Severe Thunderstorm Warning 299, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Messages:

 - Significant severe thunderstorm threat with damaging downburst
   winds expected for north and central Georgia through 2 AM
   tonight.

 - A Heat Advisory remains in place for most of north and central
   Georgia through 8 PM this evening, with far NW Georgia
   continuing through Thursday.

 - Additional thunderstorm activity is expected Thursday afternoon
   and evening, with a lower but still notable risk for damaging
   winds.

Severe Weather Threat Today/Tonight:

A potentially significant severe weather event may unfold this
evening into the early overnight period for portions of north and
central Georgia. The biggest question or pitfall on the threat is
coverage of storms with the lack of forcing mechanism and some
weak capping aloft. We have already seen a few storms over the
higher terrain of north GA break through, and we could see
continued isolated storms over the next few hours. Storm coverage
may increase further after 6PM as the capping aloft weakens and
outflow boundaries from earlier convection start to initiate
storms. Model guidance continues to show potential for a large
cluster or line of storms to develop over SC this evening, and
drift southwest into eastern Georgia between sunset and 2AM. The
18Z sounding at our office summarizes the threat perfectly,
showing a weak cap around 700mb, but otherwise extreme instability
with nearly 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values over
3500 J/kg. Despite weak bulk shear (15kts or less), any storms
that develop in this type of environment would support very strong
downburst winds in the 60 to 80 mph range, as well as large hail.
SPC has upgraded portions of E GA to an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of
5). Storm motions will be out of E/NE (atypical for our area!)
and moving rather slow, unless any large cold pools develop with
storm complexes. With that in mind, can't rule out a localized
flash flood risk.

Heat Concerns:

Another hot and humid day across north and central Georgia today.
High temperatures should peak between 95 and 100 degrees this
afternoon and combine with the humidity to produce heat index
values between 100 and 109 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 8PM for the entire area. Heat of this magnitude is
potentially hazardous for vulnerable groups like young children,
the elderly and pets. Precautions, such has frequent hydration,
limiting outdoor activities and utilizing AC should be taken to
avoid heat related illnesses. Temperatures on Thursday will be a
few degrees cooler with heat index values in most areas peaking
around 100F. One exception will be across far NW GA, where the
Heat Advisory will continue through Thursday evening with
afternoon heat index values around 103-107 in the valleys.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday:

Thursday will start off with mostly clear skies, but another
round of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is
expected as well as hot and humid conditions. Coverage in storms
will be higher than today as the influence of the ridge lessens
and the upper level low over Florida moves closer. The environment
for a severe threat is less impressive than today, but there will
still be plenty of instability to support damaging wind gusts.
SPC currently has the entire area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
5) for severe weather.

Culver

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Key Messages:

 - Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
   thunderstorms will be the primary concern through day 7.

 - Temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal averages
   this weekend and early next week.

The subtropical high over the western Atlantic will be the
primary force behind Georgia's weather this weekend and early next
week. We stay in more of an easterly flow Friday to start the
extended but our location on the western edge of high will favor a
light southwest flow through the weekend. This will keep
dewpoints in the 70s through the middle of next week keeping
relative humidity at very summer like levels. This combined with
daytime highs temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area
will keep the atmosphere primed each day for diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile the strongest subsidence with
the ridge will remain over the Atlantic also helping afternoon
and evening convection to prosper in the Southeastern U.S. each
day. Instability should be respectable each afternoon (MLCAPE
1000-2500 j/kg), promoting vigorous updrafts with any storms. The
usual lack of summer time shear (0-6 km shear below 15 kt) and
limited mid level lapse rates (5.5 C/km or less) should limit any
threat of severe weather to isolated instances of downburst winds.
Thus widespread severe weather is unlikely.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The focus of the TAFs this evening and overnight is timing out
scattered TSRA, as well as an organized cluster of TSRA diving
southwestward across portions of Georgia later tonight. Have
converted PROB30s to TEMPOs at ATL, FTY, PDK, RYY, and AHN given
increasing confidence in convection... with PROB30s still in place
at MCN and CSG. Convection may produce 40-50 kt wind gusts,
possibly greater if convection congeals into a cluster. Small hail
will also be possible. Winds will be light and variable to calm
overnight, barring gusty, erratic TSRA winds. Mid-/upper-level
clouds will remain after the convection ends late tonight/early
tomorrow (Thursday) morning.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of convection this
evening/overnight. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  96  69  91 /  60  60  50  60
Atlanta         74  96  71  91 /  30  60  50  60
Blairsville     66  90  64  87 /  30  60  50  70
Cartersville    71  95  69  91 /  20  50  50  60
Columbus        74  96  71  91 /  40  50  50  60
Gainesville     72  95  69  90 /  50  60  50  60
Macon           73  96  70  91 /  50  60  50  60
Rome            71  95  69  91 /  20  40  40  60
Peachtree City  71  95  68  91 /  30  60  50  60
Vidalia         74  95  71  93 /  50  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ001>005-011-012-019-
020-030.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ007-013-014-
021>025-027-031>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
902 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270115-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
902 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue this evening, with
more widespread thunderstorms becoming more likely between 10 PM
tonight and 4 AM Thursday. Some of these storms are expected to be
severe with damaging winds in the 55 to 75 mph range being the
primary concern. Some tree damage and power outages may occur.
Hail up to quarter size will be a secondary threat with any severe
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Heat index values will peak between 99 and 104 degrees on Thursday
afternoon. Precautions should be taken to prevent heat related
illnesses, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly,
young children, and pets.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
evening. The strongest storms may produce damaging downburst
wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range.

Additional scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity
is expected each day through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
920 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Hail             Waco                    33.70N 85.18W
06/25/2025  E1.00 Inch       Haralson           GA   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from Waco.
            Quarter-sized hail reported in Waco.

&&

KME

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
927 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Clermont            34.54N 83.79W
06/25/2025                   White              GA   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down and blocking the roadway at
            Westmoreland Rd near Smith Rd.

&&

KME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ024-260200-
Banks GA-
930 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Banks
County through 1000 PM EDT...

At 930 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Boydville, or 7 miles
southwest of Toccoa, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hollingsworth and Pinefield Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northeastern Georgia. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until midnight EDT for northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3448 8347 3447 8342 3446 8340 3442 8338
      3439 8338 3434 8339 3438 8358 3449 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 016DEG 5KT 3449 8338

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
935 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ027-260200-
Madison GA-
935 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Madison
County through 1000 PM EDT...

At 934 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Royston, or 8 miles
southeast of Carnesville, moving south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Madison County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northeastern Georgia. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until midnight EDT for northeastern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 8312 3423 8308 3421 8309 3419 8309
      3417 8310 3415 8307 3418 8322 3424 8321
      3425 8320 3424 8317 3427 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 004DEG 4KT 3429 8312

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
937 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ042-260215-
Carroll GA-
937 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Carroll
County through 1015 PM EDT...

At 937 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Carrollton. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Mount Zion, Whitesburg, Roopville, Clem, Abilene, John
Tanner State Park, Lowell, Treasure Lake, Bowdon Junction, Tyus, and
Seaton Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3367 8515 3365 8490 3357 8490 3344 8493
      3344 8495 3346 8498 3345 8499 3344 8498
      3344 8499 3347 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 004DEG 4KT 3358 8507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
954 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

GAZ104>106-260230-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
954 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Dooly,
east central Sumter and northwestern Crisp Counties through 1030 PM
EDT...

At 954 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Georgia Veterans
Memorial St Pk, or 10 miles west of Cordele. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cobb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8388 3197 8387 3194 8398 3198 8406
      3205 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 072DEG 1KT 3200 8395

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH