Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
749 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered thunderstorms, isolated strong to severe, are possible
today. The main threat will be damaging winds and some hail, though a
brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out.

- Rainfall will continue in the region today and Tuesday, though the
widespread flooding threat continues to decline. Training
thunderstorms in our SE counties this afternoon may pose a FF threat.

Discussion:

Current satellite imagery shows the cut-off low's
center over the LAMS region as pressure drops along the Gulf
Coast. The low will continue to slowly move to the east northeast
over the coming day and slowly bring our wet and active period to
an end. Conditions continue to destabilize over the western CWA.
Cloud coverage has underperformed model guidance and has led to
CAPE values increasing by nearly 1000 J/Kg in the last 3 hours
(over- performing). Given the destabilization and increased dry
air, continue to expect thunderstorms to develop this afternoon or
in the next few hours with a few being strong to severe. The main
hazards will be localized gusty to damaging winds (DCAPE already
near 900) and some hail (Mid level lapse rates >6.5 already and a
corridor of Large Hail Parameter >6). Flooding threat across the
area continues to diminish for all but the southeast CWA. N storm
motion and S prorogation this afternoon could mean a training rain
threat over the southeast CWA, where significant rainfall fell
yesterday. Precipitation tomorrow will mostly be in the form of
showers. The heaviest and most widespread rain showers will be
along and north of I20.

Temperatures rebound quickly through Wednesday with highs increasing
to the mid and even upper 80s. Mid level flow turns out of the NW
with slightly drier profiles. Storms could develop with organized
cold pools, with a continued threat of this through the long term as
well.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Key Messages:

    -Temps warm up into the 90s through Monday.
    -Dry weather for Thursday.
    -Rain chances return for start of the weekend with daily
     potential for strong to severe storms through Monday.

Discussion:

For Wednesday night, lingering rain chances will encompass much of
eastern Georgia as the low pressure system currently over the area
pushes into the northeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Models are currently showing ~1000-1500 J/kg for MUCAPE and lapse
rates ~7-8 C/km. Should the storms be able to form with the main
forcing pushing well northeastward, then we are likely to see a
general thunder type risk like outlines by SPC over north Georgia
with main threats likely to be small hail and gusty winds like the
past couple of days.

Pushing into Thursday, the low pressure system will be well to the
northeast, with momentary ridging over Georgia which will result in
our one day of dry weather expected over the area. With the mid-
level ridging and sfc high pressure funneling warm moist air into
the area, temps will quickly rise into the 90s over much of the
area. To begin the weekend, we'll see a frontal boundary begin to
dip into north Georgia and southern TN and that will be our main
emphasis for any strong to severe weather into the early parts of
next week. With the front hanging out over north Georgia, should see
most storms stick to that northern Georgia area although with it
being towards the end of the longterm, the front could meander
further south during this time frame. Daily afternoon CAPE values of
1500-2000 J/kg are currently forecasted with elevated shear values.
With the elevated shear values we will be looking out for the chance
for these storms to become more linear in nature and have more of a
damaging wind threat vs just a popcorn summer type setup. As
mentioned in previous AFDs we'll be continuing to monitor the threat
for MCS or linear QLCS type systems through Monday afternoon.

In addition to the elevated rain chances, with the high pressure to
our south, warm air will be funneled into the area resulting in
highs in the 90s which are ~8-10 degrees above normal for the area.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 740 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR to continue for a majority of the TAF pd, with the potential
for SCT-BKN low-MVFR to IFR cigs around daybreak (approximately
10-14Z) for northern TAF sites. VCSH psbl beginning 16-17Z
tomorrow, with best window for -TSRA impacts between 18-24Z. Winds
are likely to continue to bobble around due S for the next few
hours; expect a gradual shift to the SSW by 08-09Z, picking up in
earnest by 15Z at 5-8kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence morning ceiling progression.
High confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  76  60  80 /  70  60  30  40
Atlanta         61  75  61  83 /  40  60  30  30
Blairsville     56  70  55  75 /  70  80  40  60
Cartersville    59  74  59  83 /  50  70  40  30
Columbus        60  79  62  87 /  20  40  10  10
Gainesville     61  73  60  79 /  70  70  30  40
Macon           60  79  61  85 /  30  40  20  20
Rome            59  76  59  83 /  60  70  40  30
Peachtree City  59  76  60  83 /  30  50  30  20
Vidalia         64  82  64  86 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...96

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1046 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1046 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A couple of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
in the region today. The primary hazards with any stronger storms
should be damaging winds gusts, but a brief tornado or a burst of
hail can't be ruled out.

