Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Atlanta, GA

439 
WWUS52 KFFC 210122
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
922 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

GAC047-083-295-210130-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-250521T0130Z/
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
922 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CATOOSA...CENTRAL WALKER AND CENTRAL DADE
COUNTIES...

At 921 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lookout Mountain to near Chattanooga  Valley to
Cooper Heights to near Rising Fawn, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Fort Oglethorpe, Chickamauga, La Fayette, Chattanooga
Valley, Rising Fawn, Noble, Blue Spring, Stephensville, Cloudland
Canyon State Park, Cooper Heights, Rock Spring, and Fairview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for northwestern
Georgia.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8519 3482 8521 3469 8531 3467 8555
      3488 8559 3493 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 265DEG 39KT 3504 8538 3487 8536 3482 8538 3474
8546

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

563 
WWUS52 KFFC 210132
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
932 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

GAC047-083-295-210141-
/O.EXP.KFFC.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-250521T0130Z/
Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
932 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CATOOSA...CENTRAL
WALKER AND CENTRAL DADE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM EDT for northwestern
Georgia.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Walker and Dade counties.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for southern 
Dade and southwestern Walker counties.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8519 3482 8521 3469 8531 3467 8555
      3488 8559 3493 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 265DEG 39KT 3504 8538 3487 8536 3482 8538 3474
8546

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
739 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Key Messages:

 - Severe thunderstorms are expected in northwest Georgia between
   7 PM this evening and 2 AM Wednesday.

 - Damaging winds of 50 to 70 mph are the main threat, but an
   isolated tornado or burst of large hail are also possible.

 - Storm intensity should decrease as storms move into central
   Georgia after 2 AM, though and isolated severe threat will
   remain.

Severe Weather Potential Along & North of Interstate 85:

A cold front and an upper level shortwave will provide the necessary
lift for thunderstorms in northern Georgia this evening and tonight.
Instability for the storms to work with should decrease as they
advance eastward out of Alabama, but the 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE
indicated by the 12Z HREF should be more than sufficient to maintain
convective intensity north of Interstate 85. Shear does't look like
and issue, with mean 0-6 km shear values in the CAM guidance
hovering between 40 and 50 kts. Forecast soundings continue to prog
sufficient low level hodograph curvature to support a risk for
tornadoes, with that risk increasing as you move northward from
Interstate 85. The primary challenge in the forecast is determining
the storm mode for northwest Georgia. Most of the guidance suggests
a broken line of thunderstorms, but there is some potential for
isolated supercells either ahead of or within this line. If
supercells occur then the tornado threat may become a more
significant concern. For now damaging wind gusts in the 50 to 70 mph
range remain the primary expected hazard for northwest Georgia.
Isolated large hail will also be possible, especially closer to the
AL/GA border. The expected storm timing remains relatively
unchanged. We expect storms to be on the doorstep of Dade County by
around 7 PM, with the severe risk peaking between 7 PM and 2 AM.
Please note that SPC has maintained and slightly expanded the
Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather with the latest
update. It now includes a portion of the Atlanta Metro.

Severe Weather Potential South of Interstate 85:

The shortwave helping to drive mid and upper level support for
thunderstorm activity will move towards the northeast early
Wednesday morning. As this occurs thunderstorm activity should
become increasing driven by cold front/cold pool interactions. This
combination may encourage storms to alight in a more east-west
direction. Leading to a less favorable alignment with the vertical
shear profile and decreasing the overall potential for damaging
winds. While instability will be favorable for continued storms
after 2 AM, it will decrease as convection moves into central
Georgia. This is evident in the CAMs, which continue to favor the
most widespread overnight thunderstorm activity along the AL/GA
border where instability is the highest. Given these considerations
the primary thunderstorm hazard as storms move south of Interstate
85 is expected to be damaging winds gusts in the 40 t0 60 mph range.

Quiet Weather Returns Wednesday:

Isolated thunderstorms may longer in central Georgia Wednesday
morning. By the afternoon the cold front should push into south
Georgia resulting in a more stable atmosphere. This will lead to dry
weather and partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. A slight reduction
in temperatures is expected behind the front, but most areas will
still see temperatures in the 80s Wednesday afternoon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

At a glance:

 - Quiet start to the long term.

 - The chances for thunderstorms will return by the end of the
   weekend.

The long term picks up with a break from showers and thunderstorms
as high pressure establishes itself over the SE. Some upper level
ridging will keep the flow generally west/northwest which will bring
us a break from the humidity as well. Temps will be a few degrees
below normal and pleasantly in the upper 70s to mid 80s as you head
further south down the CWA. Dewpoints though will be limited to the
50s and even a few day in the 40s which I expect will feel lovely.

As the weekend approaches, the upper level flow shifts back to the
SW and we start to build in moisture as the next impulse pulses
through. As of now, both of the major models want to take that
system through TN limiting storm potential to northern GA, but it's
a week out and I suspect there will some variation in both location
and timing as the week unfolds. The primary concern with that system
is the potential for it to stall as a stationary front across the SE
which in turn would provide a lift source for however long it
decides to stick with us. This could present both a localized
flooding threat and the potential for severe weather along the
northern most extent of the warm sector. Lots of variables to
consider, so please continue to monitor the forecast if you have
plans early next week.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

A line of shra/tsra will be moving through the region between
roughly 03-09z. VRB/erratic winds, lower vsbys and cigs will be
possible as the line moves through. MVFR cigs will be possible
following the FROPA persisting until 13-15z before scattering out.
Still a question as to weather the line will be able to maintain
itself by the time it reaches MCN -- for now maintain a PROB30 for
tsra between 08-11z. Gusty WNW/NW winds following FROPA after 14z
through the afternoon -- gusts 22-26kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Medium confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  85  60  82 /  50   0   0   0
Atlanta         69  84  63  83 /  70   0   0   0
Blairsville     61  77  54  73 /  90  10   0  20
Cartersville    66  83  59  81 /  80   0   0  10
Columbus        70  89  62  88 /  60  20   0   0
Gainesville     67  82  60  79 /  70   0   0  10
Macon           70  90  62  88 /  30  20   0   0
Rome            66  82  58  80 /  80   0   0  10
Peachtree City  67  86  60  85 /  70   0   0   0
Vidalia         73  91  64  89 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
218 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211830-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
218 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north and central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move into northwest
Georgia after 7 PM, then the storms will spread south and east
overnight. The highest potential for severe weather is expected
along and north of Interstate 85 prior to 2 AM. Damaging winds
gusts of 50 to 70 mph are the primary expected hazard. An isolated
tornado or large hail could also occur. A limited risk for
damaging wind gusts in the 40 to 60 mph range exists for central
Georgia between 2 AM and 9 AM Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Isolated thunderstorms may return to north Georgia Saturday and
Sunday. Then on Memorial Day scattered thunderstorms are expected.
At this time the risk for severe weather over the holiday weekend
remains low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta. Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.