Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
  possible today and again on Saturday.

- Temperatures remain near seasonal levels for early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

A 500mb ridge remains centered over the border of southern
Arizona/New Mexico and northern Mexico early this afternoon. Around
this high, a mid-level shortwave will slide south along with a weak
surface frontal boundary acting as a focus for shower and
thunderstorm development. Latest visible satellite imagery does show
some patchy cumulus starting to bubble up over the Hill Country. This
should result in showers and storms developing by mid-afternoon,
sliding west-southwest in conjunction with mid-level steering flow
out of the east-northeast.

WPC has placed the Hill Country and northern I-35 Corridor in a
Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall today, followed
by similar locations, including the Coastal Plains on Saturday. At
this point, the setup for Saturday looks more impressive than the one
for today, with increased moisture noted throughout the atmosphere
for Saturday on model forecast soundings. The 12Z HREF has been
rather bullish on heavy rainfall probabilities for Saturday afternoon
with a few spots possibly picking up a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall.
Despite the increased rain chances, the flash flooding risk looks to
be low at this time. The HREF grand ensemble does show a 50-70%
chance within a 25 mile radius for greater than 1 inch of rainfall
over the 24 hour period ending Saturday evening, so there is the
potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Besides the rain, the other thing to mention is the heat. Hot and
humid conditions are expected both today and Saturday, with heat
indices approaching the 100-107 range, close to heat advisory
criteria for all but the Rio Grande Plains. Despite the fact that
this kind of heat is more typical for late July and early August, our
typically hottest stretch of the year, climatologically is the first
and second week of August. It's important to practice heat safety and
take proper precautions if you plan to spend extended time outdoors
today and Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

On Sunday, the 500mb ridge attempts to push a bit further east and
bring drier weather to our region, however, some of the more recent
guidance from global models indicates this ridge will remain a bit
further west, opening the door for continued shower and storm
chances, primarily over the Coastal Plains. The GFS has been the most
aggressive, showing yet another complex of storms organizing to our
north and pushing south into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau
region Sunday night. At this distance, it looks as if it should
weaken considerably before making it into our CWA, but something to
keep an eye on. Low end PoPs were kept in place to account for this
possibility. Beyond Monday, hot and dry conditions look to rule the
long term period as ridging shifts a bit further east into north
Texas. Temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 each day with heat
indices in the 100-105 range are typical for the first week or two
of August.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Isolated SHRA/TSRA activity ongoing early this evening across the
Hill Country and Central Texas is forecast to gradually dissipate
after sunset. Otherwise, VFR conditions through the night and into
the morning on Saturday. Another round of isolated to scattered
SHRA/TSRA activity is forecast Saturday afternoon and early evening,
this time positioned slightly farther south that today. We have
included PROB30 TSRA in the TAFs after 20Z Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  98  77  99 /  20  40  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  97  76  98 /  20  40  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  98  75  99 /  20  40  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            75  94  74  96 /  20  30  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 101  79 103 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  96  75  97 /  30  40  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  76 100 /  10  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  98  75  99 /  20  40  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  96  76  97 /  20  50  30  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  98  78  99 /  10  40  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           77 101  77 101 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...76

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

TXZ172-173-012100-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Williamson and central Burnet Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Harker Heights to near
Longhorn Cavern State Park. Movement was southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Burnet, Marble Falls, Kingsland, Bertram, Buchanan Dam, Granite
Shoals, Jarrell, Florence, Highland Haven, Inks Lake State Park,
Oatmeal, Briggs, Mahomet, Longhorn Cavern State Park, Joppa, Andice,
and Shady Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 9783 3087 9764 3077 9762 3058 9841
      3060 9840 3068 9843 3068 9840 3070 9842
      3074 9837 3076 9841 3096 9786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 042DEG 9KT 3096 9772 3070 9832

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
444 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

TXZ189-190-012230-
Blanco TX-Kendall TX-
444 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Blanco
and northeastern Kendall Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Payton, or near Blanco, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blanco, Payton, Flugrath, Kendalia, and Twin Sisters.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3014 9826 3004 9830 2999 9835 2996 9854
      3018 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 092DEG 11KT 3006 9835

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
544 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

TXZ173-012330-
Williamson TX-
544 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Williamson County through 630 PM CDT...

At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Thrall, or 7 miles east of Taylor, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Hutto, Thorndale, Thrall, Granger Dam, Coupland, Rices
Crossing, Laneport, Hoxie, Beyarsville, Waterloo, Hare, Noack, and
Sandoval.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9727 3058 9720 3042 9736 3042 9738
      3044 9740 3044 9742 3046 9743 3046 9745
      3059 9756 3075 9730
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 058DEG 5KT 3060 9730

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

TXZ184-185-020000-
Edwards TX-Real TX-
615 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Edwards
and northwestern Real Counties through 700 PM CDT...

At 615 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rocksprings, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rocksprings and Devil's Sinkhole State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3027 9986 3004 9975 2987 10031 3014 10045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 078DEG 12KT 3004 10012

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
650 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Thrall                  30.59N 97.30W
08/01/2025                   Williamson         TX   Emergency Mngr

            Power lines and trees down on Lydia Lane.

&&

JR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
712 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

TXZ191-192-020100-
Hays TX-Travis TX-
712 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Hays and
southwestern Travis Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shady Hollow, or over Tanglewood Forest, moving southwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Buda, Dripping Springs, Wimberley, Tanglewood Forest,
Woodcreek, Bear Creek, Onion Creek, Barton Creek, Driftwood, Shady
Hollow, Manchaca, Mountain City, Sunset Valley, San Leanna, Hays,
Mount Gainor, Hays City, and Lost Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9787 3025 9777 3016 9774 2992 9804
      3012 9822
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 052DEG 20KT 3019 9788

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MO