Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Messages:

 - Significant severe thunderstorm threat with damaging downburst
   winds expected for north and central Georgia through 2 AM
   tonight.

 - A Heat Advisory remains in place for most of north and central
   Georgia through 8 PM this evening, with far NW Georgia
   continuing through Thursday.

 - Additional thunderstorm activity is expected Thursday afternoon
   and evening, with a lower but still notable risk for damaging
   winds.

Severe Weather Threat Today/Tonight:

A potentially significant severe weather event may unfold this
evening into the early overnight period for portions of north and
central Georgia. The biggest question or pitfall on the threat is
coverage of storms with the lack of forcing mechanism and some
weak capping aloft. We have already seen a few storms over the
higher terrain of north GA break through, and we could see
continued isolated storms over the next few hours. Storm coverage
may increase further after 6PM as the capping aloft weakens and
outflow boundaries from earlier convection start to initiate
storms. Model guidance continues to show potential for a large
cluster or line of storms to develop over SC this evening, and
drift southwest into eastern Georgia between sunset and 2AM. The
18Z sounding at our office summarizes the threat perfectly,
showing a weak cap around 700mb, but otherwise extreme instability
with nearly 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values over
3500 J/kg. Despite weak bulk shear (15kts or less), any storms
that develop in this type of environment would support very strong
downburst winds in the 60 to 80 mph range, as well as large hail.
SPC has upgraded portions of E GA to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of
5). Storm motions will be out of E/NE (atypical for our area!)
and moving rather slow, unless any large cold pools develop with
storm complexes. With that in mind, can't rule out a localized
flash flood risk.

Heat Concerns:

Another hot and humid day across north and central Georgia today.
High temperatures should peak between 95 and 100 degrees this
afternoon and combine with the humidity to produce heat index
values between 100 and 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 8PM for the entire area. Heat of this magnitude is
potentially hazardous for vulnerable groups like young children,
the elderly and pets. Precautions, such has frequent hydration,
limiting outdoor activities and utilizing AC should be taken to
avoid heat related illnesses. Temperatures on Thursday will be a
few degrees cooler with heat index values in most areas peaking
around 100F. One exception will be across far NW GA, where the
Heat Advisory will continue through Thursday evening with
afternoon heat index values around 103-107 in the valleys.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday:

Thursday will start off with mostly clear skies, but another
round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is
expected as well as hot and humid conditions. Coverage in storms
will be higher than today as the influence of the ridge lessens
and the upper level low over Florida moves closer. The environment
for a severe threat is less impressive than today, but there will
still be plenty of instability to support damaging wind gusts.
SPC currently has the entire area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
5) for severe weather.

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
   thunderstorms will be the primary concern through day 7.

 - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages
   this weekend and early next week.

The subtropical high over the western Atlantic will be the
primary force behind Georgia's weather this weekend and early next
week. We stay in more of an easterly flow Friday to start the
extended but our location on the western edge of high will favor a
light southwest flow through the weekend. This will keep
dewpoints in the 70s through the middle of next week keeping
relative humidity at very summer like levels. This combined with
daytime highs temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area
will keep the atmosphere primed each day for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile the strongest subsidence with
the ridge will remain over the Atlantic also helping afternoon
and evening convection to prosper in the Southeastern U.S. each
day. Instability should be respectable each afternoon (MLCAPE
1000-2500 j/kg), promoting vigorous updrafts with any storms. The
usual lack of summer time shear (0-6 km shear below 15 kt) and
limited mid level lapse rates (5.5 C/km or less) should limit any
threat of severe weather to isolated instances of downburst winds.
Thus widespread severe weather is unlikely.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The focus of the TAFs this evening and overnight is timing out
scattered TSRA, as well as an organized cluster of TSRA diving
southwestward across portions of Georgia later tonight. Have
converted PROB30s to TEMPOs at ATL, FTY, PDK, RYY, and AHN given
increasing confidence in convection... with PROB30s still in place
at MCN and CSG. Convection may produce 40-50 kt wind gusts,
possibly greater if convection congeals into a cluster. Small hail
will also be possible. Winds will be light and variable to calm
overnight, barring gusty, erratic TSRA winds. Mid-/upper-level
clouds will remain after the convection ends late tonight/early
tomorrow (Thursday) morning.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of convection this
evening/overnight. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  69  91 /  60  60  50  60
Atlanta         74  96  71  91 /  30  60  50  60
Blairsville     66  90  64  87 /  30  60  50  70
Cartersville    71  95  69  91 /  20  50  50  60
Columbus        74  96  71  91 /  40  50  50  60
Gainesville     72  95  69  90 /  50  60  50  60
Macon           73  96  70  91 /  50  60  50  60
Rome            71  95  69  91 /  20  40  40  60
Peachtree City  71  95  68  91 /  30  60  50  60
Vidalia         74  95  71  93 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>005-011-012-019-
020-030.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ007-013-014-
021>025-027-031>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1111 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270315-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1111 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue tonight. A couple of severe
storms with damaging winds in the 55 to 75 mph range are possible.
Some tree damage and power outages may occur. Hail up to quarter
size will be a secondary threat with any severe storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Heat index values will peak between 99 and 104 degrees on Thursday
afternoon. Precautions should be taken to prevent heat related
illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly,
young children, and pets.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
evening. The strongest storms may produce damaging downburst
wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range.

