Tornado Warning 24, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Friday,
  some of which may be severe.

- There will also be a threat for flooding through tomorrow with
  much of North Texas receiving 1-3" of rain with isolated
  amounts as high as 5-6".

- Nice weather arrives in time for the weekend, followed by more
  storm chances early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

An overnight storm complex is currently approaching the western
CWA border, and should continue east to the I-35 corridor of North
Texas 8-10 AM. An overall weakening trend has been observed, but
occasional severe storms continue form along the line. Even if the
line weakens, additional development late morning and this
afternoon will come with a threat for severe storms into the
evening hours, with all modes of severe weather possible. Heavy
rain will also lead to flooding in some areas, particularly along
the Red River where a Flood Watch remain in effect through
tonight.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday/

A shortwave trough currently located over the Four Corners region
will provide multiple rounds of thunderstorms across North and
Central Texas as it advances east over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Ongoing convection over the western Red River counties has had a
history of large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain over the
past few hours. The presence of a quasi-stationary front in that
area and a low level jet will keep these storms going for a few
more hours, before lifting north of the Red River during the
overnight hours. A Tornado Watch will hence remain in effect for
that area until 1 AM.

Focus will then shift to the west as the shortwave approaches the
Panhandle and Texas South Plains. A new batch of convection
recently developed between Midland and San Angelo, also in the
vicinity of the meandering surface front. Activity will continue
to increase in coverage, eventually growing into a qlcs at some
point during the overnight hours. Recent guidance advances this
newly formed line east to near the western border of the CWA
around daybreak. The line may begin to weaken after sunrise as the
low level jet mixes out, but should still reach the I-35 corridor
mid to late morning. A damaging wind threat may accompany these
storms across the northwest half of the CWA Wednesday morning.

New development should then occur Wednesday afternoon as the
shortwave continues east across Northwest Texas and large scale
lift increases, with mesoscale boundaries providing focus for
surface-based development. Plentiful deep layer shear and
good instability will support severe storm development with large
hail and damaging winds both possible. A tornado threat may also
exist based on good amounts of 0-1 km SRH (300+ m**2/s**2) as
storms push east of I-35/35E Wednesday afternoon. Heavy rain due
to training convection is also a concern, and the ongoing Flood
Watch will remain in effect through Thursday morning across the
Red River counties where heavy rain has already fallen on
multiple occasions.

One remaining round of convection will then form Wednesday evening
as the shortwave sweeps through the Southern Plains, with
activity focused along the now southward advancing cold front. The
frontal convection will also contain a severe threat while
pushing southeast through Central Texas Wednesday evening,
eventually exiting into Southeast Texas overnight Wednesday night.
The front will stall somewhere near the southern boundary of the
CWA on Thursday, which may lead to isolated thunderstorm
development Thursday afternoon, but nice weather can be expected
across the rest of the region.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/

As the midweek shortwave exits to the Ohio Valley, another
shortwave will dive southeast through the Plains at the start of
the period. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
Central and Southern Plains, bringing another round of convection
to North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Convection will be
focused along a stronger cold front, which will be driven
completely through the CWA Friday evening. A damaging wind threat
will likely accompany these storms as they push south through the
region. The passage of the front and development of a ridge aloft
will then provide a couple of nice weather days this weekend.
Saturday through Monday will feature mostly sunny days and clear
cool nights with lows in the 50s and 60s, and highs mainly in the
70s. A slow-moving upper low will then bring more storm chances as
it emerges from the Rockies into the Plains during the early to
middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Borderline MVFR/IFR cigs will hang around this morning ahead of a
complex of thunderstorms (storms will encroach on the Metroplex
14-16Z). Additional development is expected along outflow
boundaries this afternoon, warranting a tempo group from 17-21Z.
Storms should hold off at KACT until later in the afternoon, with
a TEMPO from 23-02Z this evening. Convection will exit to the
south and east this evening, followed by a return to MVFR
overnight tonight.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening
along and east of I-35. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  64  86  65  76 /  90  50   5  30  80
Waco                82  67  88  65  81 /  80  40  10  20  80
Paris               77  63  82  62  73 /  90  70  10  30  60
Denton              77  58  84  60  73 /  90  50   0  30  80
McKinney            77  63  84  63  74 /  90  60   5  30  70
Dallas              79  64  87  65  78 /  90  50   5  30  80
Terrell             79  65  84  64  77 /  90  50   5  20  70
Corsicana           82  68  86  67  79 /  90  50  10  20  80
Temple              85  67  90  66  83 /  80  40  10  20  80
Mineral Wells       82  58  86  61  76 /  90  30   0  30  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>095-100>107.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ091>095-100>102-115-116.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1010 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Celina             33.30N 96.81W
04/30/2025  M68 MPH          Collin             TX   Amateur Radio

            68 mph wind gust at Dallas North Tollway and
            Hwy 428.

&&

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