Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
654 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

At a glance:

- A cold front this afternoon will bring a line of thunderstorms;
some of which could be severe.

- Rain on Saturday will keep temps cool.

Our cold front is set to move through the area late tonight and into
tomorrow morning with lingering rain on Saturday afternoon. Latest
guidance indicates that the environment out ahead of the line will
build some impressive SBCAPE values in the range of 2000+ J/kg. The
sheer axis seems to come through NW Georgia with bulk sheer values
of around 40kts. Once it pushes further into Georgia however most of
the models have it losing steam by the time it reaches the metro
area. The primary concern will be wind again, but given that we're
still technically in spring there is at least a small chance to see
some hail in the strongest of thunderstorms. We'll need to keep an
eye on our lapse rates and the fronts timing. The later the push,
the more likely we are to develop more instability.

The front will push through on Saturday bringing up to two inches of
rain to some areas. Highs on Saturday will be limited to the 60s
and 70s by the rain so if you have outdoor plans on Saturday,
just keep an eye on on the forecast and consider a backup plan.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

At the start of the long term, an upper low will be slowly moving
across the Mid MS and Ohio Valley Regions. At the surface,
showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday Night as
a result of a cold front moving through. Progression of this
system has trended slightly slower per latest guidance so
depending on how far the front progresses, there may be lingering
shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon across portions
of east-central GA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out during peak heating. The upper low becomes more
centered over the Ohio Valley and the surface front largely
southeast of the forecast area by Monday. Again, depending on how
far the front progressions far east-central GA may still see
isolated thunder chances Monday afternoon.

Drier and cooler conditions will kick off the work week. As
mentioned in previous forecasts, an omega block type pattern looks
to set up -- ridge across the Central US and a low on either side --
which will promote drier and cooler conditions. Confidence remains
low as to where exactly the eastern low and central ridge set up but
as a general rule of thumb with northerly flow and a surface high
set up mostly dry and cool conditions will prevail early next week.
Beyond midweek models begin to diverge, though unsettled weather
looks to return late next week. For now, capped rain chances at 30-
35% late Wednesday into Thursday.

Forecast daytime temperatures will start off in the 70s to low 80s
and gradually warm back up into the upper 70s to mid 80s by the end
of the period. Forecast lows dip into the 40s to low 50s Monday
morning becoming more mild with lows in the 50s and 60s by
midweek.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Fri May 2 2025

Some patchy fog and low cigs have stayed to the west of ATL and at
this point it's unlikely to impact the airfield with the rising sun.
Expect a CU field by 14Z giving low VFR CIGS. Winds will remain SW
at 5-10kts. A TEMPO for TSRA has been added for storms between 20-
24Z but that time period may need to be adjusted if the front is
slow to move through.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Low to Medium on WX timing.
High on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          84  61  82  59 /  30  20  60  80
Atlanta         84  63  79  59 /  40  20  80  80
Blairsville     79  57  74  53 /  60  60  90  80
Cartersville    85  60  77  54 /  50  40  90  80
Columbus        87  62  81  60 /  20   0  70  80
Gainesville     82  61  79  58 /  50  30  80  80
Macon           88  63  85  61 /  10  10  50  70
Rome            84  60  75  54 /  60  50  90  70
Peachtree City  85  61  79  57 /  40  20  70  80
Vidalia         89  65  88  65 /  10   0  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
901 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-030115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
901 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in north Georgia tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the region Friday
afternoon and Friday night, with the greatest coverage over north
Georgia. Damaging wind gusts or hail up to quarter size may occur.

Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in north and central
Georgia over the weekend, with the greatest potential for severe
weather expected on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1211 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ021-022-033-021645-
North Fulton GA-Cherokee GA-Forsyth GA-
1211 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Cherokee, western Forsyth and northeastern Fulton Counties through
1245 PM EDT...

At 1211 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Mountain Park, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cumming, Mountain Park, Roswell, Alpharetta, Milton, Woodstock, Free
Home, Hickory Flat, Drew, Union Hill, Brookwood, Birmingham,
Holbrook, and Ducktown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3411 8410 3403 8440 3405 8442 3407 8442
      3407 8449 3412 8452 3430 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 238DEG 12KT 3411 8440

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1213 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ016-021645-
White GA-
1213 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of White County through
1245 PM EDT...

At 1213 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Qualatchee Lake, or
near Cleveland, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Helen, Unicoi State Park, Camp Coleman Lake, Whitley Gap
Shelter, Robertstown, Anna Ruby Falls, Smithgall Woods Conservation
Are, Sautee, and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8363 3469 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364
      3461 8365 3454 8383 3459 8387 3461 8386
      3462 8388 3468 8387 3472 8386 3473 8383
      3474 8382 3477 8383 3479 8380 3480 8375
      3479 8370 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 238DEG 12KT 3466 8382

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1222 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ006-008-021645-
Union GA-Fannin GA-
1222 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Union
and northeastern Fannin Counties through 1245 PM EDT...

At 1221 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Morganton, or near
Blue Ridge, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Ridge, Morganton, Hemp, Mineral Bluff, Nottely Dam, Ivy Log,
Hurst, Jones Creek, and Loving.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 8400 3478 8430 3480 8431 3481 8433
      3482 8433 3483 8435 3497 8435 3499 8422
      3499 8401
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 269DEG 13KT 3489 8426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1231 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ020-031-021700-
Bartow GA-Paulding GA-
1231 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Paulding and southeastern Bartow Counties through 100 PM EDT...

At 1231 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Burnt Hickory Ridge,
or 9 miles north of Dallas, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cartersville, Euharlee, Emerson, Braswell, Taylorsville, George
Washington Carver St Pk, Cross Roads, Burnt Hickory Ridge,
Stilesboro, and Red Top Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3431 8479 3419 8466 3408 8466 3408 8473
      3400 8474 3392 8487 3400 8496 3408 8492
      3408 8499
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 225DEG 17KT 3404 8489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1245 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ019-020-021715-
Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
1245 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Floyd
and western Bartow Counties through 115 PM EDT...

At 1245 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Lindale, or 8 miles
southeast of Rome, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rome, Cartersville, Euharlee, Kingston, Taylorsville, Cassville,
Seney, and Lindale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 8497 3438 8497 3417 8479 3408 8500
      3408 8505 3410 8505 3410 8512 3408 8512
      3408 8513 3419 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 236DEG 14KT 3416 8510

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1252 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

GAZ013>015-022-023-021715-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-Pickens GA-Lumpkin GA-
1252 PM EDT Fri May 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Forsyth, south central Lumpkin, Dawson, northwestern Hall and east
central Pickens Counties through 115 PM EDT...

At 1252 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Dawsonville, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Dougherty, Silver City, Hollis Lathem
Reservoir, Auraria, Hightower, War Hill Park, and McKee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 8389 3430 8424 3435 8426 3438 8426
      3438 8427 3445 8430 3451 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 262DEG 20KT 3439 8413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH