Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

950 
WGUS74 KEWX 071438
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
938 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

TXC019-137-271-325-385-463-071448-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-250907T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bandera TX-Edwards TX-Kinney TX-Medina TX-Real TX-Uvalde TX-
938 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BANDERA, CENTRAL EDWARDS, 
NORTHEASTERN KINNEY, NORTHWESTERN MEDINA, REAL AND NORTHERN UVALDE 
COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 3021 10030 3026 10013 3028 9999 3027 9987
      3020 9980 3007 9976 3004 9969 2991 9969
      2982 9941 2973 9933 2953 9924 2942 9923
      2934 9951 2934 10001 2947 10017 2964 10028
      2996 10040 3017 10036

$$

PLATT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
552 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rain is possible across South Central Texas
  today. Localized flooding is possible.

- Dry weather returns late Monday and continues through the work
  week with cooler mornings and warmer afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)...
Post-frontal air, evaporative cooling, and loss of daytime heating
have stabilized the atmosphere over most of South-Central Texas with
the front now south of our region. However, easterly to
southeasterly 925-850mb low-level flow atop the frontal surface is
expected to push moisture across the Winter Garden region and
northward along the Rio Grande into the southern Edwards Plateau.
This moist isentropic lift is forecast to lead to another round of
scattered showers and storms across South-Central Texas,
beginning pre-dawn early Sunday morning and continuing through
the day. The morning activity is expected start over the Rio
Grande to western Hill Country near the main moisture transport
axis before opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and
storms spread throughout the rest of South-Central Texas with
the aid of modest daytime heating in the afternoon.

Precipitable water values should hover in the 1.7 to 2.2 inch range
today (with western portions of our CWA above the 90th percentile
for this time of year), so locally heavy downpours are possible. The
Weather Prediction Center continues to highlight a Level 1 of 4 risk
for excessive rainfall capable of causing localized flash flooding
for most of South-Central Texas south of US 290. Water vapor imagery
and model data indicate a lack of distinct shortwaves embedded in
the westerly flow aloft, so timing and placement of storms will be
heavily impacted by individual outflow boundaries. Chances for
heavier rains and better storm coverage are higher across the Rio
Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau/western Hill Country with
the better moisture transport. Atmospheric conditions look similar
to yesterday, so rainfall amounts could be similar with localized
pockets of 2 to 4 inches of rain embedded within broader totals up
to about a half inch. Later today, increasingly northerly mid-level
flow should start to bring drier air form the north, pushing the
moist airmass out of our area tonight and bringing rain chances down
north to south. Near-surface southerly winds will allow moisture to
hang around a little longer over the southern Edwards Plateau and
Rio Grande Plains, so isolated shower and storm chances (20 to 40
percent chance) look to linger Sunday night through Monday for those
areas.

Like Saturday, temperatures today will be influenced by the rain,
but in general the post-frontal air will help keep temperatures
below average. Highs should generally be in the 80s across South-
Central Texas, though the spread of rain cooled air could keep some
areas in the 70s for most of the daytime. Lows Monday morning range
from the 60s north of Highway 90 to the low 70s to the south, and
slightly drier conditions Monday should pave the way for slightly
higher highs in the upper 80s and to low 90s that afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
After the busier weather this weekend, the week ahead should be a
quiet one. A mid-level ridge builds across Texas and then stays put
for the rest of the week. That sets the stage for dry conditions
throughout the depth of the atmosphere, so expect wide temperature
ranges each day. Daytime highs will gradually work their way up into
the mid to upper 90s by midweek, while the midweek mornings
will be a better pastiche of fall weather with lows in the low
to mid 60s across Central Texas and upper 60s to around 70s
farther south. As the ridge axis spins around, those lows
moderate slightly as some Gulf moisture seeps in, but otherwise
we have mid-60s to low 70s for morning lows continuing through
the upcoming weekend.

Aside from the low chance of the occasional isolated afternoon
seabreeze shower over the Coastal Plains and Winter Garden region
later in the week, dry and rain-free conditions are forecast across
South-Central Texas through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SHRA/TSRA will continue to develop this morning into the early
afternoon hours and have maintained PROB30s for all sites. Will
monitor for possible prevailing or TEMPOs. Areas of MVFR CIGs
will lift to VFR by midday and prevail this afternoon through
Monday morning. E to SE winds prevail out west at KDRT with N
to NE elsewhere. Speeds of less than 10 KTs can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  91  66  94 /  10  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  91  64  94 /  10  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  92  66  94 /  20  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            66  87  64  90 /  10  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  90  72  92 /  30  40   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  89  62  91 /  10  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             70  90  68  93 /  20  20   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  93  64  95 /  10  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   69  90  64  92 /  10  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  91  69  94 /  20  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  92  71  95 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM...Tran
AVIATION...04