Flash Flood Warning 103, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

316 
WGUS74 KEWX 071544
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1044 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

TXC463-507-071715-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0103.000000T0000Z-250907T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Uvalde TX-Zavala TX-
1044 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UVALDE AND NORTHEASTERN ZAVALA 
COUNTIES...

At 1044 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 4 inches of rain 
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1.5 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Uvalde, La Pryor, Batesville, Washer, Uvalde Estates and Farm to 
  Market Road 117.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 2920 9963 2890 9956 2893 9983 2907 9991
      2920 9991

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

PLATT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
903 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.UPDATE...
Moderate to heavy rain continues to affect parts of the Rio
Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country as of 9 AM
CDT this morning. This activity is forecast to continue through
the rest of the morning period and we have updated the next 3
hours of the forecast to reflect higher probabilities (80 and 90
percent) mainly across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio
Grande. Rain rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour and up to 5 inches
are possible. With that said, additional rainfall of 1 to 3
inches per hour are possible with up to 5 inches within the next
3 hours or so if storms slowly move over same areas.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rain is possible across South Central Texas
  today. Localized flooding is possible.

- Dry weather returns late Monday and continues through the work
  week with cooler mornings and warmer afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
Post-frontal air, evaporative cooling, and loss of daytime heating
have stabilized the atmosphere over most of South-Central Texas with
the front now south of our region. However, easterly to
southeasterly 925-850mb low-level flow atop the frontal surface is
expected to push moisture across the Winter Garden region and
northward along the Rio Grande into the southern Edwards Plateau.
This moist isentropic lift is forecast to lead to another round of
scattered showers and storms across South-Central Texas,
beginning pre-dawn early Sunday morning and continuing through
the day. The morning activity is expected start over the Rio
Grande to western Hill Country near the main moisture transport
axis before opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and
storms spread throughout the rest of South-Central Texas with
the aid of modest daytime heating in the afternoon.

Precipitable water values should hover in the 1.7 to 2.2 inch range
today (with western portions of our CWA above the 90th percentile
for this time of year), so locally heavy downpours are possible. The
Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight a Level 1 of 4 risk
for excessive rainfall capable of causing localized flash flooding
for most of South-Central Texas south of US 290. Water vapor imagery
and model data indicate a lack of distinct shortwaves embedded in
the westerly flow aloft, so timing and placement of storms will be
heavily impacted by individual outflow boundaries. Chances for
heavier rains and better storm coverage are higher across the Rio
Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau/western Hill Country with
the better moisture transport. Atmospheric conditions look similar
to yesterday, so rainfall amounts could be similar with localized
pockets of 2 to 4 inches of rain embedded within broader totals up
to about a half inch. Later today, increasingly northerly mid-level
flow should start to bring drier air form the north, pushing the
moist airmass out of our area tonight and bringing rain chances down
north to south. Near-surface southerly winds will allow moisture to
hang around a little longer over the southern Edwards Plateau and
Rio Grande Plains, so isolated shower and storm chances (20 to 40
percent chance) look to linger Sunday night through Monday for those
areas.

Like Saturday, temperatures today will be influenced by the rain,
but in general the post-frontal air will help keep temperatures
below average. Highs should generally be in the 80s across South-
Central Texas, though the spread of rain cooled air could keep some
areas in the 70s for most of the daytime. Lows Monday morning range
from the 60s north of Highway 90 to the low 70s to the south, and
slightly drier conditions Monday should pave the way for slightly
higher highs in the upper 80s and to low 90s that afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
After the busier weather this weekend, the week ahead should be a
quiet one. A mid-level ridge builds across Texas and then stays put
for the rest of the week. That sets the stage for dry conditions
throughout the depth of the atmosphere, so expect wide temperature
ranges each day. Daytime highs will gradually work their way up into
the mid to upper 90s by midweek, while the midweek mornings
will be a better pastiche of fall weather with lows in the low
to mid 60s across Central Texas and upper 60s to around 70s
farther south. As the ridge axis spins around, those lows
moderate slightly as some Gulf moisture seeps in, but otherwise
we have mid-60s to low 70s for morning lows continuing through
the upcoming weekend.

Aside from the low chance of the occasional isolated afternoon
seabreeze shower over the Coastal Plains and Winter Garden region
later in the week, dry and rain-free conditions are forecast across
South-Central Texas through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (14Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop this morning into the early
afternoon hours and have maintained PROB30s for all sites. Will
monitor for possible prevailing or TEMPOs. Areas of MVFR CIGs
will lift to VFR by midday and prevail this afternoon through
Monday morning. E to SE winds prevail out west at KDRT with N
to NE elsewhere. Speeds of less than 10 KTs can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  91  66  94 /  10  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  91  64  94 /  10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  92  66  94 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            66  87  64  90 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  90  72  92 /  30  40   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  89  62  91 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             70  90  68  93 /  20  20   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  93  64  95 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  90  64  92 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  91  69  94 /  20  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  92  71  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...Platt