Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected for the remainder of the overnight
  into mid morning Wednesday. Damaging winds, large hail, and
  heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes will be the main risks.

- Gusty winds around 30-40 mph are expected to continue through
  this afternoon. Isolated gusts above 45 mph are possible.

- The pattern remains active with daily chances for rain through
  Sunday. Colder air will begin to filter into the region over
  the weekend with a rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into
  Sunday morning.

- Frost and freeze potential Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a large upper trough covering much
of the western CONUS and broad southwesterly flow over the
plains into the Mississippi valley. A jet streak was rounding
the base of the trough over the southern plains with diffluent
flow across the CWA. Lower in the atmosphere, a very strong low
level jet out of the southwest with 50-70 kts. Regional and
local radar show a couple waves of strong-severe convection. The
first area of strong to severe convection was quickly lifting
northeast and out of the CWA. The second round was more linear,
but with some embedded supercell structures. Most of this was
current over the TOP CWA but shifting east northeast into
northwestern portions of our CWA. Shear and thermal profiles
will be sufficient to maintain the severe weather risk through
the remainder of the night through Wednesday mid morning as the
surface low lifts northeast and front pushes east through the
area. Strong 0-3km shear vectors from the southwest would favor
mesovorts developing along any bowing segments as this
convection moves through, so all modes of severe weather will be
possible this morning. A tornado watch has been issued to
account for these risks through 10 am.  In addition to the
severe risk, any training of storms from southwest to northeast
could produce some localized excessive rainfall and flooding.
Gusty winds are also expected today across the area with some
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible.

With the upper flow remaining out of the southwest several
rounds of convection will remain possible into the weekend as
waves of energy lift northeast into the forecast area. The best
moisture axis will shift southeast of the area after today's
convection, but does lift back northward on Friday which will
bring additional high pops (70-100%) by Friday afternoon.

As we begin to head later into the weekend, the main upper
trough will finally begin to swing through the area and the
precipitation chances will come to an end, but not before some
cooler air begins to filter into the region offering a rain/snow
mix potential for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

There will be a frost/freeze potential as we head into Sunday
night and Monday night as temperatures dip to freezing and
slightly below both nights. The cooler air should be fairly
short lived however as temperatures warm back into the 60s and
70s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For the 12z TAFS, heaviest convection is almost through the
terminal locations and should be by 12-13z and should improve
flight conditions to VFR once it is through. Winds will become
the primary aviation hazard after 13z with some gusts over 30
kts out of the southwest for much of the day. Gusts should
diminish after 01-02z and become light after 07z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
406 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-030915-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
406 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms with the potential for large hail, damaging wind and
tornadoes will be possible through the mid morning. A tornado watch
is in effect for most of the area until 10 am.

Gusty winds are expected today with some gusts of 30 to 40 mph
possible through the afternoon.

Heavy rain will be possible with the thunderstorms and if any
training of storms occurs, a localized flooding risk will be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Several rounds of thunderstorms will be possible into the weekend.
Most of the stronger to severe storms will be south of the area.

Cooler temperatures are expected late in the weekend into early next
week which may lead to a frost or freeze Sunday night and Monday
night.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
552 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Oaks               39.18N 94.54W
04/02/2025                   Clay               MO   Utility Company

            Downed tree limbs and wires near 47th
            Terrace. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
557 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Oaks               39.18N 94.55W
04/02/2025                   Clay               MO   Utility Company

            Downed tree limbs and wires near Dean Lane.
            Time estimated from dispatch reports and
            radar.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
605 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Maywood            39.11N 94.78W
04/02/2025                   Wyandotte          KS   Broadcast Media

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 2
            SE Maywood. Semi truck blown over on I70 and
            86th reported via media and seen on web
            cameras.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
612 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Leawood           38.98N 94.61W
04/02/2025                   Johnson            KS   Utility Company

            Downed wires near 83rd Street. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

CMS