Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Atlanta, GA

597 
WWUS52 KFFC 210314
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1114 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

GAC123-213-210324-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0202.000000T0000Z-250521T0330Z/
Gilmer GA-Murray GA-
1114 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GILMER AND CENTRAL MURRAY
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for north central
and northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3484 8437 3480 8430 3473 8428 3462 8434
      3465 8488 3471 8487 3472 8486 3474 8487
      3474 8485 3476 8487 3479 8486 3480 8484
      3482 8486 3483 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 274DEG 25KT 3474 8453 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
933 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

As of this update, storms ahead of the main frontal boundary have
begun to move into far northwestern GA (Dade/Walker Co.). A
Tornado Watch remains in effect until 10PM for these areas and 2AM
for the remainder of North GA (from Whitfield to Union counties down
to Forsyth and back to Bartow counties). We have been closely
monitoring storms moving in from northern Alabama as several have
a history of producing large hail and tornadoes. In our
northwestern counties - MUCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg,
0-6km shear of 40-50kts, 0-3km helicity of ~200 m2/s2 and upper
support from the shortwave swinging through the TN/Ohio Valley
will continue to support the supercell structures we're currently
seeing move through North AL into NW GA. Our focus will then turn
to the activity moving through Central AL which will into the
western portions of our area overnight. It is anticipated that the
activity will become more of a broken line of storms as it pushes
through the remainder of the forecast area. We will definitely be
monitoring trends over the next several hours in the event the
Tornado Watch needs to be extended further south and east but it
does still appear that the severe weather threat overall becomes
more isolated in nature as the night goes on given lessening
instability and upper level supper lifts northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Key Messages:

 - Severe thunderstorms are expected in northwest Georgia between
   7 PM this evening and 2 AM Wednesday.

 - Damaging winds of 50 to 70 mph are the main threat, but an
   isolated tornado or burst of large hail are also possible.

 - Storm intensity should decrease as storms move into central
   Georgia after 2 AM, though and isolated severe threat will
   remain.

Severe Weather Potential Along & North of Interstate 85:

A cold front and an upper level shortwave will provide the necessary
lift for thunderstorms in northern Georgia this evening and tonight.
Instability for the storms to work with should decrease as they
advance eastward out of Alabama, but the 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE
indicated by the 12Z HREF should be more than sufficient to maintain
convective intensity north of Interstate 85. Shear does't look like
and issue, with mean 0-6 km shear values in the CAM guidance
hovering between 40 and 50 kts. Forecast soundings continue to prog
sufficient low level hodograph curvature to support a risk for
tornadoes, with that risk increasing as you move northward from
Interstate 85. The primary challenge in the forecast is determining
the storm mode for northwest Georgia. Most of the guidance suggests
a broken line of thunderstorms, but there is some potential for
isolated supercells either ahead of or within this line. If
supercells occur then the tornado threat may become a more
significant concern. For now damaging wind gusts in the 50 to 70 mph
range remain the primary expected hazard for northwest Georgia.
Isolated large hail will also be possible, especially closer to the
AL/GA border. The expected storm timing remains relatively
unchanged. We expect storms to be on the doorstep of Dade County by
around 7 PM, with the severe risk peaking between 7 PM and 2 AM.
Please note that SPC has maintained and slightly expanded the
Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather with the latest
update. It now includes a portion of the Atlanta Metro.

Severe Weather Potential South of Interstate 85:

The shortwave helping to drive mid and upper level support for
thunderstorm activity will move towards the northeast early
Wednesday morning. As this occurs thunderstorm activity should
become increasing driven by cold front/cold pool interactions. This
combination may encourage storms to alight in a more east-west
direction. Leading to a less favorable alignment with the vertical
shear profile and decreasing the overall potential for damaging
winds. While instability will be favorable for continued storms
after 2 AM, it will decrease as convection moves into central
Georgia. This is evident in the CAMs, which continue to favor the
most widespread overnight thunderstorm activity along the AL/GA
border where instability is the highest. Given these considerations
the primary thunderstorm hazard as storms move south of Interstate
85 is expected to be damaging winds gusts in the 40 t0 60 mph range.

Quiet Weather Returns Wednesday:

Isolated thunderstorms may longer in central Georgia Wednesday
morning. By the afternoon the cold front should push into south
Georgia resulting in a more stable atmosphere. This will lead to dry
weather and partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. A slight reduction
in temperatures is expected behind the front, but most areas will
still see temperatures in the 80s Wednesday afternoon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

At a glance:

 - Quiet start to the long term.

 - The chances for thunderstorms will return by the end of the
   weekend.

The long term picks up with a break from showers and thunderstorms
as high pressure establishes itself over the SE. Some upper level
ridging will keep the flow generally west/northwest which will bring
us a break from the humidity as well. Temps will be a few degrees
below normal and pleasantly in the upper 70s to mid 80s as you head
further south down the CWA. Dewpoints though will be limited to the
50s and even a few day in the 40s which I expect will feel lovely.

As the weekend approaches, the upper level flow shifts back to the
SW and we start to build in moisture as the next impulse pulses
through. As of now, both of the major models want to take that
system through TN limiting storm potential to northern GA, but it's
a week out and I suspect there will some variation in both location
and timing as the week unfolds. The primary concern with that system
is the potential for it to stall as a stationary front across the SE
which in turn would provide a lift source for however long it
decides to stick with us. This could present both a localized
flooding threat and the potential for severe weather along the
northern most extent of the warm sector. Lots of variables to
consider, so please continue to monitor the forecast if you have
plans early next week.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

A line of shra/tsra will be moving through the region between
roughly 03-09z. VRB/erratic winds, lower vsbys and cigs will be
possible as the line moves through. MVFR cigs will be possible
following the FROPA persisting until 13-15z before scattering out.
Still a question as to weather the line will be able to maintain
itself by the time it reaches MCN -- for now maintain a PROB30 for
tsra between 08-11z. Gusty WNW/NW winds following FROPA after 14z
through the afternoon -- gusts 22-26kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  90  67  85 /  10  10  50   0
Atlanta         70  90  69  84 /  10  10  70   0
Blairsville     62  83  61  77 /  10  20  90  10
Cartersville    68  91  66  83 /  10  10  80   0
Columbus        68  91  70  89 /   0  10  60  20
Gainesville     67  89  67  82 /  10  10  70   0
Macon           68  91  70  90 /   0  10  30  20
Rome            68  89  66  82 /  10  20  80   0
Peachtree City  67  90  67  86 /  10  10  70   0
Vidalia         71  93  73  91 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
218 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
218 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into northwest
Georgia after 7 PM, then the storms will spread south and east
overnight. The highest potential for severe weather is expected
along and north of Interstate 85 prior to 2 AM. Damaging winds
gusts of 50 to 70 mph are the primary expected hazard. An isolated
tornado or large hail could also occur. A limited risk for
damaging wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range exists for central
Georgia between 2 AM and 9 AM Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Isolated thunderstorms may return to north Georgia Saturday and
Sunday. Then on Memorial Day scattered thunderstorms are expected.
At this time the risk for severe weather over the holiday weekend
remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.