An isolated heavy rain and flooding threat will continue through
today in north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
633 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ074>076-085-122300-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-Johnson GA-
633 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Glascock, eastern Washington, north central Johnson and southwestern
Jefferson Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Pringle, or 8 miles
northeast of Wrightsville, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Davisboro, Harrison, Riddleville, Edge Hill, Edgehill, Downs,
Donovan, New Home, Grange, Stapletons Crossroads, and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 8257 3278 8278 3313 8275 3319 8257
      3307 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 192DEG 21KT 3284 8266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ062-074>076-122330-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-
702 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Warren,
Glascock, northeastern Washington and northwestern Jefferson Counties
through 730 PM EDT...

At 702 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Downs, or 9 miles
northeast of Sandersville, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sandersville, Warrenton, Gibson, Davisboro, Avera, Mitchell, Camak,
Edge Hill, Edgehill, Hamburg State Park, Shoals, Downs, Jewell, Beall
Springs, Mayfield, Grange, Agricola, Reese, Mesena, and Bastonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3297 8258 3300 8280 3322 8280 3324 8278
      3325 8275 3327 8278 3331 8278 3331 8279
      3332 8279 3333 8280 3339 8280 3348 8260
      3341 8255 3335 8255 3336 8253 3334 8249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 185DEG 26KT 3307 8269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
718 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ039-051-062-130000-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Warren GA-
718 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Warren, southeastern
Taliaferro and Wilkes Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 718 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Broad River Campground to near Mayfield, and
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
         hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
         lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
         especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Warrenton, Tignall, Norwood, Sharon, Camak, Ficklin,
Cadley, Mallorysville, Lundberg, Delhi, Norman, Mayfield, Metasville,
Holliday Park, Floral Hill, Aonia, Barnett, Danburg, and Rocky Creek
Fire Dept..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8249 3366 8251 3364 8256 3365 8258
      3363 8258 3363 8262 3362 8262 3361 8265
      3338 8255 3333 8280 3336 8280 3343 8283
      3395 8280 3397 8277 3399 8266 3386 8261
      3387 8257 3383 8260 3380 8258 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 248DEG 16KT 3396 8269 3337 8273

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
720 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     Hail             3 SSE Apple Valley      34.12N 83.49W
05/12/2025  M1.00 Inch       Jackson            GA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Quarter Size hail in the city of Jefferson
            near Brockton Rd and Red Tail Rd.

&&

VSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
734 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ062-074>076-085-086-130030-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-Emanuel GA-
Johnson GA-
734 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Emanuel,
southern Warren, Glascock, eastern Washington, Johnson and Jefferson
Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 734 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Beall Springs to near Spann, and moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
         hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
         lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
         especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Swainsboro, Louisville, Wrightsville, Gibson, Wrens, Wadley,
Davisboro, Harrison, Stapleton, Bartow, Avera, Mitchell, Summertown,
Riddleville, Edge Hill, Edgehill, Kite, Shoals, Spann, and Downs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 8213 3256 8267 3261 8267 3264 8275
      3323 8278 3325 8275 3327 8279 3335 8279
      3340 8255 3335 8255 3334 8245 3331 8240
      3331 8234 3327 8226 3323 8223 3311 8228
      3293 8227 3284 8232 3280 8221 3281 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 253DEG 21KT 3337 8273 3264 8269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
749 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ086-098-112-113-130015-
Toombs GA-Emanuel GA-Treutlen GA-Montgomery GA-
749 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Toombs, central
Emanuel, eastern Treutlen and eastern Montgomery Counties through 815
PM EDT...

At 748 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Swainsboro to near McNatt Falls, and moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Swainsboro, Lyons, Vidalia, Twin City, Uvalda, Stillmore, Oak Park,
Higgston, Garfield, Santa Claus, Alston, Nunez, Ohoopee, New Branch,
Covena, McNatt Falls, South Thompson, English Eddy, Cedar Crossing,
and Johnson Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3235 8225
      3217 8218 3191 8223 3194 8228 3194 8238
      3196 8238 3195 8239 3197 8244 3196 8250
      3195 8248 3195 8249 3196 8251 3196 8254
      3198 8256 3261 8248 3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 276DEG 23KT 3261 8238 3193 8248

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH