Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
239 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Key Messages:

- Scattered thunderstorms, isolated strong to severe, are possible
today. The main threat will be damaging winds and some hail, though a
brief tornado cannot be fully ruled out.

- Rainfall will continue in the region today and Tuesday, though the
widespread flooding threat continues to decline. Training
thunderstorms in our SE counties this afternoon may pose a FF threat.

Discussion:

Current satellite imagery shows the cut-off low's
center over the LAMS region as pressure drops along the Gulf
Coast. The low will continue to slowly move to the east northeast
over the coming day and slowly bring our wet and active period to
an end. Conditions continue to destabilize over the western CWA.
Cloud coverage has underperformed model guidance and has led to
CAPE values increasing by nearly 1000 J/Kg in the last 3 hours
(over- performing). Given the destabilization and increased dry
air, continue to expect thunderstorms to develop this afternoon or
in the next few hours with a few being strong to severe. The main
hazards will be localized gusty to damaging winds (DCAPE already
near 900) and some hail (Mid level lapse rates >6.5 already and a
corridor of Large Hail Parameter >6). Flooding threat across the
area continues to diminish for all but the southeast CWA. N storm
motion and S prorogation this afternoon could mean a training rain
threat over the southeast CWA, where significant rainfall fell
yesterday. Precipitation tomorrow will mostly be in the form of
showers. The heaviest and most widespread rain showers will be
along and north of I20.

Temperatures rebound quickly through Wednesday with highs increasing
to the mid and even upper 80s. Mid level flow turns out of the NW
with slightly drier profiles. Storms could develop with organized
cold pools, with a continued threat of this through the long term as
well.

SM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Key Messages:

    -Temps warm up into the 90s through Monday.
    -Dry weather for Thursday.
    -Rain chances return for start of the weekend with daily
     potential for strong to severe storms through Monday.

Discussion:

For Wednesday night, lingering rain chances will encompass much of
eastern Georgia as the low pressure system currently over the area
pushes into the northeast overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Models are currently showing ~1000-1500 J/kg for MUCAPE and lapse
rates ~7-8 C/km. Should the storms be able to form with the main
forcing pushing well northeastward, then we are likely to see a
general thunder type risk like outlines by SPC over north Georgia
with main threats likely to be small hail and gusty winds like the
past couple of days.

Pushing into Thursday, the low pressure system will be well to the
northeast, with momentary ridging over Georgia which will result in
our one day of dry weather expected over the area. With the mid-
level ridging and sfc high pressure funneling warm moist air into
the area, temps will quickly rise into the 90s over much of the
area. To begin the weekend, we'll see a frontal boundary begin to
dip into north Georgia and southern TN and that will be our main
emphasis for any strong to severe weather into the early parts of
next week. With the front hanging out over north Georgia, should see
most storms stick to that northern Georgia area although with it
being towards the end of the longterm, the front could meander
further south during this time frame. Daily afternoon CAPE values of
1500-2000 J/kg are currently forecasted with elevated shear values.
With the elevated shear values we will be looking out for the chance
for these storms to become more linear in nature and have more of a
damaging wind threat vs just a popcorn summer type setup. As
mentioned in previous AFDs we'll be continuing to monitor the threat
for MCS or linear QLCS type systems through Monday afternoon.

In addition to the elevated rain chances, with the high pressure to
our south, warm air will be funneled into the area resulting in
highs in the 90s which are ~8-10 degrees above normal for the area.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions to last for a few hours. Scattered to isolated SHRA
and TSRA move into the area through about the 19z hours through
evening. Cigs drop overnight behind precipitation clearing Tues
morning. SHRA and TSRA return tomorrow afternoon. Winds currently
S SE to become light to SW overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium Low confidence cigs overnight.
Medium confidence precipitation coverage each day.
High all other elements.

SM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  76  60  80 /  70  70  30  40
Atlanta         61  75  61  83 /  50  70  40  30
Blairsville     56  70  55  75 /  80  90  50  70
Cartersville    59  74  59  83 /  50  80  40  30
Columbus        60  79  62  87 /  20  40  10  10
Gainesville     61  73  60  79 /  70  80  40  50
Macon           60  79  61  85 /  30  50  20  20
Rome            59  76  59  83 /  50  80  40  30
Peachtree City  59  76  60  83 /  30  70  30  20
Vidalia         64  82  64  86 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SM
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...SM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1046 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-131500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1046 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A couple of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
in the region today. The primary hazards with any stronger storms
should be damaging winds gusts, but a brief tornado or a burst of
hail can't be ruled out.

An isolated heavy rain and flooding threat will continue through
today in north and central Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and Wednesday,
mainly during the afternoon and evening. Additional thunderstorm
activity is possible next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1035 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ047>049-059-121500-
Morgan GA-Walton GA-Jasper GA-Newton GA-
1035 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Morgan,
southeastern Walton, northeastern Jasper and east central Newton
Counties through 1100 AM EDT...

At 1035 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Shady Dale, or near
Monticello, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Monticello, Social Circle, Rutledge, Newborn, Mansfield,
Shady Dale, Calvin, Farrar, Hard Labor Creek State Park, and Brick
Store.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 8352 3343 8353 3331 8354 3331 8374
      3362 8378 3369 8362 3362 8350
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 181DEG 30KT 3339 8364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1037 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ014-015-022-023-034-121500-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-Gwinnett GA-Lumpkin GA-
1037 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Forsyth, south
central Lumpkin, north central Gwinnett, southeastern Dawson and
western Hall Counties through 1100 AM EDT...

At 1037 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Lake Lanier Islands,
or near Cumming, moving north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cumming, Dawsonville, Sugar Hill, Buford, Rest Haven, Dougherty,
Buford Dam-Lake Lanier Parks, Coal Mountain, Aqualand Park, Matt,
Silver City, Chestatee, Oscarville, Lake Lanier Islands, and War Hill
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8396 3411 8417 3442 8422 3447 8407
      3442 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 1437Z 180DEG 30KT 3419 8407

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1259 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ042-052-121730-
Carroll GA-Heard GA-
1259 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Carroll
and northwestern Heard Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Ephesus, or 11 miles
northeast of Wedowee, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Bowdon, Ephesus, Tyus, and Blackjack Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3359 8523 3355 8510 3331 8527 3358 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 199DEG 23KT 3338 8531

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
303 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ001-002-121930-
Walker GA-Dade GA-
303 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Walker
and southwestern Dade Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 302 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Sulpher Springs, or 13
miles northwest of Summerville, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Rising Fawn, Cloudland Canyon State Park, and Cooper
Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8529 3459 8538 3459 8553 3487 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 188DEG 15KT 3463 8550

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ042-052-122000-
Carroll GA-Heard GA-
330 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Carroll
and northwestern Heard Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Ephesus, or 11 miles
east of Wedowee, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Ephesus, Roopville, Frolona, John
Tanner State Park, Tyus, Blackjack Mountain, Roosterville, and
Waresville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8529 3368 8521 3359 8507 3326 8520
      3322 8525 3365 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 191DEG 21KT 3336 8529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
400 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

GAZ041-042-122030-
Haralson GA-Carroll GA-
400 PM EDT Mon May 12 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Haralson and western
Carroll Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near John Tanner State Park,
or near Carrollton, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Buchanan, Bremen, Temple, Tallapoosa, Bowdon, Mount Zion,
Waco, Eubank Lake, Bowdon Junction, Abilene, Draketown, Felton, and
John Tanner State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 8530 3390 8522 3391 8521 3391 8505
      3390 8503 3381 8504 3380 8500 3347 8510
      3350 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 188DEG 28KT 3356 8520

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH