High Wind Warning 3, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

504 
WWUS73 KFSD 181924
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
224 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-190500-
/O.CON.KFSD.HW.W.0003.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena
Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
Including the cities of Holstein, Ida Grove, Sanborn, Elk Point,
Ponca, Cherokee, Spirit Lake, Le Mars, North Sioux City, Arnolds
Park, South Sioux City, Spencer, Hull, Orange City, Sheldon,
Sibley, Rock Valley, Sioux Center, Storm Lake, Hartley,
Wakefield, Allen, Sioux City, Beresford, Battle Creek, Hawarden,
Milford, Alcester, and Jefferson
224 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Iowa, northeast 
  Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-053>056-058>070-
190500-
/O.NEW.KFSD.WI.Y.0009.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Lyon-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Including the cities of Ivanhoe, Mountain Lake, Howard, Delmont,
Tabor, White Lake, Fulda, Hendricks, Avon, Montrose, Sioux Falls,
De Smet, Armour, Marion, Tripp, Springfield, Madison, Emery,
Vermillion, George, Orland, Wagner, Worthington, Salem, Parkston,
Hurley, Chancellor, Clayton, Stickney, Inwood, Lake Andes, Marty,
Luverne, Freeman, Centerville, Windom, Rock Rapids, Canton,
Brookings, Viborg, Larchwood, Pipestone, Lennox, Plankinton,
Menno, Tyndall, Irene, Marshall, Parker, Lake Preston, Arlington,
Flandreau, Mitchell, Scotland, Lake Benton, Canistota,
Bridgewater, Harrisburg, Yankton, Tyler, Alexandria, Slayton,
Jackson, Woonsocket, Platte, Tea, Corsica, and Lakefield
224 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and east 
  central, south central, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Dux

252 
WWUS73 KFSD 190251
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
951 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-191100-
/O.CON.KFSD.HW.W.0003.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena
Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
Including the cities of Sibley, Hull, Battle Creek, Jefferson,
Arnolds Park, Wakefield, Ponca, Le Mars, Storm Lake, Elk Point,
Sheldon, Holstein, Beresford, Ida Grove, Hawarden, Spirit Lake,
Sioux Center, Orange City, Alcester, Milford, Cherokee, Hartley,
Allen, Sanborn, North Sioux City, Spencer, South Sioux City,
Sioux City, and Rock Valley
951 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT 
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Iowa, northeast 
  Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-053>056-058>070-
191100-
/O.CON.KFSD.WI.Y.0009.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Lyon-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Including the cities of Ivanhoe, Hendricks, Howard, Tripp,
Tyndall, Slayton, Tyler, Lake Andes, Inwood, White Lake,
Centerville, Madison, Sioux Falls, Scotland, Larchwood, George,
Woonsocket, Hurley, Marshall, Canistota, Yankton, Parker,
Stickney, Emery, Springfield, Delmont, Platte, Orland, Mountain
Lake, Viborg, Vermillion, Lennox, Plankinton, Fulda, Arlington,
Wagner, Windom, Pipestone, Menno, Tabor, Parkston, Armour,
Mitchell, Marty, Rock Rapids, Lakefield, Avon, Chancellor,
Bridgewater, Canton, Luverne, Flandreau, Alexandria, Corsica,
Montrose, Lake Benton, Marion, Tea, Harrisburg, Salem, Brookings,
Freeman, Clayton, Worthington, Jackson, Lake Preston, Irene, and
De Smet
951 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and east 
  central, south central, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

JM

737 
WWUS73 KFSD 190809
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
309 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-191615-
/O.CON.KFSD.HW.W.0003.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena
Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
Including the cities of Le Mars, Jefferson, Cherokee, Rock
Valley, Milford, Wakefield, Alcester, Spirit Lake, Arnolds Park,
Ponca, South Sioux City, North Sioux City, Hull, Allen, Sioux
Center, Elk Point, Sanborn, Beresford, Spencer, Orange City,
Storm Lake, Hartley, Sheldon, Holstein, Sioux City, Battle Creek,
Ida Grove, Hawarden, and Sibley
309 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 
PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Iowa, northeast 
  Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-053>056-058>070-
191615-
/O.CON.KFSD.WI.Y.0009.250319T1200Z-250320T0000Z/
Lyon-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Including the cities of Montrose, Viborg, Mitchell, Sioux Falls,
Marty, Parkston, Corsica, White Lake, Freeman, Tripp, Pipestone,
Tabor, Worthington, Howard, Delmont, Yankton, Wagner, Madison,
Flandreau, Chancellor, Lakefield, Fulda, Rock Rapids, Windom,
Stickney, Menno, Ivanhoe, Irene, Slayton, George, Bridgewater,
Hendricks, Platte, Brookings, Lennox, Arlington, Tyndall,
Jackson, Mountain Lake, Lake Benton, Springfield, Parker, Inwood,
Canistota, Tyler, Lake Preston, Luverne, Armour, Emery, Clayton,
Centerville, Orland, Plankinton, Canton, Scotland, Larchwood,
Vermillion, Hurley, Tea, Salem, De Smet, Marion, Woonsocket,
Harrisburg, Avon, Marshall, Lake Andes, and Alexandria
309 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM 
CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and east 
  central, south central, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

