Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
938 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

With the expansion of the level 3 of 4 risk on the evening issuance
of the excessive rainfall outlook southwestward into the San Antonio
metro area and the latest short term guidance trends, including the
Warn-on-Forecast, we have also elected to expand the Flood Watch
southwestward to include Bexar, Bandera, Medina counties and points
eastward. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts
near or in excess of 6 inches are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Adjusted the PoPs into tomorrow to match the latest observational
trends and the most recent short-term guidance. Initial activity is
now starting to develop across the Hill Country. Most of activity
this evening will concentrate in that region. A storm complex then
evolves and progresses south-southeastward from the overnight into
early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Expansive cloud cover from early morning rains has mainly shifted
east of the region early this afternoon. Some earlier showers over
the southern Edwards Plateau have moved eastward into the Hill
Country. Elsewhere, some clouds are noted, but with the cooling and
stabilization from earlier, development is slow.

As we head through the evening hours, we should see an increase in
the coverage of showers and storms across the Hill Country. While
there is some disagreement among the hi-res models, we expect the
activity over the Hill Country to move eastward into the I-35
corridor along with some additional development over the coastal
plains region. With slow-moving storms in an environment with high
precipitable water values (1.75-2.25"), locally heavy rain is a
concern from this evening into Thursday. Hi-res models tend to show
the higher amounts near and east of the I-35 corridor for areas
generally along and north of a Burnet to Austin to La Grange line.
These areas have seen some recent rains and with expected moderate to
heavy rain, a Flood Watch has been issued for Burnet, Williamson,
Travis, Lee, Bastrop and Fayette counties. The watch begins at 7 PM
this evening and runs until 7 PM Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are possible, with amounts up to 6 inches in a few spots. The
higher rain chances begin to shift eastward Thursday evening, but
will keep a good chance for showers and storms in the forecast given
a lingering upper trough axis over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

An upper level low pressure system over the eastern part of the
Southern Plains is forecasted to push into the Middle Mississippi
Valley on Friday into Saturday. The subtropical ridge builds out
west across the four corners region and northern Mexico providing
a dry weather pattern across South Central Texas for the weekend
into the middle of next week.

High temperatures are likely to be at or slightly above normal
climate values ranging from the lower to mid 90s across most areas
and up to 101 along the Rio Grande. For the overnight lows,
temperatures range from the mid to upper 70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR flight conditions begin the TAF period. Shower and thunderstorm
chances are to start to pick up later this evening at the I-35 TAF
sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) before peaking from the overnight into
early Thursday morning as a complex of thunderstorms develops and
advances east-southeastward across the area. MVFR to near IFR
ceilings and visibilities will develop as well, especially with the
heaviest/strongest thunderstorm activity. Winds could become strong
with variable directions in/near storm activity as well. Activity
wanes beyond sunrise but some lingering showers will be possible
through at least the morning hours. VFR conditions return from the
morning into Thursday afternoon. KDRT remains VFR throughout the
period with shower/storm activity holding east of the site.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  88  75  93 /  80  50  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  88  75  92 /  80  50  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  89  75  93 /  80  60  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            68  86  72  91 /  70  30  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  96  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  86  74  91 /  80  40  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             70  91  74  94 /  60  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  89  75  93 /  80  50  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  86  75  91 /  80  80  30  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  90  76  93 /  80  40  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           73  92  77  95 /  80  50  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-
Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales-
Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Brady

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
803 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ172-120130-
Burnet TX-
803 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Burnet
County through 830 PM CDT...

At 803 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Briggs, or 11 miles northeast of Bertram, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Joppa, Mahomet, Watson, and Briggs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9790 3095 9785 3091 9783 3090 9783
      3080 9794 3081 9806 3103 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 184DEG 19KT 3088 9795

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Runyen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
820 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ171-188-120200-
Gillespie TX-Llano TX-
820 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Gillespie and southwestern Llano Counties through 900 PM CDT...

At 820 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Loyal Valley to near Prairie Mountain to 8
miles south of Cherry Spring. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eckert, Prairie Mountain, Crabapple, Willow City, Oxford, and
Enchanted Rock State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 9866 3039 9870 3035 9904 3047 9900
      3049 9898 3050 9896 3064 9896 3070 9877
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 256DEG 12KT 3058 9899 3050 9892 3037 9897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Runyen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1010 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ190-120345-
Blanco TX-
1010 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Blanco
County through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1010 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Johnson City, or 10 miles north of Blanco, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Round Mountain, Johnson City, Pedernales Falls State Park, and
Cypress Mill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 9821 3041 9814 3035 9818 3031 9819
      3016 9840 3026 9851 3050 9839
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 228DEG 21KT 3025 9838

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1050 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

TXZ189>191-206-120445-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Hays TX-Kendall TX-
1050 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Hays,
southern Blanco, northeastern Kendall and northwestern Comal Counties
through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1050 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Blanco to near Bergheim. Movement was east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dripping Springs, Blanco, Canyon Lake, Guadalupe River State Park,
Kendalia, Spring Branch, Twin Sisters, Fischer, Henly, Payton, Mount
Gainor, and Honey Creek State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3027 9805 2988 9825 2984 9864 3018 9846
      3028 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 248DEG 20KT 3014 9843 2988 9856

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MO