Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

309 
WWUS54 KEWX 240023
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
723 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

TXC031-171-240100-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250324T0100Z/
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-
723 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BLANCO AND EAST CENTRAL GILLESPIE COUNTIES...

At 723 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Rocky Creek, or
12 miles northwest of Blanco, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Stonewall, Rocky Creek, Flugrath, Hye, Sandy, Albert,
LBJ State Park, and LBJ National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 9829 3005 9851 3010 9856 3025 9868
      3038 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 307DEG 7KT 3025 9853 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MM

913 
WWUS54 KEWX 240046
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
746 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

TXC031-171-240100-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250324T0100Z/
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-
746 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL BLANCO AND EAST CENTRAL GILLESPIE COUNTIES...

At 745 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hye, or 11
miles northwest of Blanco, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Rocky Creek, Flugrath, Hye, Albert, LBJ State Park, and
LBJ National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9851 3010 9856 3023 9867 3032 9855
      3023 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 291DEG 9KT 3023 9855 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 62
... Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Thunderstorms have begun to form ahead of a front and will continue
through the evening. The airmass ahead of the front is warm and moist
with CAPE values forecast near 2000 j/kg. There is not much deep
layer shear, but that much CAPE should be sufficient to generate
severe storms. Large hail looks to be the most likely threat. We have
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch which is in effect until 1 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Key Message:

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into early Monday
morning for portions of the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor.

A cold front is currently moving through northwest Texas and will
continue to move southward through this afternoon and evening. As
the front moves into portions of the Hill Country shortly after peak
heating, we should see isolated to scattered showers and storms
develop along the front. A weak upper disturbance and decent
instability should allow for a few strong to severe storms to
develop along the front. Recent updates from the SPC Day 1
convective outlook now place most of Williamson, Travis, Bastrop and
Lee counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather.
Farther south and west, the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
storms extends across most of the Hill Country into the I-35
corridor near New Braunfels, then eastward to near La Grange. The
main severe weather concern will be large hail, along with damaging
winds. The main time window of concern is roughly 6 PM this evening
until 3 AM Monday morning.

Not much cooling is anticipated behind the above mentioned cold
front on Monday as daytime highs are still expected to reach the 80s
for most locations. We did keep a low chance for late afternoon
showers and storms in the forecast for areas right along the Rio
Grande. At least one or two of the hi-res models show the
possibility of an isolated storm or two over portions of the Hill
Country into the southern Edwards Plateau Monday afternoon and
evening as a warm front lifts northward. For now we will keep the
forecast dry as both large scale forcing and atmospheric winds are
fairly weak. We will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Key Messages:

-Hot & dry Tuesday with some mild fire weather concerns

-Best chance of rain in several weeks from late Wednesday through
 Friday, with widespread 1+ inch rains possible

The hottest day of the next week is Tuesday as a large western CONUS
upper ridge extends into TX. Undercutting this upper ridge is a broad
upper disturbance moving east along the US/Mexico border toward TX.
The combined effects of these systems brings not only a hot day but
possibly a breezy one as southerly surface winds increase ahead of
the disturbance. The winds are not expected to particularly strong
like the ones from last week's multi-day fire weather patterns, but
there could be just enough for an afternoon of locally elevated fire
weather conditions. Thankfully, this is is about it for the fire
weather issues for awhile as a near widespread rain event is expected
for Wednesday through Friday.

Initially moisture levels will be limited for daytime Wednesday, so the
initial rain chances will be mostly west of Hwy 281 to the Rio Grande
and fed mostly by elevated Pacific instability and moisture. The
moist and unstable layer becomes more rooted toward the surface by
Thursday morning, and a solid conveyor belt of low to mid level
moisture should bring many hours of good rain opportunity for much of
the area. The latest GFS still shows a scenario of multiple waves of
convection moving through the broad upper trough over TX, but the
amounts have come down to earth compared to what was seen in the 12Z
3/22 run. We still believe that there will be a larger embedded
complex that will provide the bulk of the rain as opposed to multiple
waves, but we'd love to be wrong! Assuming the more conservative
scenario, a solid swath of 1-2 inch rains should temporarily silence
the fire weather concerns for a week or two and usher in a more
definitive green-up that has eluded much our area so far this spring.

Some secondary rounds of showers and storms are depicted as late as
the wee hours Saturday morning, but a mostly dry and mild weekend is
projected. There is a quick-hitting wave of convection possible in
Central Texas Sunday afternoon according to the GFS, but the ECM and
CMC do not reflect this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Thunderstorms are in the forecast at area terminals this evening.
Opted for more confidence at AUS with a TEMPO group while a PROB30
was utilized for lower confidence in storms reaching SAT and SSF.
MVFR ceilings now appear less likely at AUS and most likely at SAT,
SSF, and DRT. We will see a wind shift overnight, primarily between
05Z-09Z with northeasterly winds behind a frontal boundary. A shift
to more easterly and east-southeasterly is expected by midday Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  85  63  91 /  50   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  85  59  90 /  50   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  87  61  92 /  40   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            56  83  58  91 /  30   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  89  64  93 /  10  20  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  84  59  91 /  40   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             62  89  60  92 /  20  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        60  85  60  90 /  50   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  83  63  88 /  40  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  86  63  91 /  40   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  88  63  92 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...18
Aviation...MMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
518 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

TXZ171-188-232300-
Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
518 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Gillespie and southwestern Llano Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Crabapple, or 8 miles northwest of Fredericksburg,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Cherry Spring, Prairie Mountain, Enchanted Rock State
Natural Area, Eckert, Crabapple, Willow City, and Oxford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 9860 3036 9859 3025 9894 3043 9908
      3050 9900 3050 9897 3053 9896 3063 9884
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 237DEG 9KT 3038 9894

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
638 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

TXZ188-190-240030-
Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-
638 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Blanco and
east central Gillespie Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 638 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hye, or 15 miles southwest of Round Mountain, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blanco, Johnson City, Stonewall, Rocky Creek, Hye, Sandy, Pedernales
Falls State Park, LBJ State Park, and LBJ National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3028 9871 3042 9864 3032 9823 3007 9836
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 295DEG 14KT 3032 9859

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Brady

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
641 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     Hail             Harper                  30.30N 99.24W
03/23/2025  E0.50 Inch       Gillespie          TX   Public

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Hail             9 NE Enchanted Rock Sta 30.59N 98.70W
03/23/2025  M0.75 Inch       Llano              TX   Cocorahs

&&

CVP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
701 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Hail             3 W Harper              30.30N 99.30W
03/23/2025  M2.00 Inch       Gillespie          TX   Public

            Time estimated via radar.

&&

MB