Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are expected for the remainder of the overnight
  into mid morning Wednesday. Damaging winds, large hail, and
  heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes will be the main risks.

- Gusty winds around 30-40 mph are expected to continue through
  this afternoon. Isolated gusts above 45 mph are possible.

- The pattern remains active with daily chances for rain through
  Sunday. Colder air will begin to filter into the region over
  the weekend with a rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into
  Sunday morning.

- Frost and freeze potential Sunday night and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a large upper trough covering much
of the western CONUS and broad southwesterly flow over the
plains into the Mississippi valley. A jet streak was rounding
the base of the trough over the southern plains with diffluent
flow across the CWA. Lower in the atmosphere, a very strong low
level jet out of the southwest with 50-70 kts. Regional and
local radar show a couple waves of strong-severe convection. The
first area of strong to severe convection was quickly lifting
northeast and out of the CWA. The second round was more linear,
but with some embedded supercell structures. Most of this was
current over the TOP CWA but shifting east northeast into
northwestern portions of our CWA. Shear and thermal profiles
will be sufficient to maintain the severe weather risk through
the remainder of the night through Wednesday mid morning as the
surface low lifts northeast and front pushes east through the
area. Strong 0-3km shear vectors from the southwest would favor
mesovorts developing along any bowing segments as this
convection moves through, so all modes of severe weather will be
possible this morning. A tornado watch has been issued to
account for these risks through 10 am.  In addition to the
severe risk, any training of storms from southwest to northeast
could produce some localized excessive rainfall and flooding.
Gusty winds are also expected today across the area with some
gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible.

With the upper flow remaining out of the southwest several
rounds of convection will remain possible into the weekend as
waves of energy lift northeast into the forecast area. The best
moisture axis will shift southeast of the area after today's
convection, but does lift back northward on Friday which will
bring additional high pops (70-100%) by Friday afternoon.

As we begin to head later into the weekend, the main upper
trough will finally begin to swing through the area and the
precipitation chances will come to an end, but not before some
cooler air begins to filter into the region offering a rain/snow
mix potential for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

There will be a frost/freeze potential as we head into Sunday
night and Monday night as temperatures dip to freezing and
slightly below both nights. The cooler air should be fairly
short lived however as temperatures warm back into the 60s and
70s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For the 06z TAFS, first wave of convection was currently lifting
out of the terminal locations, although may see some lingering
convection in the STJ vicinity at the onset of the TAFS. Second
wave of convection will start to move through the area between
08z further north and 11 to 13z for the southern terminals.
Strong convection and MVFR/IFR conditions expected with the
thunderstorms along with variable wind gusts of 30 to 40 kts.
Behind the 2nd wave of convection, VFR conditions are expected
by mid morning, but will remain quite gusty out of the southwest
with some late morning through afternoon gusts up to 35 kts
possible. Winds should diminish by 01-02z this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WFO EAX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
453 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
453 AM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe storms are expected tonight into tomorrow morning. Damaging
 winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall are the most likely hazards.
 A low tornado risk also exists.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
135 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     King City               40.04N 94.53W
04/02/2025                   Gentry             MO   Utility Company

            Downed wires near Locust Street. Time
            estimated from radar and dispatch reports.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
215 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

MOZ007-008-017-020745-
Schuyler MO-Putnam MO-Adair MO-
215 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ADAIR...EASTERN
PUTNAM AND SCHUYLER COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM CDT...

At 214 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles west of Queen City to 9 miles northeast
of Greencastle to near Novinger. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Downing, Greentop, Queen City, Glenwood, Lancaster, Worthington, and
Livonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4039 9235 4021 9280 4035 9286 4058 9284
      4059 9282 4060 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 219DEG 51KT 4041 9272 4035 9275 4029 9277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
239 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Saint Joseph      39.79N 94.86W
04/02/2025                   Buchanan           MO   Utility Company

            Downed tree limbs and wires near Hamburg
            Avenue. Time estimated from radar.

&&

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