Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
759 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Key Messages:

    - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain possible each
      afternoon. Some storms may produce isolated wet downbursts/
      damaging wind gusts and flash flooding, especially across
      east central Georgia.

    - Heat Index values as high as 100-104 degrees possible today
      and tomorrow afternoon.

Mid-level troughing remains over the eastern CONUS, with shortwave
disturbances traversing the base of the broader trough. Meanwhile, a
conveyor belt of deep atmospheric moisture continues to stream
over the region to the west of the Bermuda High and underneath
southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough, with precipitable
water values between 1.7 and 2.1 inches. Aside from 80s in the
higher elevations of far northeast Georgia, highs this afternoon
are forecast to rise into the low to mid 90s across the forecast
area. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across will contribute to
heat index values between 99-104 degrees during the peak heating
hours this afternoon. A couple of spots in east-central Georgia
could briefly reach 105 degrees, but this appears to be
increasingly unlikely with showers and thunderstorms already
beginning to develop in this area.

A stronger, negatively-tilted shortwave is swinging through the Ohio
Valley region towards the Mid-Atlantic around the base of the larger
trough. With large-scale lift ahead of this shortwave, combined with
SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg, scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are expected across the area this afternoon. In addition to
contributing to greater storm coverage, the high PWATs will also
favor precip loading in downdrafts, bringing stronger winds aloft
down to the surface. Because of this, the SPC has diagnosed a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across east Georgia
for this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat with any severe thunderstorms that occur. Stronger
storms that form will also be capable of producing heavy rain and
frequent lightning. Speaking of heavy rain, steering flow will be
weak at 10 kts or less, so storms will move very little during their
life cycle and could even backbuild along surface cold pools. Add
this up, and the potential is there for nuisance flooding and
ponding of water in low-lying areas or impermeable surfaces.
Localized flash flooding is also possible where stronger storms
linger over a common location for a prolonged time.

High temperatures on Thursday will be a little "cooler" than today
courtesy of increasing storm and associated cloud coverage, rising
mainly into the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat indices between 99-104
will largely be confined to portions of central and east Georgia
during the afternoon. Thunderstorms on Thursday will find themselves
in an environment very similar to today, with high PWATs and strong
destabilization once again. Another Marginal Risk for severe weather
is in place across east Georgia, along with a sliver of a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) across the far southeastern portion of the
forecast area. Damaging winds will once again be the main severe
weather threat given precip loading in downdrafts once again. The
moisture-rich airmass will also warrant continued monitoring of
heavy rain and flooding potential, especially with soils becoming
more saturated the longer this wet pattern lasts.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Key Messages:

    - Higher shower and thunderstorm coverage on Friday will taper
      to more typical isolated to scattered coverage over the
      weekend.

    - Temperatures rebound over the weekend into early next week,
      bringing a return to more widespread triple digit heat index
      values.

Broad mid-level troughing across the eastern CONUS at the start of
the period on Friday will begin to give way to the building
subtropical ridge over Southeast through the weekend. As such,
shower and thunderstorm coverage will be highest on Friday with a
bit of a downtrend in coverage each day from the weekend into early
next week. Even so, given the nature of the deep Gulf moisture
trapped beneath the ridge, isolated to widely scattered diurnal
showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon and
evening. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a concern each day given
the aforementioned deep moisture characterized by PWATs of 1.75 to
2+" through most of the period. Additionally, an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm threat could also be expected with water-loaded
downbursts the primary risk.

The other effect of the building subtropical ridge and relatively
less shower and thunderstorm coverage will be increasing
temperatures. Relatively "cooler" highs in the upper 80s to low 90s
on Friday will rebound back toward the mid 90s for most (and even
upper 90s for a few areas) by the weekend. With the combined impact
of the humid airmass in place, apparent temperatures will return
back above 100 for most areas and approach Heat Advisory criteria
for some locations by early next week.

Finally, while discrepancies certainly remain at this juncture, PoPs
appear more likely to trend back upward by the tail end of the long
term from Tuesday-Wednesday. Current guidance suggests deeper
moisture could surge back into the area if a coastal wave encroaches
on the eastern side of the westward-migrating ridge.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Scattered thunderstorms will continue in north Georgia through 04Z
Thursday, then more isolated storm activity is possible through
08Z Thursday. Impacts from the storms are expected at the Atlanta
area TAF sites. Thunderstorms will return to north and central
Georgia between 17Z Thursday and 03Z Friday. West or southwest
winds (210-290 degrees at 2 to 9 kt) are expected through
Thursday. Isolated low ceilings (600- 1500 ft AGL) or patchy fog
are possible between 09Z and 14Z Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence in storms before 04Z Thursday.
Moderate confidence in storms at some point between 17Z Thursday
and 01Z Friday.
High confidence in the wind forecast.
Low confidence in low ceilings between 09Z and 14Z Thursday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  89  71  91 /  50  70  30  40
Atlanta         73  89  72  91 /  40  70  30  50
Blairsville     65  83  65  85 /  60  80  30  60
Cartersville    71  88  70  90 /  40  70  30  50
Columbus        74  92  72  91 /  30  60  30  60
Gainesville     72  88  71  90 /  50  60  30  40
Macon           72  91  72  92 /  30  60  30  60
Rome            71  87  70  89 /  40  70  20  50
Peachtree City  71  89  70  91 /  40  60  30  50
Vidalia         74  92  74  93 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Albright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
503 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-102115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
503 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue in north and central Georgia
through 10 PM. Isolated pockets of dense fog may develop in east
central Georgia after 4 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected in north and
central Georgia Thursday and Friday. A couple of storms could be
severe, especially in eastern Georgia. A limited flooding threat
may also develop in east central Georgia either day.

Additional afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected this
weekend and early next week, though overall storm coverage should
decrease.

The heat will build some early next week, with afternoon feels
like temperatures reaching the 100 to 108 degree range Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

GAZ086-097-098-111>113-092015-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-Laurens GA-
342 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Laurens,
Toombs, southern Emanuel, Treutlen, central Wheeler and Montgomery
Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 341 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Stillmore to near Zaidee to Glenwood, and moving north
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
         hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
         lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
         especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Swainsboro, Lyons, Soperton, Mount Vernon, Vidalia, Twin City,
Glenwood, Adrian, Uvalda, Stillmore, Oak Park, Ailey, Higgston, Santa
Claus, Alston, Nunez, Tarrytown, Ohoopee, New Branch, and Lothair.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3242 8219
      3235 8225 3218 8219 3206 8221 3207 8230
      3202 8271 3244 8282 3253 8260 3253 8257
      3254 8257 3263 8243 3260 8201
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 179DEG 24KT 3244 8220 3238 8244 3221 8267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
412 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

GAZ080-092045-
Taylor GA-
412 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Taylor County through 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Wesley Church, or near
Butler, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Carsonville, Wesley Church, and Fickling Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3256 8436 3268 8436 3268 8434 3271 8434
      3273 8426 3272 8426 3273 8424 3272 8424
      3272 8422 3269 8420 3261 8413 3253 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 272DEG 13KT 3262 8428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Culver

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