River Flood Warning 8, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key messages:

- Flood Watch continues through the day today.

- Locally heavy rain likely along and east of Hwy 281.

An upper level trough is moving across TX tonight, and there is a
stationary front stretched over Central TX. A line of thunderstorms
is moving across the I-35 Corridor, and there are isolated cells
ahead of the line in the Coastal Plains. This convection will
continue into the start of the new forecast period. Storm movement is
slow, and they are producing high rainfall rates. Excessive rainfall
is possible. We will continue the Flood Watch over the eastern half
of the area through the day today. Additional rainfall of one to
three inches with isolated higher amounts will be possible. Showers
and storms will move away from the area tonight as the upper trough
moves off to the northeast. The low level flow will remain from the
south to southeast keeping the airmass warm and moist. A weak
shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow aloft may provide enough
lift to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms during the day
Friday. Conditions do not look favorable for strong storms or heavy
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Key messages:

- Drier weather returns.

An upper level ridge will build into West TX Friday night keeping
the weather dry over our western area. This will keep northwesterly
flow aloft over the eastern part of the CWA. The low level flow will
continue warm and moist. With daytime heating there will be low
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Saturday through
Monday over the eastern half of the area. Tuesday the upper ridge
should build far enough east to dry out the entire CWA. Then
Wednesday it will retreat back to the west allowing low rain chances
over the east again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Few changes from the previous forecast other than to remove mention
of thunder in the TAFS. Expect a return to MVFR ceilings tonight
after midnight. Winds increase somewhat on Friday, around 10 kts out
of the south to southeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  93  76  94 /  10  30   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  92  76  94 /  10  30  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  75  94 /  10  30   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            70  92  74  92 /   0  20   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 101  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  92  75  92 /   0  30   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             71  94  75  95 /   0  20   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  93  75  94 /  10  30  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  89  75  92 /  20  40   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  94  76  94 /  10  20   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  77  96 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-
Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-
Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...MMM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Windcrest         29.51N 98.41W
06/12/2025                   Bexar              TX   Emergency Mngr

            *** 4 FATAL ***
            Training of thunderstorms with intense
            rainfall rates occurred across the region. A
            swath of 3-8 inches of rain was measured.
            Several vehicles were swept off the Loop 410
            access road into Beitel Creek. There are
            four confirmed fatalities in this creek and
            at least two other missing. Several other
            vehicles remain submerged at the time of
            this writing. Ten people were rescued in
            this creek and two others were able to get
            to safety on their own.

&&

JR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
238 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Windcrest         29.51N 98.41W
06/12/2025                   Bexar              TX   Emergency Mngr

            *** 4 FATAL ***
            Training of thunderstorms with intense
            rainfall rates occurred across the region. A
            swath of 3-8 inches of rain was measured.
            Several vehicles were swept off the Loop 410
            access road with a total of 13 vehicles
            ending up in Beitel Creek. There are four
            confirmed fatalities in this creek and at
            least two other missing. Ten people were
            rescued in this creek and two others were
            able to get to safety on their own.

&&

JR