Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
654 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several chances for scattered to widespread storms this
  afternoon into the night. Strong to damaging winds and heavy
  rainfall will be the main threats.

- Hotter, more humid conditions anticipated today mainly for
  areas along and south of I-70. Triple digit heat indices are
  possible. This is dependent on how storms and features develop
  through the afternoon.

- Confidence growing in widespread triple digit heat indices
  this weekend into the first half of next week. Heat indices up
  to 110 F possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A cold front, extending out of a surface low over the MN/IA/WI
border (as of 19Z), stretches across southern IA, in between HWY-36
and just north of the KC Metro. This afternoon, a few thunderstorms
will be possible with the cold front continuing to push south into
our area. A few strong to severe storms will be possible with CAPE
values exceeding 3,000 J/kg aiding in storm formation. Bulk shear
values are slightly better than they have been ranging from 25-30
kts. Even though this is not ideal for severe storms, this may be
just enough for them to hold together long enough to produce
isolated severe conditions. Inverted-v soundings, dry air aloft,
DCAPE values exceeding 1,000 J/kg suggest the potential for strong
to damaging winds.

However, there is still some uncertainty as CAMs diverge on
solutions. The NAMNST shows widespread convection developing along
and south of the I-70 corridor including the KC Metro. The HRRR
keeps the convection fairly isolated mostly along and south of I-70.
So, Hi-Res models suggest that we could see isolated to widespread
convection south of HWY-36. Models seem to agree the front stalls
out somewhere south of HWY-36 near I-70. The coverage of storms will
depend on how much the environment is able to recover given this
morning's convection. The current satellite shot (as of 19Z) shows
that extensive cloud coverage has dissipated and cu fields have
developed in the southern half of MO.

Another round of storms is possible late this evening into early
Thursday as the lagging elevated fronts near the 925MB-850MB layer
continues to push farther south. Strong to severe storms will once
again be possible. Storms are anticipated to be elevated as a
diurnal cap develops across area. Good instability (1,000-2,000 J/kg
of CAPE) will help with strengthening updrafts and 20-30 kts of
shear may help storms to organize. Strong to damaging winds and
heavy rainfall (PWATs around 2 inches) will be the main concerns.
But again, high uncertainty still remains. The severe potential late
this evening will be dependent on whether or not the atmosphere will
be able to recover from this afternoon's convection (if it is
realized). If there is robust afternoon convection, strong to
damaging winds will be the main concern with heavy rain being the
secondary threat. If there is not robust afternoon convection, then
the main threat will be heavy rainfall with strong to damaging winds
being the secondary threat. The severe threat is anticipated to
diminish the deeper into the night go. However, areas that have
already received multiple rounds of rain (mainly northern MO) could
see isolated flooding especially if storms begin to train. For now,
MBE vectors just after midnight keep storms somewhat progressive,
but uncertainty is still high.

Thursday afternoon, there will be a chance for some isolated to
scattered thunderstorms with remnant surface boundaries as well as a
H500 shortwave moving through the flow. For our area, severe chances
appear to be very low due to weak forcing and a fairly stable
environment. Slightly more favorable conditions for severe weather
will remain in southern MO. As far as temperatures for tomorrow,
highs are anticipated to range in the mid to upper 70s mainly north
of I-70 and low to mid 80s south of I-70. The difference will be
mostly felt in the decrease in dew point temperature with most areas
remaining below 70 F. Some areas south of the KC Metro may reach the
low 70s.

Mid to upper level ridging residing over the western U.S. tracks
towards the east as we go into the weekend. A surface high also
pushes over the eastern U.S. shifting winds to the south. This will
result in the start of a warming trend this Friday into early next
week. As heat indices climb to 100-110 F, heat headlines may be
necessary. Confidence continues to grow as guidance remains
consistent with each model run. A few weak shortwaves bringing
spotty chances for rain may help to cool temperatures a few degrees,
but high uncertainty exists in timing and location with these
features.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Front is in the KC metro early this evening, and isolated to
scattered storms have developed along it, currently affecting
MCI. Brief downpours, erratic gusts, and temporary restrictions
may occur with a storm directly impacting the terminal. This
risk should abate near/after sunset temporarily, but even better
chances for storms occur after 05z. Have included TSRA mention
at the KC terminals generally from 06z to 10z, with transition
to mainly showers through 12z before precipitation moves off to
the southeast and/or dissipates. Winds will become north to
northeast this evening 5 to 10 kt as the front sags to the
south. Lower ceilings will move in during/after the storms
overnight, with MVFR conditions expected for much of Thursday
morning, potentially lingering for a time into the afternoon.
Not out of the question IFR ceilings occur for a time between
11z and 16z (up to 35 percent chance). Some improvement is
expected during the afternoon, but confidence is low on precise
timing. Winds will continue from the northeast around 10 kt
during the day.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...CMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0506 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-171006-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0506 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Decaying convective system this morning will bring scattered
  to widespread storms to the area before sunrise. A few wind
  gusts to 50 mph are possible.

* Outflow from that convective may foster new development this
  afternoon. Adds a large amount uncertainty to the forecast though.

* Better chances for storms after sunset. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible with strong winds and locally heavy rain
  the main hazards.

* High heat returns this weekend into next week. Increasing
  potential for heat index values near 110 next week.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
940 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

KSZ103>105-MOZ028-029-037-170315-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-Platte MO-Jackson MO-Clay MO-
940 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WYANDOTTE...SOUTHWESTERN
LEAVENWORTH...JOHNSON...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE AND
WESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 940 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Westwood Hills to Leawood to near Eudora.
Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, Independence, Shawnee, Lenexa,
Leawood, Raytown, Liberty, Gladstone, Grandview, Prairie Village,
Gardner, Merriam, Mission, Bonner Springs, De Soto, Parkville,
Edwardsville, and North Kansas City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 11.
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 410 and 423.
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 0 and 18.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 215 and 235.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 0 and 10.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 12.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 13, between mile markers
20 and 21, and between mile markers 47 and 83.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 225 and 226.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 178 and 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3912 9482 3927 9473 3928 9432 3886 9451
      3884 9501 3886 9506 3899 9507 3898 9509
      3896 9508 3897 9511 3897 9513 3898 9516
      3896 9517 3897 9519 3898 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 294DEG 7KT 3904 9458 3890 9461 3889 9502

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
943 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MOZ004-005-013-014-020>022-028>030-170315-
Platte MO-Buchanan MO-Ray MO-Clinton MO-Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-
Gentry MO-Harrison MO-Caldwell MO-Clay MO-
943 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...WESTERN
DAVIESS...CLAY...CLINTON...SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY...NORTHWESTERN RAY...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...CALDWELL...NORTHEASTERN PLATTE AND DEKALB
COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 943 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles east of King City to Kingston to near
Lawson. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Liberty, Excelsior Springs, Cameron, Smithville, Kearney, Platte
City, Lawson, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Hamilton, Gallatin, Gower,
Maysville, Kansas City Intl Arpt, King City, Stewartsville, Trimble,
Polo, Edgerton, and Camden Point.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 19 and 79.
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 11 and 22.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 26 and 46.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 9379 3928 9405 3927 9485 3929 9490
      3961 9461 4001 9460 4019 9415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 248DEG 24KT 4003 9436 3966 9403 3948 9427

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MOZ044-045-054-170330-
Johnson MO-Pettis MO-Henry MO-
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...A GUST FRONT WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HENRY...PETTIS AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking gust front with little to
no rain along a line extending from near La Monte to 8 miles north
of Cole Camp to 7 miles northeast of Versailles. Movement was south
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Windsor, Knob Noster, Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte,
Smithton, Green Ridge, and Whiteman Afb.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 9374 3894 9349 3894 9346 3869 9320
      3869 9306 3853 9307 3854 9328 3851 9330
      3851 9351 3842 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 003DEG 19KT 3883 9340 3858 9321 3853 9277

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1003 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MOZ043-044-054-170330-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Henry MO-
1003 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...A GUST FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN
CASS...NORTHWESTERN HENRY AND CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTIES THROUGH 1030
PM CDT...

At 1002 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gust front along a line
extending from 7 miles north of Knob Noster to near Holden to near
Harrisonville. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Harrisonville, Knob Noster, Holden, Garden City, Archie,
Creighton, Chilhowee, East Lynne, Centerview, Gunn City, Blairstown,
La Tour, and Quick City.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 148 and 157.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 9433 3859 9444 3876 9396 3894 9362
      3893 9350 3882 9350 3858 9377 3844 9420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 311DEG 14KT 3887 9361 3872 9390 3858 9435

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Krull