Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
125 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain possible each
      afternoon. A few storms may produce isolated damaging wind gusts
      and localized flash flooding, especially across eastern
      Georgia.

    - Heat Index values as high as 98-104 degrees possible today and
      tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

Moving into the latter half of the week, we begin to shed our
persistence pattern of general mid-level troughing and shift toward
something more quasi-zonal in nature as the Bermuda High noses
westward. Deep layer flow continues to support a conveyor belt of
moisture into the Southeast, reinforced at the surface by moisture-
rich southwesterly flow along the western edge of the aforementioned
Bermuda High. PWATs remain close to the 2" mark per yesterday's 00Z
FFC sounding, exceeding the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Despite thunderstorms lingering well into the night on Wednesday,
expect the column to rebound quickly in the presence of such
abundant moisture, with convection becoming scattered to numerous in
coverage by the late afternoon/evening. Kinematics remain weak in
the wake of an exiting and lifting shortwave, however, instability
will be sufficient (on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, and
perhaps slightly higher in isolated pockets). Some semblance of an
outflow boundary (and perhaps several) likely lingers across the
southern and eastern portions of the area, and it may serve to
loosely organize some storms into clusters. As a result of our
anomalously moist environment, we will see the potential for precip-
loaded downdrafts to produce isolated damaging wind gusts in the
strongest storms. A Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk has been
analyzed across nearly all of north and central Georgia today, aside
from our far western tier, to highlight low-end chances for a few
strong to severe storms. In concert with the slightly bolstered
severe chances, lack of steering flow (generally 10kts or less) will
mean that storms that form may move little and perhaps even
backbuild at times. Widespread flash flooding concerns are not
anticipated (though nuisance flooding and ponding of low-lying or
impermeable areas are likely in any storm that forms today), but a
Marginal (level 1 out of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect
for the entire forecast area today to indicate the potential for
localized instances of flash flooding.

Little change in parameter space is forecast moving into Friday and
similar conditions are to be expected, with scattered to numerous
thunderstorms developing through the afternoon. Yet another Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been placed across the area as our
high PWAT airmass continues to support efficient rainfall producers.

Highs today and tomorrow will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s for all
except far northeast Georgia -- which should remain in the lower 70s
to 80 -- thanks to increased coverage of afternoon thunderstorms and
thus cloud cover. Despite this, with surging moisture and therefore
humidity, widespread maximum "feels like" temperatures will be
between 98 to 104 degrees, generally bubbling right under Heat
Advisory criteria (though very isolated pockets within the southern
and eastern halves of the area may briefly feel like 105). Lows will
drop into the 60s to lower 70s.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Key Messages:

-Isolated to widely scattered daily afternoon and evening
thunderstorm chances across North and Central Georgia through the
weekend. Increasing thunderstorm chances around mid-week.

-More widespread triple digit heat indices to return this weekend
 into early next week.

A subtropical ridge will begin setting up over the Southeast heading
into the weekend and staying put through the majority of the long
term period. With moisture sticking around -- PWS on the order of
1.75" to 2+" -- this set up will favor hot/humid conditions and
daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms through at least early
next week. As has been the trend, an isolated strong to severe
thunderstorm remains possible each day with gusty to localized
damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Though the
threat for widespread severe weather remains low. Given the weak
mid/upper-level pattern, thunderstorms may be slow-moving and/or
stationary which could lead to flooding becoming a concern as well.

In addition to the typical summertime thunderstorms, the heat will
be something else to closely monitor. Temperatures are forecast to
climb back up into the low 90s at most locales this weekend (aside
from the NE mountains) perhaps upper 90s across portions of East-
Central GA between Sunday and Tuesday. As a result, 'feels like'
temperatures are forecast to rise above 100 and approach heat
advisory criteria for some locales.

Beyond mid-week, like the previous forecast, noting a slight uptick
in rain/thunderstorm chances. Global ensembles continue to suggest
another potential surge of moisture back into the area mid to late
week resulting in the slightly higher coverage of storms.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Sct SHRA/TSRA are ongoing and will persist through the afternoon
before gradually tapering after 00-02Z. Outside of convection, VFR
conditions are largely expected. There is some potential for
patchy IFR cigs by 10-12Z Friday, though confidence in coverage is
not high. Sct SHRA/TSRA are again expected after 18Z Friday. Winds
will remain W at 5-10 kts and less than 5 kts overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on morning IFR potential.
High confidence on other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  70  91  72 /  60  20  40  10
Atlanta         89  72  90  72 /  70  20  50  20
Blairsville     83  65  85  65 /  70  20  60  20
Cartersville    89  70  90  70 /  60  20  50  20
Columbus        92  72  91  72 /  60  20  60  20
Gainesville     88  71  89  71 /  60  20  50  10
Macon           91  72  92  72 /  60  20  40  20
Rome            87  70  89  70 /  60  20  50  10
Peachtree City  90  70  90  69 /  70  20  50  20
Vidalia         92  73  93  74 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
553 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-111000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
553 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and evening, capable of producing gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. A few storms may become
strong to severe, with the primary hazards being isolated damaging
wind gusts and the potential for localized flash flooding.
Maximum heat index values will reach 98 to 104 degrees for all
except far northeastern Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected in north and
central Georgia on Friday. A couple of storms could be severe,
especially in eastern Georgia. A limited flooding threat may also
develop in east central Georgia either day.

Additional afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected this
weekend and early next week, though overall storm coverage should
decrease.

The heat will build some early next week, with afternoon feels
like temperatures reaching the 100 to 108 degree range Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1250 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

GAZ059-060-069>072-081-082-101715-
Putnam GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-
Jasper GA-
1250 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Bibb,
southwestern Putnam, Monroe, east central Upson, north central
Crawford, western Jones, southern Jasper and southeastern Lamar
Counties through 115 PM EDT...

At 1250 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Forsyth, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Forsyth, Yatesville, Culloden, Lake Tobesofkee, Bradley,
Wayside, Resseaus Crossroads, Round Oak, Russellville, Wesleyan,
Logtown, Arkwright, Juliette, Ethridge, Bolingbroke, Dames Ferry,
Berner, Brent, and Jarrell Plantation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 8427 3320 8384 3318 8382 3319 8381
      3321 8382 3326 8335 3280 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 264DEG 13KT 3302 8395

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1251 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

GAZ074>076-101715-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-
1251 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Glascock,
eastern Washington and Jefferson Counties through 115 PM EDT...

At 1251 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Davisboro, or 11 miles
west of Louisville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Sandersville, Louisville, Wrens, Wadley, Davisboro, Tennille,
Stapleton, Bartow, Avera, Riddleville, Edge Hill, Edgehill, Downs,
Warthen, Grange, Stapletons Crossroads, and Moxley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3285 8282 3311 8288 3325 8244 3304 8229
      3286 8236
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 266DEG 17KT 3302 8260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
209 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

GAZ072-081>083-094-095-101845-
Peach GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
209 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Bibb,
northwestern Twiggs, northeastern Peach, north central Houston, east
central Crawford and southeastern Jones Counties through 245 PM
EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Postell to near Byron, and moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Robins AFB, Postell, Robins
Air Force Base, Jack Brown Estates, Rutland, Mountain Springs,
Griswoldville, Huber, Cross Keys, Dry Branch, Powerville, Skipperton,
Elberta, Franklinton, and Middle Georgia Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8339 3267 8350 3257 8366 3260 8390
      3296 8357 3293 8343
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 269DEG 24KT 3289 8353 3265 8379

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH