CAM guidance indicates the potential for a couple of
rounds or waves of thunderstorms this evening and overnight. The
first round will develop in the next hour or two, and arching
across much of the forecast area, and moving from southwest to
northeast with time. These storms could be severe as warm moist
air continues to advect northward. These storms are likely to
remain somewhat elevated at first. Instability decreases to the
north, but shear remains plentiful.

On its heels, the next round is firing as of 3:45 PM from
northeast Colorado southwest to west of Dodge City, KS. These
storms are expected to be severe. These storms will be round two
moving towards the area this evening with the chance for
supercells with very large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.
Some of these storms, especially those that begin in far NE
Colorado could persist and become a line and move eastward
during the overnight hours.

Tomorrow, the whole system will move eastward. A lull in
activity is expected during the morning hours, but then storms
could fire along the dryline, as well as the cold front, which
will be slightly behind the dryline. There remains a question on
where the convection will develop, but the most favored area is
along and and east of Highway 281 and track eastward during the
afternoon and evening hours. An additional question is how will
today's convection and any outflow boundaries impact the
evolution of tomorrow's convection.

Beyond these two days of severe weather, cooler air will settle
in with highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows Wednesday morning in
central Nebraska could bring a chance for some frost.

The remainder of the forecast, there are a few chances for
precipitation off and on and temperatures will be in the 70s
generally.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Thunderstorms have developed south of the terminals and they are
expected to move northward over the next hour or two. Kept
thunderstorms prevailing at both terminals for much of the
overnight hours.  East/southeast winds will persist and be
breezy for much of the overnight hours. MVFR to IFR ceilings are
possible towards the early morning hours at both terminals.

There is another round of thunderstorms possible tomorrow
afternoon. KGRI will have a higher likelihood of seeing
thunderstorms develop than KEAR, but how convection evolves
overnight could impact tomorrow's storm evolution.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
326 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
192030-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
326 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move from the southwest
to the northeast across the area this afternoon through the
evening and into tonight. Some of these storms are likely to be
severe, and the strongest storms may produce hail over 2 inches in
diameter, isolated tornadoes, and localized wind gusts up to 60
MPH. The main timeframe for severe weather is between 4pm to 3am.
Severe weather is possible across the entire area, but the most
favored area for very large hail and tornadoes is southwest of a
line from Lexington to Hebron.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Monday, and
some of these may also become severe. The highest risk is
expected to be near and east of Highway 281 in the 3pm to 10pm
timeframe. The primary hazard will be large hail, but an isolated
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Patchy frost is possible as temperatures fall into the mid 30s in
areas north and west of the tri-cities Wednesday night into
Thursday morning.

Off and on chances for thunderstorms return to the area for the
Memorial Day weekend.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
843 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Smithfield         40.60N 99.71W
05/18/2025  M52 MPH          Gosper             NE   Mesonet

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
851 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 SW Boelus             41.01N 98.78W
05/18/2025  M65 MPH          Buffalo            NE   Mesonet

&&

NOAA/NWS/Moritz

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Hastings NE
852 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Rain             6 N Esbon               39.92N 98.43W
05/18/2025  M5.60 Inch       Jewell             KS   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reports 5.6 inches of rainfall so
            far as well as water over the road.

&&