Tornado Warning 19, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
719 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing this evening
  across our west and northwest counties. Very large hail and a
  few tornadoes are the main threat. Heavy rainfall may cause
  flash flooding tonight.

- The active weather pattern will persist through next week with
  additional storm chances Tuesday night through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Visible satellite imagery shows some fairly substantial breaks in
the cloud cover across North Texas this afternoon. With
temperatures climbing into the mid 70s and dewpoints in the mid
60s, the atmosphere is steadily recovering in the wake of morning
convection. This is supported by RAP objective analysis which has
an axis of 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE slowly spreading back to the north
and west. At the surface, our slow moving frontal boundary is
draped across our far northwest counties from Abilene to Graham
and into south-central Oklahoma. Moisture convergence along this
boundary is locally maximized across Young County and this is the
area where we'll watch for vigorous convective development later
this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development should be intense
with all modes of severe weather possible including very large
hail and a few tornadoes, but quick upscale growth into linear
segments along the front is expected into the late evening hours.
Low level winds will likely remain backed into intermittent waves
of lower pressure along the frontal boundary through the late
evening. This may periodically enhance the tornado threat into
tonight, although there's really no preferred area for this to
occur other than broadly across our northwest counties. Low level
winds have backed substantially over the last hour, so we'll
continue to monitor this through the afternoon as initial storms
would be discrete and most likely to produce a tornado. During
the overnight hours, the line of thunderstorms will be slow to
move eastward, allowing for training thunderstorms across our
northwest counties. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is likely in
this area with isolated totals approaching 6 inches. The current
Flood Watch will remain unchanged for this forecast.

The complex of storms will approach the I-35 corridor by morning,
but will quickly be in a weakening state as the main upper trough
pulls off to the northeast. Most areas will pick up some rainfall
through mid morning on Sunday, but areas to the south and east of
the Metroplex will see lesser totals. This whole area of rain will
quickly move east through the morning with clearing occurring
through the afternoon hours. All precipitation should end across
our far eastern counties by evening with mostly clear and drier
conditions expected Sunday night.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 121 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025/
/Monday through Saturday/

A lull in the activity is expected Monday into Tuesday as our
frontal boundary remains draped across Southeast Texas. We'll see
generally mostly sunny skies with near normal temperatures Monday
and Tuesday, but moisture will quickly start to return Tuesday
afternoon as southerly winds become re-established. Several fast
moving disturbances will spread through the Southern Plains
Tuesday through Friday and we'll continue to see a period of
active weather including the threat for severe storms.
Thunderstorms should develop along a dryline Tuesday afternoon to
our west and near the retreating warm front across our Central TX
counties. Activity will become more widespread Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. We'll have high PoPs on Wednesday, but if an
organized complex of storms does move through Tuesday night, then
these will likely be too high. A stronger disturbance is expected
to move through on Thursday with additional chances for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This activity should move east
of the area on Friday. The active pattern looks to continue beyond
next weekend.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR ceilings prevail across the terminals ahead of a frontal
boundary that remains stalled east of KSPS to KABI. Scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms will continue developing along and
north of the front this evening, generally staying northwest of
the Metroplex. With weak scattered convection developing out ahead
of the loosely organizing line, VCTS will be maintained through
03Z for the North Texas TAF sites. The better potential for direct
terminal impacts will still be associated with the more
widespread storms arriving early Sunday morning as the front
finally marches east. There will also be a westward wind shift
(250-270) as the storms weaken and exit the area. Flight
conditions should quickly improve in the wake of this activity
with VFR expected through the end of the period as winds become
light and northwesterly.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested northwest of the DFW
Metroplex. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  76  55  81  59 /  90  60   0   0   0
Waco                62  80  52  82  59 /  50  60   5   0   0
Paris               64  74  50  77  54 /  50  80  10   0   0
Denton              57  73  48  79  54 /  80  50   0   0   0
McKinney            62  74  50  79  56 /  60  60   0   0   0
Dallas              63  77  55  80  59 /  80  60   0   0   0
Terrell             64  76  51  80  58 /  50  70   5   0   0
Corsicana           67  79  55  82  61 /  40  70  10   0   0
Temple              63  80  53  85  61 /  50  60   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       56  74  49  82  54 /  90  20   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TXZ091>093-100>102.

Tornado Watch until midnight CDT tonight for TXZ091>093-101>103-
116-117.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ100-115-129-130-141-142.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
829 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Tornado          8 NNW Hico              32.09N 98.07W
04/19/2025                   Erath              TX   Public

            Photo of tornado in progress north of Hico
            on social media. Location approximate and
            based on TDS on radar.

&&

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
843 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tornado          10 ESE Stephenville     32.14N 98.06W
04/19/2025                   Erath              TX   Dept of Highways

            Tornado visible to the southwest on TXDOT
            camera located at US 67 and Hwy 220.
            Location approximate.

&&

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
850 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     Flash Flood      Nocona                  33.78N 97.73W
04/19/2025                   Montague           TX   Amateur Radio

            Reports of water coming into homes, water
            over roadways, and stranded cars in Nocona.

&&

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
857 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     Flash Flood      Nocona                  33.78N 97.73W
04/19/2025                   Montague           TX   Law Enforcement

            US 82 closed in both directions due to
            flooding per Montague Sheriff Office.

&&

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
926 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Tornado          4 SW Tolar              32.36N 97.97W
04/19/2025                   Hood               TX   Public

            Social media photos of a tornado southwest
            of Tolar. Location approximate.

&&

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1010 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     Tornado          7 WSW Weatherford       32.71N 97.87W
04/19/2025                   Parker             TX   Public

            Parker County Sheriff Office observed a
            tornado south of I-20 at mile marker 403
            moving NE. Location approximate.

&&

Shamburger