Tornado Warning 11, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
121 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A lull in precipitation this afternoon will allow the atmosphere
  to recover after morning storms.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to redevelop late
  this afternoon and evening across our west and northwest
  counties. Very large hail is the main threat. Heavy rainfall may
  cause flash flooding tonight.

- The active weather pattern will persist through next week with
  additional storm chances Tuesday night through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/

Visible satellite imagery shows some fairly substantial breaks in
the cloud cover across North Texas this afternoon. With
temperatures climbing into the mid 70s and dewpoints in the mid
60s, the atmosphere is steadily recovering in the wake of morning
convection. This is supported by RAP objective analysis which has
an axis of 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE slowly spreading back to the north
and west. At the surface, our slow moving frontal boundary is
draped across our far northwest counties from Abilene to Graham
and into south-central Oklahoma. Moisture convergence along this
boundary is locally maximized across Young County and this is the
area where we'll watch for vigorous convective development later
this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development should be intense
with all modes of severe weather possible including very large
hail and a few tornadoes, but quick upscale growth into linear
segments along the front is expected into the late evening hours.
Low level winds will likely remain backed into intermittent waves
of lower pressure along the frontal boundary through the late
evening. This may periodically enhance the tornado threat into
tonight, although there's really no preferred area for this to
occur other than broadly across our northwest counties. Low level
winds have backed substantially over the last hour, so we'll
continue to monitor this through the afternoon as initial storms
would be discrete and most likely to produce a tornado. During
the overnight hours, the line of thunderstorms will be slow to
move eastward, allowing for training thunderstorms across our
northwest counties. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is likely in
this area with isolated totals approaching 6 inches. The current
Flood Watch will remain unchanged for this forecast.

The complex of storms will approach the I-35 corridor by morning,
but will quickly be in a weakening state as the main upper trough
pulls off to the northeast. Most areas will pick up some rainfall
through mid morning on Sunday, but areas to the south and east of
the Metroplex will see lesser totals. This whole area of rain will
quickly move east through the morning with clearing occurring
through the afternoon hours. All precipitation should end across
our far eastern counties by evening with mostly clear and drier
conditions expected Sunday night.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday through Saturday/

A lull in the activity is expected Monday into Tuesday as our
frontal boundary remains draped across Southeast Texas. We'll see
generally mostly sunny skies with near normal temperatures Monday
and Tuesday, but moisture will quickly start to return Tuesday
afternoon as southerly winds become re-established. Several fast
moving disturbances will spread through the Southern Plains
Tuesday through Friday and we'll continue to see a period of
active weather including the threat for severe storms.
Thunderstorms should develop along a dryline Tuesday afternoon to
our west and near the retreating warm front across our Central TX
counties. Activity will become more widespread Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. We'll have high PoPs on Wednesday, but if an
organized complex of storms does move through Tuesday night, then
these will likely be too high. A stronger disturbance is expected
to move through on Thursday with additional chances for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. This activity should move east
of the area on Friday. The active pattern looks to continue beyond
next weekend.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

VFR prevails across the region in the wake of earlier showers and
storms although there are some scattered light showers throughout
North and Central TX. The atmosphere is undergoing some recovery
this afternoon and additional thunderstorms are expected to
develop later in the day, mainly to the west and northwest of the
major airports. We'll have a VCTS in from 23-02Z given some
potential for storms to develop very near the major airports, but
better storm chances are expected during the late overnight hours.
We'll have prevailing TSRA from 10-13Z with west winds expected
behind the line of convection. Thunderstorms should be in a
weakening state by early Sunday morning. VFR will prevail by late
morning through the rest of Sunday afternoon.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Limited spotter activation may be requested this evening across
North Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any
reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are
appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  64  77  55  80 /  90  90  60   0   0
Waco                83  65  80  52  82 /  40  60  70   5   5
Paris               79  66  75  50  78 /  60  30  80  10   0
Denton              76  60  74  48  79 / 100 100  60   0   0
McKinney            77  64  75  51  78 /  90  80  70   0   0
Dallas              79  65  77  55  81 /  90  80  70   0   0
Terrell             80  66  76  52  79 /  50  40  60   5   5
Corsicana           83  68  79  55  82 /  20  20  60  10  10
Temple              84  65  80  53  85 /  30  60  70   5  10
Mineral Wells       77  57  76  48  82 /  90 100  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>093-100>102.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
551 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

TXZ101-192315-
Jack TX-
551 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Jack
County through 615 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bryson, or 13 miles southwest of Jacksboro, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Jacksboro and Fort Richardson State Park around 605 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Vineyard, Bartons
Chapel, and Lost Creek Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 9843 3338 9831 3316 9795 3300 9826
      3301 9830 3301 9843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 219DEG 28KT 3308 9832

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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