River Flood Warning 50, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Flood threat continues for portions of Macon, Linn and Randolph
  counties early this morning. Storms capable of 1-2"/hr rates could
  lead to flash flooding.

* Heat builds back into the region today and is expected to
  continue into Thursday. Excessive heat warning is in effect
  through Thursday south of highway 36, with a heat advisory
  today for northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri. Increasing
  confidence in the need for head headlines regionwide at least
  Tuesday- Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Another messy low confidence forecast this morning. Accas developed
mainly along and north of I-70 overnight. Had storm development as
far west as STJ, but were unable to sustain themselves for any
period of time west if I-35. CAMs are currently not handling the
current situation well, but appears storm development has primarily
focused along the highway 36 corridor potentially along a weak
boundary. Convection along the potential boundary may shift south
towards the I-70 corridor this morning, before lifting back to the
north as upper ridge strengthens today. RAP keeps convection going
through the morning hours today going across northern Missouri,
while the HRRR and RRFS dry out shortly after sunrise. Unlike
yesterday, don't see any features that would help aid in convective
development to the west. Atmosphere appears to be fairly weakly
capped, and NAMNEST and HRRR suggest at least the potential for an
isolated storm through at least the afternoon hours; however, the
overall expectation is that thunderstorm threat will gradually shift
north through the day as upper level ridge across the southeastern
US strengthens with heat and capping inversion building north. Clouds
and any potential storms would certainly hamper the potential for
northern Missouri to reach heat headline criteria today.

Confidence is increasing with upper level ridge building across the
region in heat headlines for the entire region Tuesday- at least
Thursday. A cold front is expected to approach from the north and
west late week, though there is some question as to whether the
front would actually make it Thursday into Friday. Models hint that
the direct feed of Gulf moisture into the central US may weaken ever
so slightly on Friday, potentially leading to a brief reprieve from
heat headlines before the ridge restrengthens some into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Patchy fog across northwest Missouri may impact KSTJ terminal
for the next hour or so.

Heavy rainfall east of highway 65 this morning should gradually
weaken through the morning hours. Storms have produced an
outflow propigating westward, with additional storms across
eastern Kansas moving east. Expect isolated - scattered storms
to develop across the KC metro in the 13-16Z time frame.
Thereafter, expect VFR conditions to return to the region with a
light southerly wind prevailing.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001-002-004-011>014-020>023.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ007-008-016-
     017-024-025-032-033-040.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0507 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221007-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0507 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Flood threat continues for portions of Macon, Linn and Randolph
  counties early this morning. Storms capable of 1-2"/hr rates could
  lead to flash flooding.

* Heat builds back into the region today and is expected to
  continue into Thursday. Excessive heat warning is in effect
  through Thursday south of highway 36, with a heat advisory
  today for northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri. Increasing
  confidence in the need for head headlines regionwide at least
  Tuesday- Thursday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
518 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     Flash Flood      Brookfield              39.79N 93.08W
07/21/2025                   Linn               MO   Law Enforcement

            Sheriffs office reports several roads
            flooded in Brookfield.

&&

BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
519 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 AM     Flash Flood      Marceline               39.72N 92.95W
07/21/2025                   Linn               MO   Law Enforcement

            Roads flooded in Marceline.

&&

BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
658 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 AM     Flash Flood      1 S Laredo              40.01N 93.45W
07/21/2025                   Grundy             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Water over route V.

&&

BT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
715 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     Flood            4 W Linneus             39.88N 93.27W
07/21/2025                   Linn               MO   Dept of Highways

            MoDOT reporting Route B closed in both
            directions due to flooding.

&&

BP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
902 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     Flood            Rothville               39.65N 93.06W
07/21/2025                   Chariton           MO   Dept of Highways

            MoDOT reports Route E closed in both
            directions near Rothville due to flooding.

&&

BP