JH

902 
WWUS73 KFSD 191439
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
939 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-192245-
/O.CON.KFSD.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250320T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena
Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
Including the cities of Beresford, Cherokee, Battle Creek,
Sheldon, Sanborn, Le Mars, Rock Valley, North Sioux City,
Jefferson, Hawarden, Sioux Center, Wakefield, Arnolds Park, Ida
Grove, Storm Lake, Alcester, South Sioux City, Orange City,
Ponca, Elk Point, Sioux City, Spencer, Hartley, Hull, Spirit
Lake, Allen, Holstein, Sibley, and Milford
939 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Iowa, northeast 
  Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-053>056-058>070-
192245-
/O.CON.KFSD.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250320T0000Z/
Lyon-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Including the cities of Marion, Lake Preston, Luverne, Arlington,
George, Tyler, Emery, Inwood, Flandreau, Mitchell, Corsica,
Brookings, Platte, Parker, De Smet, Wagner, Lakefield,
Woonsocket, Canton, Howard, Chancellor, Armour, Rock Rapids,
Mountain Lake, Fulda, Parkston, Scotland, Hurley, Lennox,
Bridgewater, Menno, Hendricks, Canistota, Montrose, Lake Andes,
Harrisburg, Avon, Orland, White Lake, Viborg, Stickney, Tea,
Delmont, Tabor, Alexandria, Tripp, Pipestone, Springfield,
Windom, Jackson, Freeman, Vermillion, Plankinton, Larchwood,
Yankton, Sioux Falls, Madison, Worthington, Clayton, Marshall,
Slayton, Centerville, Irene, Tyndall, Salem, Ivanhoe, Marty, and
Lake Benton
939 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and east 
  central, south central, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Weisser

147 
WWUS73 KFSD 192236
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
536 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-200000-
/O.CON.KFSD.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250320T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena
Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
Including the cities of Ponca, Sanborn, South Sioux City,
Spencer, Battle Creek, Milford, Alcester, Beresford, Spirit Lake,
Elk Point, Sibley, Arnolds Park, Sheldon, Storm Lake, Ida Grove,
Hawarden, Le Mars, Jefferson, Sioux City, Holstein, Allen, North
Sioux City, Sioux Center, Cherokee, Wakefield, Orange City,
Hartley, Hull, and Rock Valley
536 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Iowa, northeast 
  Nebraska, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-053>056-058>070-
200000-
/O.CON.KFSD.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250320T0000Z/
Lyon-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Including the cities of Freeman, Larchwood, Chancellor, Howard,
Marshall, White Lake, Parkston, Stickney, Wagner, Hendricks,
Marty, Plankinton, Platte, Corsica, Arlington, Irene, Ivanhoe,
Avon, Madison, Canistota, Tyler, Marion, Canton, Lake Andes,
George, Lakefield, Tripp, Mitchell, Menno, Springfield,
Vermillion, Windom, Emery, Clayton, Centerville, Montrose,
Armour, Sioux Falls, Scotland, Luverne, Hurley, Inwood, Delmont,
Rock Rapids, Worthington, Viborg, Tea, Harrisburg, Yankton,
Pipestone, Parker, Lennox, Woonsocket, Slayton, Mountain Lake,
Flandreau, Brookings, De Smet, Lake Benton, Alexandria, Jackson,
Tabor, Bridgewater, Salem, Tyndall, Lake Preston, Orland, and
Fulda
536 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Iowa, southwest Minnesota, and east 
  central, south central, and southeast South Dakota.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

Meyers

690 
WWUS73 KFSD 192351
NPWFSD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-200100-
/O.EXP.KFSD.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-250320T0000Z/
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena
Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
Including the cities of Ponca, Sanborn, South Sioux City,
Spencer, Battle Creek, Milford, Alcester, Beresford, Spirit Lake,
Elk Point, Sibley, Arnolds Park, Sheldon, Storm Lake, Ida Grove,
Hawarden, Le Mars, Jefferson, Sioux City, Holstein, Allen, North
Sioux City, Sioux Center, Cherokee, Wakefield, Orange City,
Hartley, Hull, and Rock Valley
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds continue to weaken early this evening, allowing for the High 
Wind Warning to expire.

