Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...New AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 62
... Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Thunderstorms have begun to form ahead of a front and will continue
through the evening. The airmass ahead of the front is warm and moist
with CAPE values forecast near 2000 j/kg. There is not much deep
layer shear, but that much CAPE should be sufficient to generate
severe storms. Large hail looks to be the most likely threat. We have
issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch which is in effect until 1 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Key Message:

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into early Monday
morning for portions of the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor.

A cold front is currently moving through northwest Texas and will
continue to move southward through this afternoon and evening. As
the front moves into portions of the Hill Country shortly after peak
heating, we should see isolated to scattered showers and storms
develop along the front. A weak upper disturbance and decent
instability should allow for a few strong to severe storms to
develop along the front. Recent updates from the SPC Day 1
convective outlook now place most of Williamson, Travis, Bastrop and
Lee counties in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather.
Farther south and west, the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
storms extends across most of the Hill Country into the I-35
corridor near New Braunfels, then eastward to near La Grange. The
main severe weather concern will be large hail, along with damaging
winds. The main time window of concern is roughly 6 PM this evening
until 3 AM Monday morning.

Not much cooling is anticipated behind the above mentioned cold
front on Monday as daytime highs are still expected to reach the 80s
for most locations. We did keep a low chance for late afternoon
showers and storms in the forecast for areas right along the Rio
Grande. At least one or two of the hi-res models show the
possibility of an isolated storm or two over portions of the Hill
Country into the southern Edwards Plateau Monday afternoon and
evening as a warm front lifts northward. For now we will keep the
forecast dry as both large scale forcing and atmospheric winds are
fairly weak. We will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Key Messages:

-Hot & dry Tuesday with some mild fire weather concerns

-Best chance of rain in several weeks from late Wednesday through
 Friday, with widespread 1+ inch rains possible

The hottest day of the next week is Tuesday as a large western CONUS
upper ridge extends into TX. Undercutting this upper ridge is a broad
upper disturbance moving east along the US/Mexico border toward TX.
The combined effects of these systems brings not only a hot day but
possibly a breezy one as southerly surface winds increase ahead of
the disturbance. The winds are not expected to particularly strong
like the ones from last week's multi-day fire weather patterns, but
there could be just enough for an afternoon of locally elevated fire
weather conditions. Thankfully, this is is about it for the fire
weather issues for awhile as a near widespread rain event is expected
for Wednesday through Friday.

Initially moisture levels will be limited for daytime Wednesday, so the
initial rain chances will be mostly west of Hwy 281 to the Rio Grande
and fed mostly by elevated Pacific instability and moisture. The
moist and unstable layer becomes more rooted toward the surface by
Thursday morning, and a solid conveyor belt of low to mid level
moisture should bring many hours of good rain opportunity for much of
the area. The latest GFS still shows a scenario of multiple waves of
convection moving through the broad upper trough over TX, but the
amounts have come down to earth compared to what was seen in the 12Z
3/22 run. We still believe that there will be a larger embedded
complex that will provide the bulk of the rain as opposed to multiple
waves, but we'd love to be wrong! Assuming the more conservative
scenario, a solid swath of 1-2 inch rains should temporarily silence
the fire weather concerns for a week or two and usher in a more
definitive green-up that has eluded much our area so far this spring.

Some secondary rounds of showers and storms are depicted as late as
the wee hours Saturday morning, but a mostly dry and mild weekend is
projected. There is a quick-hitting wave of convection possible in
Central Texas Sunday afternoon according to the GFS, but the ECM and
CMC do not reflect this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

Thunderstorms are in the forecast at area terminals this evening.
Opted for more confidence at AUS with a TEMPO group while a PROB30
was utilized for lower confidence in storms reaching SAT and SSF.
MVFR ceilings now appear less likely at AUS and most likely at SAT,
SSF, and DRT. We will see a wind shift overnight, primarily between
05Z-09Z with northeasterly winds behind a frontal boundary. A shift
to more easterly and east-southeasterly is expected by midday Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              60  85  63  91 /  50   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  59  85  59  90 /  50   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     62  87  61  92 /  40   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            56  83  58  91 /  30   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           66  89  64  93 /  10  20  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        57  84  59  91 /  40   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             62  89  60  92 /  20  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        60  85  60  90 /  50   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  83  63  88 /  40  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       62  86  63  91 /  40   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           65  88  63  92 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...18
Aviation...MMM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
946 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     Hail             2 W Smithson Valley     29.82N 98.38W
03/23/2025  E0.50 Inch       Comal              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Half-inch (0.50 in.).

&&

CVP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
948 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     Hail             1 SSE Medina            29.78N 99.25W
03/23/2025  M0.50 Inch       Bandera            TX   Cocorahs

&&

CVP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
952 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Hail             6 NNE Driftwood         30.20N 97.98W
03/23/2025  E0.50 Inch       Hays               TX   Cocorahs

&&

CVP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
958 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Bergstrom Internat 30.18N 97.68W
03/23/2025  M61 MPH          Travis             TX   ASOS

            ASOS station KAUS Austin-Bergstrom Intl
            Arpt.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
959 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 SW Onion Creek        30.12N 97.80W
03/23/2025  E60 MPH          Travis             TX   NWS Employee

            50 to 60 mph estimated winds.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1000 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     Hail             Lost Maples State Natur 29.81N 99.57W
03/23/2025  M1.00 Inch       Bandera            TX   Park/Forest Srvc

            Time estimated by radar.

&&

CVP