Additional scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity
is expected each day through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1057 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ074-076-260330-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-
1057 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Washington and central Jefferson Counties through 1130 PM EDT...

At 1057 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Grange to Keysville, and moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Louisville, Wrens, Davisboro, Matthews, Stellaville, Grange, and
Stapletons Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
east central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8228 3305 8229 3301 8228 3283 8264
      3298 8264 3309 8258 3327 8227 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 009DEG 14KT 3305 8253 3325 8223

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1058 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ047-048-260330-
Walton GA-Newton GA-
1058 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Walton and
northeastern Newton Counties through 1130 PM EDT...

At 1058 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Jersey, or near
Monroe, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, Covington, Social Circle, Oxford, Walnut Grove, Jersey, Gum
Creek, and Youth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
north central Georgia. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 400 AM EDT for north central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3379 8387 3380 8373 3364 8370 3363 8393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 003DEG 6KT 3373 8380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ092-093-104>106-260330-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Macon,
western Dooly, southeastern Schley, eastern Sumter and northwestern
Crisp Counties through 1130 PM EDT...

At 1100 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Byromville to near Drayton to near Cordele, and
moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Cordele, Byromville, Leslie, Andersonville, Lilly, De Soto,
Dooling, Desoto, Cobb, Lamar, Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk,
Richwood, New Era, Flint River Wma, Huntington, Pennington,
Andersonville National Historic, Drayton, and Methvins.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
central and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 8393 3191 8392 3191 8402 3197 8422
      3223 8424 3224 8391 3207 8386 3204 8375
      3194 8370 3188 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 075DEG 18KT 3217 8395 3204 8393 3200 8377

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1110 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ083-084-260345-
Wilkinson GA-Twiggs GA-
1110 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Wilkinson and northeastern Twiggs Counties through 1145 PM EDT...

At 1110 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Myricks Mill, or near
Irwinton, moving south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McIntyre and Myricks Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 8335 3285 8322 3271 8320 3269 8330
      3273 8341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 008DEG 8KT 3280 8329

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1113 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ090-102-260345-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-
1113 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Chattahoochee and northern Stewart Counties through 1145 PM EDT...

At 1113 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Charles, or near
Lumpkin, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Lumpkin, Charles, Louvale, and Providence Canyon State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3203 8494 3217 8500 3219 8499 3220 8496
      3221 8497 3222 8496 3222 8493 3224 8491
      3225 8492 3226 8489 3227 8490 3221 8472
      3205 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 099DEG 6KT 3214 8483

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1113 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ031>033-043-044-055-260345-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Clayton GA-Paulding GA-
South Fulton GA-
1113 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Paulding, central Cobb, northeastern Douglas, northwestern Clayton
and southwestern Fulton Counties through 1145 PM EDT...

At 1113 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Mableton, or 7 miles
southwest of Marietta, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Atlanta, Marietta, Douglasville, City of South Fulton, Sandy Springs,
Smyrna, East Point, Forest Park, College Park, Powder Springs,
Austell, Hapeville, Hiram, Lithia Springs, Fair Oaks,
Hartsfield-Jackson Airport, Midtown, Grant Park-Zoo Atlanta, Lost
Mountain Park, and Vinings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
north central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8474 3396 8439 3368 8435 3365 8435
      3365 8434 3363 8434 3365 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 359DEG 12KT 3385 8459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH