River Flood Warning 13, NWS Quad Cities, IA

444 
WGUS83 KDVN 301454
FLSDVN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  North Skunk River near Sigourney affecting Keokuk County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

The next statement will be issued byThursday morning at 1000 AM CDT.

&&

IAC107-311500-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250804T1432Z/
/SIGI4.2.ER.250730T0220Z.250731T1800Z.250804T0632Z.NO/
954 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...North Skunk River near Sigourney.

* WHEN...Until late Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Water affects most agricultural land near 
  Sigourney.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Wednesday the stage was 18.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.9
    feet early tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4124 9206 4129 9240 4134 9240 4131 9213
      4126 9201


$$

Gross

538 
WGUS83 KDVN 310212
FLSDVN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
912 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  North Skunk River near Sigourney affecting Keokuk County.

  Skunk River at Augusta affecting Lee, Des Moines and Henry IA 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/quadcities.

The next statement will be issued by Thursday evening at 915 PM CDT.

&&

IAC107-010215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250803T1830Z/
/SIGI4.2.ER.250730T0220Z.250801T0600Z.250803T1030Z.NO/
912 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...North Skunk River near Sigourney.

* WHEN...Until early Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Water affects most agricultural land near 
  Sigourney.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 18.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 8:30 PM CDT Wednesday was 18.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.6
    feet early Friday morning. It will then fall below flood
    stage early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4124 9206 4129 9240 4134 9240 4131 9213
      4126 9201


$$

IAC057-087-111-010215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0016.250731T1905Z-250802T1900Z/
/AGSI4.1.ER.250731T1905Z.250801T1200Z.250802T1100Z.NO/
912 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skunk River at Augusta.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon to early Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Water floods some agricultural land near 
  the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:45 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 13.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early tomorrow afternoon to a crest of 16.6 feet Friday
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage Saturday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4091 9164 4095 9159 4088 9149 4088 9144
      4076 9118 4076 9111 4072 9112 4070 9111
      4067 9112 4070 9120 4074 9130 4081 9146
      4083 9153


$$

Cousins

503 
WGUS83 KDVN 311519
FLSDVN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1019 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  North Skunk River near Sigourney affecting Keokuk County.

  Skunk River at Augusta affecting Lee, Henry IA and Des Moines 
  Counties.

  Wapsipinicon River near De Witt 4S affecting Clinton and Scott 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/quadcities.

The next statement will be issued by Friday morning at 1030 AM CDT.

&&

IAC107-011530-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250803T0617Z/
/SIGI4.2.ER.250730T0220Z.250730T1800Z.250802T2217Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...North Skunk River near Sigourney.

* WHEN...Until early Sunday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Water affects agricultural land, some 
  county roads, and farm houses.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 17.8 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.8
    feet this afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage
    Saturday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4124 9206 4129 9240 4134 9240 4131 9213
      4126 9201


$$

IAC057-087-111-011530-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0016.250731T2217Z-250802T1700Z/
/AGSI4.1.ER.250731T2217Z.250801T1200Z.250802T0900Z.NO/
1019 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Skunk River at Augusta.

* WHEN...From this afternoon to early Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Water floods some agricultural land near 
  the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:45 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 13.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this afternoon to a crest of 16.2 feet tomorrow morning.
    It will then fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4091 9164 4095 9159 4088 9149 4088 9144
      4076 9118 4076 9111 4072 9112 4070 9111
      4067 9112 4070 9120 4074 9130 4081 9146
      4083 9153


$$

IAC045-163-011530-
/O.CON.KDVN.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DEWI4.3.ER.250731T1800Z.250806T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1019 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast. This approaches the flood of 
  record.

* WHERE...Wapsipinicon River near De Witt 4S.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 12.5 feet, Major Flood Stage. Water affects old U.S. 
  Highway 61 near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 10.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 12.6 feet
    Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4200 9090 4184 9071 4177 9033 4169 9035
      4171 9080 4185 9090


$$

Gross

316 
WGUS83 KDVN 010116
FLSDVN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
816 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Iowa...

  North Skunk River near Sigourney affecting Keokuk County.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Skunk River at Augusta affecting Des Moines, Henry IA and Lee 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

The next statement will be issued bythis evening at 930 PM CDT.

&&

IAC057-087-111-010230-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-250801T0116Z/
/AGSI4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
816 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Skunk River at Augusta.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 14.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 14.4
    feet tomorrow morning.


&&

LAT...LON 4091 9164 4095 9159 4088 9149 4088 9144
      4076 9118 4076 9111 4072 9112 4070 9111
      4067 9112 4070 9120 4074 9130 4081 9146
      4083 9153


$$

IAC107-020130-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250804T1000Z/
/SIGI4.2.ER.250730T0220Z.250730T1800Z.250804T0200Z.NO/
816 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...North Skunk River near Sigourney.

* WHEN...Until early Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Water affects most agricultural land near 
  Sigourney.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:30 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 16.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:30 PM CDT Thursday was 18.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 17.6
    feet Saturday evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    late Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4124 9206 4129 9240 4134 9240 4131 9213
      4126 9201


$$

Cousins

035 
WGUS83 KDVN 011532
FLSDVN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1032 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  North Skunk River near Sigourney affecting Keokuk County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

The next statement will be issued bySaturday morning at 1045 AM CDT.

&&

IAC107-021545-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250802T1800Z/
/SIGI4.2.ER.250730T0220Z.250730T1800Z.250802T1000Z.NO/
1032 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...North Skunk River near Sigourney.

* WHEN...Until early Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Water affects agricultural land, some 
  county roads, and farm houses.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:30 AM CDT Friday the stage was 16.0 feet and steady.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 16.2 feet this
    evening. It will then fall below flood stage late tonight.
  - Flood stage is 16.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4124 9206 4129 9240 4134 9240 4131 9213
      4126 9201


$$

Friedlein

957 
WGUS83 KDVN 020215
FLSDVN

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Iowa...

  Wapsipinicon River near De Witt 4S affecting Clinton and Scott 
  Counties.

  Cedar River near Conesville affecting Muscatine and Louisa 
  Counties.

  Cedar River at Cedar Rapids affecting Linn County.

  Iowa River at Oakville affecting Louisa County.

  Iowa River at Wapello affecting Louisa County.

  Iowa River at Marengo affecting Benton and Iowa Counties.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Iowa...

  North Skunk River near Sigourney affecting Keokuk County.

...The Flood Warning is expired for the following rivers in Iowa...

  English River at Kalona affecting Washington and Johnson Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

The next statement will be issued by this evening at 1015 PM CDT.

&&

IAC107-020315-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-250802T0215Z/
/SIGI4.2.ER.250730T0220Z.250730T1800Z.250801T1615Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the North Skunk River near Sigourney.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 15.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 7.2 feet Friday,
    August 08.


&&

LAT...LON 4124 9206 4129 9240 4134 9240 4131 9213
      4126 9201


$$

IAC103-183-020315-
/O.EXP.KDVN.FL.W.0014.000000T0000Z-250802T0200Z/
/KALI4.2.ER.250730T0315Z.250731T0245Z.250801T1800Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The Flood Warning has expired for
  the English River at Kalona.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 13.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 6.9 feet Friday,
    August 08.


&&

LAT...LON 4151 9194 4152 9153 4146 9152 4144 9173
      4148 9194


$$

IAC115-030215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-250808T2300Z/
/OKVI4.1.ER.250731T1245Z.250801T2315Z.250808T1500Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY, AUGUST 08...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Iowa River at Oakville.

* WHEN...Until Friday, August 08.

* IMPACTS...At 11.5 feet, River Road is under water and the water is 
  a few feet up onto the levee.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 11.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river will rise to 11.9 feet early Saturday
    afternoon and generally hold steady through the middle of
    next week.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4112 9116 4116 9113 4115 9111 4113 9108
      4115 9107 4117 9105 4116 9103 4117 9101
      4116 9099 4114 9098 4113 9102 4109 9103
      4108 9110


$$

IAC115-030215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-250809T0200Z/
/WAPI4.1.ER.250731T0515Z.250806T1800Z.250808T1800Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY, AUGUST 08...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Iowa River at Wapello.

* WHEN...Until Friday, August 08.

* IMPACTS...At 22.0 feet, Water affects residences near the U.S. 
  Highway 61 bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:15 PM CDT Friday the stage was 21.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river has risen to 22.0 feet Friday evening
    and will generally hold steady through midweek before
    falling.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4123 9129 4126 9126 4124 9121 4119 9114
      4116 9113 4112 9116 4116 9119 4121 9125


$$

IAC115-139-030215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-250808T0100Z/
/CNEI4.1.ER.250731T0115Z.250805T0000Z.250807T2100Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Cedar River near Conesville.

