River Flood Warning 18, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
950 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm complex will moving out of the area late this
  morning. Additional scattered storms possible this afternoon
  and evening (30-60% chance). Lightning and damaging winds to
  60 mph are primary hazards however the severe risk continues
  to decrease.

- Additionally, locally heavy rainfall will be seen through
  tonight. A Flood Watch remains in effect for an additional 0.5
  to 1 inch of rainfall.

- Very high confidence on less humid and cooler conditions late
  this week and over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Another MCS has moved through the area this morning and has
approached the far eastern edges of the CWA. Occasional wind
gusts of 30-45 mph have occurred however it has remained fairly
tame in severity. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5 to locally
2 inches of rainfall have occurred with this activity this
morning. Behind the MCS, a fairly stable airmass has moved in
with surface temps in the upper 60s to around 70. Latest meso
analysis showed a decent cold pool/strong inhibition over the
area with ML CAPE now less than 1000j/kg.

A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) was located near Des Moines
and this feature will slowly move east today. Expectations are
for that the MCV to approach the area by early afternoon
however airmass recovery may not allow for too many organized
storms. The area south of I-80 has the best chance of seeing any
airmass recovery with the HRRR showing the potential for up to
1500j/kg of ML CAPE down closer to the Missouri border by 21z. Therefore
thinking more of a scattered variety of showers and storms to
develop this afternoon across the area, especially south of
I-80. If, and its a big if, instability increases enough down
there then a few severe storms could still develop this
afternoon where SPC has the Marginal risk.

Given PW values around 1.8-2.0in, locally heavy rainfall could
still occur as well with the current activity and the afternoon
scattered storms. We have seen some rises on area rivers and
tribs however likely not going to see any additional widespread
heavy rainfall rates past this morning MCS therefore
contemplating some adjustments to the Flood Watch for portions
of the area. It is also possible that the bulk of tonights
rainfall may stay south/east of the area therefore we will look
at the 12z HREF data and will likely have some Flood Watch
adjustment out by 18z.

Otherwise did update pops to keep them pretty high east of the
Mississippi River for this morning then taper down to the
scattered variety for afternoon. Have dropped temps closer to
the consshort/HRRR given the widespread clouds/precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The first of two storm complexes will move across the northwest
quadrant of the area through sunrise. With the high PWATs, brief
heavy rain will be seen along with strong winds.

The overall concern will be the second storm complex that is
currently west of I-35. This complex will arrive during the morning
hours (a normal convective minima) and should exit the area by early
afternoon. This complex will also have brief heavy rain but the more
organized structure of it, per the very short term models, suggests
it will have the potential to produce low end severe wind gusts.

In between these two storm complexes, isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be seen. If one very short term model is
correct then a third storm complex may impact the area this
afternoon.

Boundaries put out by both complexes will then provide the focus for
additional storms during the afternoon hours.

A concern is the recent wet pattern the area has been in. Over the
past week most areas along/north of Highway 30 have seen 50-75
percent of normal rainfall with pockets over 300 percent.
Along/south of I-80 it is a different story. The entire area on
average has seen 300 percent of normal rainfall in the past week
with large areas in excess of 500 percent.

Given the potential for heavy rain during the day and more tonight
as the cold front slowly moves through the area, a flood watch will
be issued for the entire area.

Indeed there are some model solutions suggesting areas of 1 to 2
inches of rain prior to sunrise Wednesday and again during the
daylight hours. There is at least one model solution suggesting
areas of 1 to 3 inches of rain tonight.

Tonight a widespread rain will be seen across the area with embedded
thunderstorms. Right now there is no indication that storms could
repeat over the same areas. However, storm scale interactions that
are not handled well by the models could come into play and result
in areas of locally excessive rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Ensembles are in strong agreement that a pattern change will
occur with the upper level high getting shunted farther
southwest, with northwest flow aloft developing over our area.
This will allow for a much cooler and drier air mass to move
into the area Thursday into the weekend. NBM high temp spreads
are quite small (2-4 deg) which leads to high confidence in
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. This is 10 degrees below
average for late July. Pops remain below 20 percent through
until Monday when the next disturbance moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

The next storm complex will move into northern Illinois starting
around 12z/30 with wind gusts up to 35 knots possible and brief
IFR conditions. Very short range models continue to suggest a
third storm complex developing in eastern Iowa after 18z/30 that
moves east into northern Illinois which may have a few severe
storms. After 00z/31 a widespread rain will overspread eastern
Iowa and northern Illinois with embedded TSRA. CIGS will be
collapsing to MVFR/IFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 839 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

New river flood warnings have been issued for the Skunk
River at Sigourney and the English River at Kalona. There are
also news watches for all sites on the Iowa River south of
Columbus Junction.

Higher levels are expected on many area rivers based on
the latest 24 hours of forecast rainfall. The current forecast
has widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain across all of eastern Iowa,
northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. The current
placement of the heaviest rainfall is on the Wapsipinicon,
Iowa, Cedar, Skunk, and English River Basins. Have decided not
to issue river flood watches for sites that go above flood
stage beyond 48 hours in case the heaviest rain falls in a
different location.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch through late tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054-
     063>068-076>078-087-088.
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for IAZ089-098-099.
IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ001-002-007-009-015.
     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ILZ016>018-024>026-
     034-035.
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...Cousins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-310815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
306 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms will be seen today and tonight that will be capable
of producing heavy rainfall. The humid conditions will continue
into tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal, level 1 out of 5, risk
of severe storms today into this evening. The primary risk will be
damaging winds.

Several area rivers are or will be experiencing flooding. Please
see the latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Thunderstorms will be possible south of Interstate 80 Thursday
morning but no severe storms are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today into this evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
850 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 AM     Rain             2 N Central City        42.24N 91.52W
07/30/2025  M1.33 Inch       Linn               IA   Trained Spotter

            rain since midnight.

&&

GROSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
914 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Independence            42.47N 91.89W
07/30/2025                   Buchanan           IA   Law Enforcement

            Delayed report, a few trees down in town
            from early AM storms. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

GROSS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
915 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Littleton               42.53N 92.02W
07/30/2025                   Buchanan           IA   Law Enforcement

            Trees down in town. Time estimated from
            radar.

&&

GROSS

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
924 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 AM     Rain             1 W Sigourney           41.34N 92.22W
07/30/2025  M1.64 Inch       Keokuk             IA   Trained Spotter

&&

GROSS