Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
128 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Key Messages:

 - Widespread severe weather threat this evening through Sunday
   morning across the area with damaging winds, large hail, and
   tornadoes possible.

 - Heavy rainfall likely across portions of N GA through Sunday
   morning, and a Flood Watch remains in effect through early Sunday
   morning. Localized flooding is possible elsewhere.

 - Very gusty winds are expected prior to frontal passage. A Wind
   Advisory remains in effect through late tonight for much of the
   area.

A sharp upper trough will dig across the Eastern Plains and MS Valley
tonight, then begin to lift NE by Sun afternoon. At the surface, a
double-barreled frontal system will sweep across the area late
tonight and on Sunday.

Instability has already begun to increase across the area (much of it
initially elevated) with sunshine breaking through a thickening CU
field. Instability will become deeper and more surface-based this
evening and overnight. A significant pre- frontal band of severe
thunderstorms is expected to sweep across the area tonight into
Sunday morning. MUCAPE values will increase to 500-1200 J/kg as
convection moves across the area, with effective shear of 50 to as
high as 80 kts. Helicity values will increase to 400-600 m2/s2
during this time frame.

SPC has forecast a moderate risk of severe storms covers across our
W zones, with an enhanced risk across most of the remainder of the
area. A slight risk is relegated to our extreme SE zones (mostly late
tonight into early Sunday morning). Strong tornadoes (EF2 or higher,
some long track) are possible in the moderate and enhanced risk
areas. Damaging winds and large hail are also possible in severe
storms.

Residents should ensure they have multiple methods of receiving
warnings. Storms will be moving across large portions of the area
overnight tonight when most people will be asleep. Your safest
shelter during a tornado warning is a central room without windows on
the lowest level of your house. A basement room without windows is
ideal. Mobile homes are not a substantial enough structure during a
tornado, and mobile home residents are urged to have a plan for
sheltering in a more substantial structure should a warning be
issued.

Locally heavy rainfall will accompany this pre-frontal band, adding
to the forecast rainfall totals across the N zones. Storm total QPF
values with this system will range from 2 to 4 inches across portions
of the N, with amounts closer to an inch to an inch and a half
elsewhere. Locally heavier amounts are possible, particularly in
areas where heavier storms train over the same area for extended
periods of time. A Flood Watch continues for extreme N GA through
Sunday morning. Some river flooding is possible as well, and a
handful of Flood Warnings are already in effect.

Outside of thunderstorms, the gradient winds will continue to
increase prior to frontal passage. The low-level jet is forecast to
increase, making gusts over 40 mph likely by evening. Higher gusts
are possible, particularly at elevations above 2000 feet. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for all but the SE corner of the area. It
remains possible the a High Wind Warning may be required for a
portion of the area. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Key Messages:

 - Temperatures warm to seasonable through the long term.

 - A weak cold front on Thursday will bring the next chance for
   rain with a few rumbles of thunder possible.

Overall pleasant conditions through the long term. Highs each day
reach into the mid to upper 70s through mid week, before a cold
front brings things back to a seasonable upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows
through the week in the mid 30s and 40s.

Unimpressive PoPs return with the weak cold front. While moisture
availability will not be a problem, upper level forcing and
instability will likely be well separated from the frontal system.
Current guidance keeps total rainfall amounts under 0.5".

Otherwise, mostly clear conditions and fair temperatures will make
for a great week outdoors. If the pollen doesn't get us first!

SM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Bkn line of convection to impact ATL for the next 2 hours. MVFR
cigs possible behind the initial line and should break by mid
morning. Do expect sct-bkn cu this afternoon with some isold shra
possible. Winds will remain gusty through the day with a switch
to the SW side just before 12Z.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med-hi confidence all elements. NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  74  41  62 / 100  30  20   0
Atlanta         61  73  40  59 / 100  20  20   0
Blairsville     54  68  31  54 / 100  50  30   0
Cartersville    57  72  36  59 / 100  30  20   0
Columbus        61  76  42  64 / 100  10   0   0
Gainesville     61  72  39  60 / 100  30  20   0
Macon           63  78  43  62 / 100  20   0   0
Rome            56  71  36  62 / 100  30  10   0
Peachtree City  60  73  38  60 / 100  20  10   0
Vidalia         65  81  48  64 / 100  90   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ001>009-011.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>050-052>060-066>072-078>082-
089>095-102>108.

&&

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....SM
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-162100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
446 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Moderate Risk (level 4 of 5) of severe weather is expected in far
west Georgia and an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe weather is
expected elsewhere across our area late this afternoon, overnight,
and through Sunday morning. All severe weather hazards including
tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will be possible with
thunderstorms that develop. Flash flooding is possible tonight
across portions of northern Georgia, with more localized flooding
possible elsewhere.

Residents should ensure that they have a way of receiving
warnings and a plan for sheltering should warnings be issued!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

River and flash flooding are possible Sunday morning as a result of
heavy rains across northern Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested through Sunday morning. Spotters
are encouraged to report or relay severe weather reports to the
National Weather Service.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
217 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 WNW Tallapoosa        33.77N 85.35W
03/16/2025                   Haralson           GA   Amateur Radio

            Tree blocking the road near the intersection
            of Broad St and Edgar Little Cir.

&&

TLV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
219 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Tallapoosa        33.76N 85.29W
03/16/2025                   Haralson           GA   Amateur Radio

            Tree blocking the road near the intersection
            of Cherokee Dr and Bowdon St.

&&

TLV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
223 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE New Hope          33.95N 84.76W
03/16/2025                   Paulding           GA   Broadcast Media

            Tree across the road near the intersection
            of Trace Rd and Mt Tabor Church Rd.

&&

TLV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Lagrange           33.03N 85.04W
03/16/2025                   Troup              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on house near the intersection of
            Bouledvard St and Ridge St.

&&

TV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
249 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Lagrange           33.05N 85.02W
03/16/2025                   Troup              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on car along Rutland Circle.

&&

TV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Lagrange          33.03N 85.06W
03/16/2025                   Troup              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Red light blown down along Vernon Rd.

&&

TV