Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Kansas City, MO

943 
WGUS73 KEAX 211436 RRA
FFSEAX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
936 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

MOC041-079-115-117-121-175-211446-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0025.000000T0000Z-250721T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chariton MO-Grundy MO-Linn MO-Livingston MO-Macon MO-Randolph MO-
936 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR NORTHEASTERN CHARITON, 
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY, LINN, NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON, SOUTHWESTERN 
MACON AND NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

A Flood Warning has replaced all or portions of the this Flash Flood 
Warning. Please continue to use caution traveling within the flood 
warned area and heed to any water covered roads or road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 PM CDT for portions of 
central, north central, and northeast Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4004 9312 3960 9244 3948 9275 4004 9362

$$

Curtis

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
247 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Flood threat continues for portions of Macon, Linn and Randolph
  counties early this morning. Storms capable of 1-2"/hr rates could
  lead to flash flooding.

* Heat builds back into the region today and is expected to
  continue into Thursday. Excessive heat warning is in effect
  through Thursday south of highway 36, with a heat advisory
  today for northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri. Increasing
  confidence in the need for head headlines regionwide at least
  Tuesday- Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Another messy low confidence forecast this morning. Accas developed
mainly along and north of I-70 overnight. Had storm development as
far west as STJ, but were unable to sustain themselves for any
period of time west if I-35. CAMs are currently not handling the
current situation well, but appears storm development has primarily
focused along the highway 36 corridor potentially along a weak
boundary. Convection along the potential boundary may shift south
towards the I-70 corridor this morning, before lifting back to the
north as upper ridge strengthens today. RAP keeps convection going
through the morning hours today going across northern Missouri,
while the HRRR and RRFS dry out shortly after sunrise. Unlike
yesterday, don't see any features that would help aid in convective
development to the west. Atmosphere appears to be fairly weakly
capped, and NAMNEST and HRRR suggest at least the potential for an
isolated storm through at least the afternoon hours; however, the
overall expectation is that thunderstorm threat will gradually shift
north through the day as upper level ridge across the southeastern
US strengthens with heat and capping inversion building north. Clouds
and any potential storms would certainly hamper the potential for
northern Missouri to reach heat headline criteria today.

Confidence is increasing with upper level ridge building across the
region in heat headlines for the entire region Tuesday- at least
Thursday. A cold front is expected to approach from the north and
west late week, though there is some question as to whether the
front would actually make it Thursday into Friday. Models hint that
the direct feed of Gulf moisture into the central US may weaken ever
so slightly on Friday, potentially leading to a brief reprieve from
heat headlines before the ridge restrengthens some into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Isolated to scatted thunderstorms capable of very heavy rain are
possible through ~15Z Monday mainly along and north of I-70.
Thereafter, the threat for thunderstorms will lift north, with
VFR and very warm muggy conditions continuing throughout much of
the week.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ001-002-004-011>014-020>023.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ007-008-016-
     017-024-025-032-033-040.
KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ025-102.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0506 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-211006-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0506 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected today
  north of boundary across the region.  Stronger storms would be
  capable of very heave rainfall and gusty winds.

* Heat is expected to become more established across the region
  on Tuesday, lasting through at least Thursday.