$$

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ039-040-053>056-058>070-
200100-
/O.EXP.KFSD.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-250320T0000Z/
Lyon-Lincoln-Lyon-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-Pipestone-Rock-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Aurora-Davison-
Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-
Lincoln-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
Including the cities of Freeman, Larchwood, Chancellor, Howard,
Marshall, White Lake, Parkston, Stickney, Wagner, Hendricks,
Marty, Plankinton, Platte, Corsica, Arlington, Irene, Ivanhoe,
Avon, Madison, Canistota, Tyler, Marion, Canton, Lake Andes,
George, Lakefield, Tripp, Mitchell, Menno, Springfield,
Vermillion, Windom, Emery, Clayton, Centerville, Montrose,
Armour, Sioux Falls, Scotland, Luverne, Hurley, Inwood, Delmont,
Rock Rapids, Worthington, Viborg, Tea, Harrisburg, Yankton,
Pipestone, Parker, Lennox, Woonsocket, Slayton, Mountain Lake,
Flandreau, Brookings, De Smet, Lake Benton, Alexandria, Jackson,
Tabor, Bridgewater, Salem, Tyndall, Lake Preston, Orland, and
Fulda
651 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds continue to weaken early this evening, allowing for the Wind 
Advisory to expire.

$$

Meyers

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1031 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another strong spring system moves through the region Tuesday
  afternoon into Wednesday evening. Hazards include: rain,
  thunderstorms - low risk of strong to severe, strong winds,
  and accumulating snowfall. Wintry mix is possible as rain
  changes over to snow.

- Exact snowfall amounts remain uncertain; however, confidence
  is increasing that the heaviest snowfall (6+ inches possible)
  will be somewhere across Nebraska/Iowa/Minnesota. However,
  exactly where the band sets up is uncertain and may still
  shift. A tight gradient in snowfall amounts is expected on the
  northern edge.

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for portions of far
  southeastern South Dakota, far northeastern Nebraska, far
  southwestern Minnesota, and northwestern Iowa for potential
  blizzard conditions on Wednesday.

- A High Wind Watch is in effect for northeastern Nebraska, far
  southeastern South Dakota, and most of northwestern Iowa for
  Wednesday due to the potential for strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT: Well above average temperatures, dry air, and
breezy winds continue to lead to near critical to critical fire
concerns through the evening areas for areas without snowpack. More
details of on-going Red Flag Warnings and fire concerns in the Fire
Weather section of this discussion.

Temperatures have warmed today into the 60s (snowpack) to 80 degrees
in Sioux City. Expect the westerly wind gusts around 35 mph to taper
off through the evening and tonight. Winds shift more northeasterly
through the overnight hours, with gusts increasing toward daybreak.
Mild tonight with temperatures in the 30s. Mid and high clouds
continue to increase ahead of our next system. Although some hi-res
guidance is bringing light precipitation to areas along and north of
I-90 tonight, dry subcloud layer evidenced by soundings leads to low
confidence, and will keep things dry for now. If precip does fall, a
sprinkle or a flurry is expected.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A somewhat similar system to last weekend is
poised to sweep across the Plains mid this week. Given the multiple
hazards, will provide a synoptic summary with details on each point
below (numbered paragraphs).

Summary: Surface low ejects out of the Rockies tonight, deepening as
it slides to the northeast through the day on Tuesday into
Wednesday. Meanwhile, mid level low and upper level trough slide
east out of the Rockies, deepening over the Plains. Forcing
increases as the low deepens with moisture advecting in from the
southeasterly flow. With warmer temperatures for the onset of the
event, expect rain as the initial precipitation type. Rain will
change to snow from west to east through the overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday as cold air wraps into the system. May see a very brief
period of a mix as the transition occurs, but not expecting much in
the way of impacts with this. Highest QPF and therefore snow amounts
are expected across portions of NE/IA/MN; more details below. Strong
winds will also accompany this system with gusts 50 to 60 mph - this
will lead to blowing and drifting snow and potentially blizzard
conditions.

1. Fire Danger: More detail in the Fire Weather Section of this
discussion.

2. Severe Storms: SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of
5) for areas along and southeast of a line from Concord, NE to
Spencer, IA for the potential of strong to severe storms late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is due to the potential
for quarter sized hail (1" in diameter). Although instability is low
(less than 500 J/kg) and better to our southeast, steep mid level
lapse rates over 7.5 deg C/km, low freezing heights, and strong
shear could be enough for a couple isolated elevated hailers during
a narrow window overnight into early Wednesday.

3. Wind: As the low pressure deepens, surface pressure gradient
compresses. Winds aloft also increase, which we'll mix these
stronger winds down. Through the event, winds of 40-60 mph are
expected. Strongest winds look to be Tuesday night through Wednesday
as we see the CAA strengthen and the SPG compresses the most with
the low moving through central IA. Winds become northerly through
the event.

