Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A weak frontal boundary is noted on satellite imagery early this
afternoon over the Hill Country. A cumulus field has started to form
along this boundary and is expected to be the focus for convection
this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and storms, some
capable of locally heavy rainfall, with rates of 1-2" per hour are
possible with this activity as it shifts southward through the
afternoon and evening hours. The latest 12Z suite of CAMs indicates
showers and storms erupting around 18Z over the Hill Country and
stretching east through the northern I-35 Corridor and northern
Coastal Plains, then pushing southward with time through the late
afternoon and early evening hours. These storms should primarily be
heavy rain producers, but could produce a couple of localized wind
gusts in excess of 40-50 mph due to a lack of shear in the atmosphere
to separate the updraft/downdraft interface. WPC still has a Day 1
Marginal risk for excessive rainfall over much of the region and this
makes sense given HREF mean PWATs in the 1.8-2.0 range ahead of the
frontal boundary.

Any storms should dissipate after sunset as loss of daytime heating
should weaken them. Northwest flow continues aloft through the
remainder of the weekend with a chance for a few isolated showers or
storms from a decaying complex of storms over the Hill Country Sunday
afternoon. For now, the chances are increasingly lower that storms
will hold together and make it into our region early Sunday
afternoon, but will hold onto low end PoPs to account for the
uncertainty here. Otherwise, additional rain chances arrive during
the start of the long term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Northwest flow continues during the start of the long term period, as
ridging remains situated to our west. One more chance at showers and
storms is expected Monday afternoon and evening, primarily north of
I-10 and east of the Hill Country, with some locally heavy rain
possible once again. Any activity should decrease in coverage and
dissipate after sunset.

Tuesday and beyond, hot and dry conditions are expected as mid-level
ridging strengthens and pushes a bit further east. This should dry
out the mid-levels a bit more and result in increased large scale
sinking air. Temperatures are expected to remain near the same with
highs in the mid to upper 90s and lower 100s through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as early as 19Z, mainly
impacting locations over the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country,
I-35 corridor and the coastal plains. At I-35 terminals,
thunderstorms could bring winds up to around 20 kts and locally
heavy downpours through around 01-02Z. Outside of thunderstorms,
wind will be less than 10 kts. No rain is forecast at KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  77  99  77 /  30  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  98  76  99  77 /  30  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     98  74 100  76 /  30  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            95  74  96  75 /  30  10  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  79 103  80 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  75  98  77 /  30  10  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport             99  75 100  76 /  30  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        99  74 100  76 /  30  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  75  97  77 /  40  30  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  77 100  79 /  40  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport          101  77 102  78 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...27

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

TXZ172-173-021830-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
1247 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Williamson and northeastern Burnet Counties through 130 PM CDT...

At 1247 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Joppa, or near Bertram, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Burnet, Bertram, Lake Victor, Mahomet, Sunnylane, Joppa, Watson,
Andice, Oatmeal, Briggs, and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 9827 3103 9805 3076 9780 3061 9808
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 325DEG 8KT 3084 9805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM