Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several chances for scattered to widespread storms this
  afternoon into the night. Strong to damaging winds and heavy
  rainfall will be the main threats.

- Hotter, more humid conditions anticipated today mainly for
  areas along and south of I-70. Triple digit heat indices are
  possible. This is dependent on how storms and features develop
  through the afternoon.

- Confidence growing in widespread triple digit heat indices
  this weekend into the first half of next week. Heat indices up
  to 110 F possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A cold front, extending out of a surface low over the MN/IA/WI
border (as of 19Z), stretches across southern IA, in between HWY-36
and just north of the KC Metro. This afternoon, a few thunderstorms
will be possible with the cold front continuing to push south into
our area. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with CAPE
values exceeding 3,000 J/kg aiding in storm formation. Bulk shear
values are slightly better than they have been ranging from 25-30
kts. Even though this is not ideal for severe storms, this may be
just enough for them to hold together long enough to produce
isolated severe conditions. Inverted-v soundings, dry air aloft,
DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg suggest the potential for strong
to damaging winds.

However, there is still some uncertainty as CAMs diverge on
solutions. The NAMNST shows widespread convection developing along
and south of the I-70 corridor including the KC Metro. The HRRR
keeps the convection fairly isolated mostly along and south of I-70.
So, Hi-Res models suggest that we could see isolated to widespread
convection south of HWY-36. Models seem to agree the front stalls
out somewhere south of HWY-36 near I-70. The coverage of storms will
depend on how much the environment is able to recover given this
morning's convection. The current satellite shot (as of 19Z) shows
that extensive cloud coverage has dissipated and cu fields have
developed in the southern half of MO.

Another round of storms is possible late this evening into early
Thursday as the lagging elevated fronts near the 925MB-850MB layer
continues to push farther south. Strong to severe storms will once
again be possible. Storms are anticipated to be elevated as a
diurnal cap develops across area. Good instability (1,000-2,000 J/kg
of CAPE) will help with strengthening updrafts and 20-30 kts of
shear may help storms to organize. Strong to damaging winds and
heavy rainfall (PWATs around 2 inches) will be the main concerns.
But again, high uncertainty still remains. The severe potential late
this evening will be dependent on whether or not the atmosphere will
be able to recover from this afternoon's convection (if it is
realized). If there is robust afternoon convection, strong to
damaging winds will be the main concern with heavy rain being the
secondary threat. If there is not robust afternoon convection, then
the main threat will be heavy rainfall with strong to damaging winds
being the secondary threat. The severe threat is anticipated to
diminish the deeper into the night go. However, areas that have
already received multiple rounds of rain (mainly northern MO) could
see isolated flooding especially if storms begin to train. For now,
MBE vectors just after midnight keep storms somewhat progressive,
but uncertainty is still high.

Thursday afternoon, there will be a chance for some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with remnant surface boundaries as well as a
H500 shortwave moving through the flow. For our area, severe chances
appear to be very low due to weak forcing and a fairly stable
environment. Slightly more favorable conditions for severe weather
will remain in southern MO. As far as temperatures for tomorrow,
highs are anticipated to range in the mid to upper 70s mainly north
of I-70 and low to mid 80s south of I-70. The difference will be
mostly felt in the decrease in dew point temperature with most areas
remaining below 70 F. Some areas south of the KC Metro may reach the
low 70s.

Mid to upper level ridging residing over the western U.S. tracks
towards the east as we go into the weekend. A surface high also
pushes over the eastern U.S. shifting winds to the south. This will
result in the start of a warming trend this Friday into early next
week. As heat indices climb to 100-110 F, heat headlines may be
necessary. Confidence continues to grow as guidance remains
consistent with each model run. A few weak shortwaves bringing
spotty chances for rain may help to cool temperatures a few degrees,
but high uncertainty exists in timing and location with these
features.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Front is in the KC metro early this evening, and isolated to
scattered storms have developed along it, currently affecting
MCI. Brief downpours, erratic gusts, and temporary restrictions
may occur with a storm directly impacting the terminal. This
risk should abate near/after sunset temporarily, but even better
chances for storms occur after 05z. Have included TSRA mention
at the KC terminals generally from 06z to 10z, with transition
to mainly showers through 12z before precipitation moves off to
the southeast and/or dissipates. Winds will become north to
northeast this evening 5 to 10 kt as the front sags to the
south. Lower ceilings will move in during/after the storms
overnight, with MVFR conditions expected for much of Thursday
morning, potentially lingering for a time into the afternoon.
Not out of the question IFR ceilings occur for a time between
11z and 16z (up to 35 percent chance). Some improvement is
expected during the afternoon, but confidence is low on precise
timing. Winds will continue from the northeast around 10 kt
during the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0506 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-171006-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0506 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Decaying convective system this morning will bring scattered
  to widespread storms to the area before sunrise. A few wind
  gusts to 50 mph are possible.

* Outflow from that convective may foster new development this
  afternoon. Adds a large amount uncertainty to the forecast though.

* Better chances for storms after sunset. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible with strong winds and locally heavy rain
  the main hazards.

* High heat returns this weekend into next week. Increasing
  potential for heat index values near 110 next week.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MOZ023-025-031>033-039-040-170415-
Carroll MO-Macon MO-Saline MO-Chariton MO-Randolph MO-Livingston MO-
Howard MO-
1048 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...A CONGEALED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL IMPACT CHARITON...WESTERN
RANDOLPH... CENTRAL CARROLL...HOWARD...SALINE...SOUTHWESTERN MACON
AND SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM CDT...

At 1048 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking congealing thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Hale to 9 miles southwest of
Brunswick to near Glasgow. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Fayette, Slater, Salisbury, Glasgow, Brunswick,
Keytesville, Hale, Bosworth, Armstrong, Malta Bend, Wakenda, Gilliam,
Miami, Mendon, Tina, De Witt, Clifton Hill, Sumner, and Rothville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 9260 3904 9293 3906 9294 3904 9296
      3905 9348 3970 9347 3970 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 252DEG 30KT 3958 9342 3933 9325 3924 9287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MOZ038-039-044-045-170445-
Johnson MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-Pettis MO-
1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN PETTIS...SOUTHWESTERN
SALINE...SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH
1145 PM CDT...

At 1107 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Houstonia to Knob Noster
to near Warrensburg. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Warrensburg, Knob Noster, Concordia, Sweet Springs, Whiteman
Air Force Base, La Monte, Houstonia, Whiteman Afb, Centerview, Emma,
Hughesville, and Fayetteville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 76 and
85.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9308 3867 9337 3863 9376 3877 9394
      3897 9370 3897 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0407Z 301DEG 12KT 3882 9324 3878 9358 3872 9381

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Krull

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1110 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Clare             38.83N 94.89W
07/16/2025  M76 MPH          Johnson            KS   ASOS

&&

AK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1111 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 WNW Clare             38.83N 94.89W
07/16/2025  M76 MPH          Johnson            KS   ASOS

&&

AK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1133 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Whiteman Air Force Base 38.73N 93.55W
07/16/2025  E51 MPH          Johnson            MO   AWOS

&&

AK