4: Winter Weather: As previously mentioned, we'll see a changeover
from west to east of rain to snow through the night Tuesday into
Wednesday morning as colder rain wraps into the system. Sounding
guidance shows that there may be a brief period of sleet and/or
freezing rain mix as we transition to snow, but confidence in
duration is low so limited mention with this forecast package.
Snowfall amounts will be lightest across portions of SD, increasing
as you head to the southeast. Concern is growing for possibly
significant snowfall amounts across northeastern NE into
northwestern IA and southwestern MN. As the low wraps up and moves
east during the day Wednesday, we'll see multiple forcing mechanisms
align with the higher QPF amounts. Increased vorticity advection,
tightening band of frontogenesis at the 850:700 mb level, WAA at the
same level, and increased lift via omega all indicate an efficient
snowband developing. Given the forcing, would expect a tight cut
off, especially on the northern end of the band. Probability of
greater than 6 inches of snow in this area (likely to see the
heaviest band) is over 50%, with a 20-40% chance of seeing 8 inches
or more. This band may still shift a bit, so continue to monitor the
forecast and prepare now for impacts.

5. Headline Updates/Changes: For the Winter Storm Watch, added
Cottonwood and Nobles counties in MN, Lyon county in IA, and Clay
county in SD to account for the subtle shift northwest.
Additionally, issued a High Wind Watch of most of the area covered
by the Winter Storm Watch where confidence is increasing in the
potential for wind gusts to 60 mph. Did not resolve the Winter Storm
Watch on this cycle to allow for more confidence in the potential
for blizzard conditions and where the band is going to set up.

THURSDAY ONWARD: With the focus on the next system, no changes made
to the extended forecast. Brief daily discussion below.

THURSDAY: Ridging returns to the region, with above average
temperatures returning. How warm we get will depend on new snowpack,
but highs in the 40s and 50s expected.

FRIDAY: Quick hitting short wave may lead to scattered light rain
across the area with continued above average temperatures.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: Deja vu continues with another
system ejecting out of the Rockies through the weekend with lee
cyclogenesis late Saturday night into Sunday. Details are uncertain,
but this is the next system to watch as the low moves through the
northern Plains and upper Midwest into early next week bringing
strong winds and chances for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Northeasterly winds will become gusty overnight, with gusts
increasing to 25 to 35 kts by Tuesday afternoon and evening.
There are some hints of LLWS at KSUX early Tuesday morning,
though confidence continues to be too low to include in the TAF.
Rain and snow begin to spread from west to east after 00Z
Tuesday evening. With that, ceilings will lower into the
MVFR/IFR range with decreasing visibilities as rain mixes with
and changes to snow toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

Very dry air has combined with efficient mixing to bring near
critical to critical fire danger across the region this afternoon.
Those locations in southwest Minnesota that received the most
snowfall this past weekend are still seeing some snowmelt so wetter
fuels and subtly lighter, less gusty winds have kept them out of
near critical fire danger. Further south and west, largely dried
fuels and filtered sunshine through high clouds has allowed
temperatures to reach the 70s. As a weak front slides through the
region late this afternoon, dominantly west winds will turn more
northwest. Frequent gusts in the 20s to 30s are weakening into the
20s, but areas in the Red Flag Warning should see humidity levels
continue around 15 percent (lowest near the U.S. Hwy 20 corridor) to
25 percent until sunset.

Winds strengthen heading into Tuesday and turn easterly with gusts
in the 20s and 30s bringing high to very high grassland fire danger.
Despite the strong winds Tuesday and even more so Wednesday, cooler,
more moist air will keep humidity well above critical levels (35% or
more Tuesday). Rain and snow overspread the region from west to east
late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning so wet fuels negate
any fire danger concerns through at least Wednesday.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for SDZ070-071.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for SDZ071.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for MNZ081-089-090.
IA...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ013-014.
     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...JM
FIRE WEATHER...SG/BP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
554 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

IAZ001-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-097-098-SDZ038>040-050-052>070-181100-
Lyon-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Pipestone-Rock-Beadle-
Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-
Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-
Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton-Clay-
554 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, southwest
Minnesota, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south
central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Continued warmth paired with breezy and dry conditions will lead to
near critical to critical fire danger through the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another spring system will move through the region from Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing strong winds, rain, and accumulating snowfall.
While accumulative amounts are still uncertain, the combination of
strong winds and falling snow will lead to minor to moderate travel
impacts mostly across northwestern IA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ090-NEZ013-014-SDZ071-181100-
Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-Buena Vista-
Woodbury-Ida-Jackson-Dixon-Dakota-Union-
554 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central
Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska and southeast South
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Continued warmth paired with breezy and dry conditions will lead to
near critical to critical fire danger through the early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another spring system will move through the region from Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing strong winds, rain, and accumulating snowfall.
While accumulative amounts are still uncertain, the combination of
strong winds and falling snow will lead to minor to moderate travel
impacts mostly across northwestern IA where blizzard-like conditions
will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.