Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
654 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

At a glance:

- A cold front this afternoon will bring a line of thunderstorms;
some of which could be severe.

- Rain on Saturday will keep temps cool.

Our cold front is set to move through the area late tonight and into
tomorrow morning with lingering rain on Saturday afternoon. Latest
guidance indicates that the environment out ahead of the line will
build some impressive SBCAPE values in the range of 2000+ J/kg. The
sheer axis seems to come through NW Georgia with bulk sheer values
of around 40kts. Once it pushes further into Georgia however most of
the models have it losing steam by the time it reaches the metro
area. The primary concern will be wind again, but given that we're
still technically in spring there is at least a small chance to see
some hail in the strongest of thunderstorms. We'll need to keep an
eye on our lapse rates and the fronts timing. The later the push,
the more likely we are to develop more instability.

The front will push through on Saturday bringing up to two inches of
rain to some areas. Highs on Saturday will be limited to the 60s
and 70s by the rain so if you have outdoor plans on Saturday,
just keep an eye on on the forecast and consider a backup plan.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

At the start of the long term, an upper low will be slowly moving
across the Mid MS and Ohio Valley Regions. At the surface,
showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday Night as
a result of a cold front moving through. Progression of this
system has trended slightly slower per latest guidance so
depending on how far the front progresses, there may be lingering
shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon across portions
of east-central GA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out during peak heating. The upper low becomes more
centered over the Ohio Valley and the surface front largely
southeast of the forecast area by Monday. Again, depending on how
far the front progressions far east-central GA may still see
isolated thunder chances Monday afternoon.

Drier and cooler conditions will kick off the work week. As
mentioned in previous forecasts, an omega block type pattern looks
to set up -- ridge across the Central US and a low on either side --
which will promote drier and cooler conditions. Confidence remains
low as to where exactly the eastern low and central ridge set up but
as a general rule of thumb with northerly flow and a surface high
set up mostly dry and cool conditions will prevail early next week.
Beyond midweek models begin to diverge, though unsettled weather
looks to return late next week. For now, capped rain chances at 30-
35% late Wednesday into Thursday.

Forecast daytime temperatures will start off in the 70s to low 80s
and gradually warm back up into the upper 70s to mid 80s by the end
of the period. Forecast lows dip into the 40s to low 50s Monday
morning becoming more mild with lows in the 50s and 60s by
midweek.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Some patchy fog and low cigs have stayed to the west of ATL and at
this point it's unlikely to impact the airfield with the rising sun.
Expect a CU field by 14Z giving low VFR CIGS. Winds will remain SW
at 5-10kts. A TEMPO for TSRA has been added for storms between 20-
24Z but that time period may need to be adjusted if the front is
slow to move through.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Low to Medium on WX timing.
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  61  82  59 /  30  20  60  80
Atlanta         84  63  79  59 /  40  20  80  80
Blairsville     79  57  74  53 /  60  60  90  80
Cartersville    85  60  77  54 /  50  40  90  80
Columbus        87  62  81  60 /  20   0  70  80
Gainesville     82  61  79  58 /  50  30  80  80
Macon           88  63  85  61 /  10  10  50  70
Rome            84  60  75  54 /  60  50  90  70
Peachtree City  85  61  79  57 /  40  20  70  80
Vidalia         89  65  88  65 /  10   0  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
901 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-030115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
901 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in north Georgia tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the region Friday
afternoon and Friday night, with the greatest coverage over north
Georgia. Damaging wind gusts or hail up to quarter size may occur.

Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in north and central
Georgia over the weekend, with the greatest potential for severe
weather expected on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1144 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ006-021615-
Fannin GA-
1144 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Fannin
County through 1215 PM EDT...

At 1144 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Higdon, or near Blue
Ridge, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Ridge, Morganton, Mineral Bluff, Jones Mill, Higdon, Colwell,
Loving, and Epworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8418 3497 8416 3495 8418 3493 8416
      3491 8413 3482 8433 3483 8436 3484 8437
      3484 8440 3486 8442 3486 8451 3492 8456
      3499 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 234DEG 10KT 3490 8443

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1205 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ031-041-021630-
Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
1205 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Paulding and
northeastern Haralson Counties through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1204 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Yorkville, or 9 miles
west of Dallas, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Hiram, Braswell, Yorkville, Cross Roads, Burnt Hickory Ridge,
Draketown, Eubank Lake, New Hope, and New Georgia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8505 3395 8505 3395 8498 3402 8495
      3408 8482 3408 8474 3395 8474 3395 8472
      3384 8473 3379 8494 3381 8503 3381 8505
      3380 8505 3391 8510
TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 247DEG 23KT 3389 8501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1211 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ021-022-033-021645-
North Fulton GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-
1211 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Cherokee, western Forsyth and northeastern Fulton Counties through
1245 PM EDT...

At 1211 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Mountain Park, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cumming, Mountain Park, Roswell, Alpharetta, Milton, Woodstock, Free
Home, Hickory Flat, Drew, Union Hill, Brookwood, Birmingham,
Holbrook, and Ducktown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8410 3403 8440 3405 8442 3407 8442
      3407 8449 3412 8452 3430 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 238DEG 12KT 3411 8440

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1213 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ016-021645-
White GA-
1213 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of White County through
1245 PM EDT...

At 1213 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Qualatchee Lake, or
near Cleveland, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Helen, Unicoi State Park, Camp Coleman Lake, Whitley Gap
Shelter, Robertstown, Anna Ruby Falls, Smithgall Woods Conservation
Are, Sautee, and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8363 3469 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364
      3461 8365 3454 8383 3459 8387 3461 8386
      3462 8388 3468 8387 3472 8386 3473 8383
      3474 8382 3477 8383 3479 8380 3480 8375
      3479 8370 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 238DEG 12KT 3466 8382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH