Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected through Friday,
  some of which may be severe.

- There will also be a threat for flooding through tomorrow with
  much of North Texas receiving 1-3" of rain with isolated
  amounts as high as 5-6".

- Nice weather arrives in time for the weekend, followed by more
  storm chances early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

An overnight storm complex is currently approaching the western
CWA border, and should continue east to the I-35 corridor of North
Texas 8-10 AM. An overall weakening trend has been observed, but
occasional severe storms continue form along the line. Even if the
line weakens, additional development late morning and this
afternoon will come with a threat for severe storms into the
evening hours, with all modes of severe weather possible. Heavy
rain will also lead to flooding in some areas, particularly along
the Red River where a Flood Watch remain in effect through
tonight.

30

Previous Discussion:
/Through Thursday/

A shortwave trough currently located over the Four Corners region
will provide multiple rounds of thunderstorms across North and
Central Texas as it advances east over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Ongoing convection over the western Red River counties has had a
history of large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain over the
past few hours. The presence of a quasi-stationary front in that
area and a low level jet will keep these storms going for a few
more hours, before lifting north of the Red River during the
overnight hours. A Tornado Watch will hence remain in effect for
that area until 1 AM.

Focus will then shift to the west as the shortwave approaches the
Panhandle and Texas South Plains. A new batch of convection
recently developed between Midland and San Angelo, also in the
vicinity of the meandering surface front. Activity will continue
to increase in coverage, eventually growing into a qlcs at some
point during the overnight hours. Recent guidance advances this
newly formed line east to near the western border of the CWA
around daybreak. The line may begin to weaken after sunrise as the
low level jet mixes out, but should still reach the I-35 corridor
mid to late morning. A damaging wind threat may accompany these
storms across the northwest half of the CWA Wednesday morning.

New development should then occur Wednesday afternoon as the
shortwave continues east across Northwest Texas and large scale
lift increases, with mesoscale boundaries providing focus for
surface-based development. Plentiful deep layer shear and
good instability will support severe storm development with large
hail and damaging winds both possible. A tornado threat may also
exist based on good amounts of 0-1 km SRH (300+ m**2/s**2) as
storms push east of I-35/35E Wednesday afternoon. Heavy rain due
to training convection is also a concern, and the ongoing Flood
Watch will remain in effect through Thursday morning across the
Red River counties where heavy rain has already fallen on
multiple occasions.

One remaining round of convection will then form Wednesday evening
as the shortwave sweeps through the Southern Plains, with
activity focused along the now southward advancing cold front. The
frontal convection will also contain a severe threat while
pushing southeast through Central Texas Wednesday evening,
eventually exiting into Southeast Texas overnight Wednesday night.
The front will stall somewhere near the southern boundary of the
CWA on Thursday, which may lead to isolated thunderstorm
development Thursday afternoon, but nice weather can be expected
across the rest of the region.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1217 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025/
/Thursday Night Onward/

As the midweek shortwave exits to the Ohio Valley, another
shortwave will dive southeast through the Plains at the start of
the period. Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
Central and Southern Plains, bringing another round of convection
to North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Convection will be
focused along a stronger cold front, which will be driven
completely through the CWA Friday evening. A damaging wind threat
will likely accompany these storms as they push south through the
region. The passage of the front and development of a ridge aloft
will then provide a couple of nice weather days this weekend.
Saturday through Monday will feature mostly sunny days and clear
cool nights with lows in the 50s and 60s, and highs mainly in the
70s. A slow-moving upper low will then bring more storm chances as
it emerges from the Rockies into the Plains during the early to
middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Borderline MVFR/IFR cigs will hang around this morning ahead of a
complex of thunderstorms (storms will encroach on the Metroplex
14-16Z). Additional development is expected along outflow
boundaries this afternoon, warranting a tempo group from 17-21Z.
Storms should hold off at KACT until later in the afternoon, with
a TEMPO from 23-02Z this evening. Convection will exit to the
south and east this evening, followed by a return to MVFR
overnight tonight.

30

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this afternoon and evening
along and east of I-35. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  64  86  65  76 /  90  50   5  30  80
Waco                82  67  88  65  81 /  80  40  10  20  80
Paris               77  63  82  62  73 /  90  70  10  30  60
Denton              77  58  84  60  73 /  90  50   0  30  80
McKinney            77  63  84  63  74 /  90  60   5  30  70
Dallas              79  64  87  65  78 /  90  50   5  30  80
Terrell             79  65  84  64  77 /  90  50   5  20  70
Corsicana           82  68  86  67  79 /  90  50  10  20  80
Temple              85  67  90  66  83 /  80  40  10  20  80
Mineral Wells       82  58  86  61  76 /  90  30   0  30  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ091>095-100>107.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for
TXZ091>095-100>102-115-116.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
617 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

TXZ100-115-301215-
Stephens TX-Young TX-
617 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Young and
northwestern Stephens Counties through 715 AM CDT...

At 616 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Olney to Woodson to Albany. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Olney around 620 AM CDT.
  Lake Graham and Hubbard Creek Reservoir around 635 AM CDT.
  Crystal Falls and Graham around 645 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Eliasville, Ivan,
Newcastle, Murray, Jean, Padgett, Loving, South Bend, and Us-
180 Near The Shackelford-Stephens County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 9910 3296 9895 3340 9895 3340 9842
      3308 9843 3273 9890 3268 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 1116Z 251DEG 29KT 3336 9888 3308 9892 3267 9947

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
710 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

TXZ091-100-101-115-116-301300-
Palo Pinto TX-Stephens TX-Young TX-Montague TX-Jack TX-
710 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Montague, eastern Young, Jack, northern Stephens and northwestern
Palo Pinto Counties through 800 AM CDT...

At 709 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Windthorst to Breckenridge. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Lake Graham, Graham, and Breckenridge around 715 AM CDT.
  Bryson around 720 AM CDT.
  Possum Kingdom Lake around 725 AM CDT.
  Possum Kingdom State Park around 735 AM CDT.
  Newport around 745 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Jermyn, Eliasville,
Bartons Chapel, Lost Creek Reservoir, Stoneburg, Cundiff, Antelope,
Ivan, Jean, and Loving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9859 3340 9842 3347 9842 3347 9798
      3368 9798 3374 9770 3276 9838 3268 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1209Z 247DEG 28KT 3345 9832 3275 9891

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
800 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

TXZ091>093-101>103-301400-
Denton TX-Grayson TX-Cooke TX-Montague TX-Wise TX-Jack TX-
800 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Montague, Wise,
northwestern Denton, eastern Jack, Cooke and northwestern Grayson
Counties through 900 AM CDT...

At 800 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from St. Jo to 7 miles north of Graford. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Jo, Cundiff, Rosston, Callisburg, Valley View, Bulcher, Park
Springs, Capps Corner, Locust, Crafton, Nocona Hills, Gibtown,
Bridgeport, Bowie, Stony, Joplin, Chico, Bartons Chapel, Vineyard,
and Wizard Wells.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 479 and 503.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9691 3387 9688 3387 9680 3382 9676
      3384 9669 3392 9667 3389 9663 3299 9759
      3301 9837 3395 9760 3395 9759 3392 9760
      3391 9747 3382 9743 3386 9726 3392 9721
      3386 9717 3380 9721 3372 9714 3395 9698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1300Z 266DEG 28KT 3369 9750 3305 9822

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Langfeld