* WHEN...Until Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 13.5 feet, Water affects yards and access roads of 
  residences along Iowa Highway 22. Water affects the lowest 
  sections of campgrounds just north of I-80 along the river and the 
  lowest sections of Jack Shuger Memorial Park in Moscow. Water is 
  also on 152nd Street north of County Road F70.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 13.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 13.9
    feet Monday evening. It will then fall below flood stage
    Thursday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 13.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4160 9118 4160 9105 4153 9107 4141 9124
      4132 9131 4127 9133 4129 9136 4132 9138
      4137 9135 4146 9130 4157 9115


$$

IAC045-163-030215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-250808T1830Z/
/DEWI4.3.ER.250731T2337Z.250806T1200Z.250808T1630Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY, AUGUST 08...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Wapsipinicon River near De Witt 4S.

* WHEN...Until Friday, August 08.

* IMPACTS...At 12.5 feet, Major Flood Stage. Water affects old U.S. 
  Highway 61 near the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:30 PM CDT Friday the stage was 11.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 12.5
    feet Wednesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4200 9090 4184 9071 4177 9033 4169 9035
      4171 9080 4185 9090


$$

IAC011-095-030215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250809T2300Z/
/MROI4.2.ER.250720T2155Z.250805T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY, AUGUST 09...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Iowa River at Marengo.

* WHEN...Until Saturday, August 09.

* IMPACTS...At 17.0 feet, Moderate Flood Stage. Extensive inundation 
  of agricultural land.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 17.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to hold steady through the
    weekend and then rise to a crest of 17.8 feet Tuesday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4189 9230 4187 9224 4185 9216 4182 9206
      4181 9193 4182 9183 4176 9183 4176 9191
      4178 9210 4184 9230


$$

IAC113-030215-
/O.EXT.KDVN.FL.W.0015.250803T1800Z-250805T0200Z/
/CIDI4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
915 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE MONDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cedar River at Cedar Rapids.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon to late Monday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 11.5 feet, Water affects Osborn Park in Cedar Rapids.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 11.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Sunday morning to a crest of 12.1 feet Monday morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage Monday night.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 4201 9179 4204 9169 4201 9165 4198 9162
      4200 9157 4190 9141 4186 9137 4186 9150
      4191 9158 4192 9165


$$

JTS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
710 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat indices will range from 95 to 105 for areas along/south
  of I-80 this afternoon and evening. Heat Advisory remains in
  effect for these areas.

- Low potential (20-30%) of a scattered thunderstorm this
  afternoon and evening. Much higher chances (70-90%) of a round
  of thunderstorms late tonight through Wednesday. Some storms
  may be severe with damaging winds the main hazard.

- Rainfall amounts tonight through Wednesday night could be in
  the 1-2 inch range with localized amounts near 3 inches. This
  could cause localized flooding on Wednesday.

- Confidence is high that much cooler and drier conditions will
  arrive for late week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a broad upper level high pressure
cell/ridge over the central US. Iowa remains along the northern
periphery of this and therefore continues to be susceptible to
ridge runners. 12z KDVN sounding showed strong inhibition
(convective temp 106F) in the wake of the early morning MCS and
therefore has created another tight instability gradient across
the area. The mesoscale features were quite messy with multiple
things going on this afternoon. The early morning MCS has pushed
an outflow boundary well south of the area into Missouri and
has essentially become diffuse. A surface low across southern MN
has draped another boundary east/southeast into northern
portions of the CWA where temps are slightly cooler with
northwest winds. Lastly, a weakening cluster of showers north of
Des Moines has an associated outflow boundary moving into the
southwestern CWA.

The airmass was slowly beginning to recover/destabilize early
this afternoon, especially along and south of I-80 where ML CAPE
was now up to around 2500 J/kg. Much higher instability exists
just west/southwest of the CWA. Temps were increasing into the
middle to upper 80s with dews in the middle to upper 70s along
and south of I-80.

This afternoon through this evening: low confidence forecast
for this time period as CAMS have struggled with morning/early
afternoon isolated storms across northern/central Iowa. One
thing that has occurred is that storms seem to weaken as they
approach our area which makes sense given the inhibition. We
will maintain low pops (10-30%) through the afternoon and
evening hours mainly due to presence of several mesoscale
features. However, it's likely many places remain dry. Last few
runs of the Warn On Forecast model shows a signal for a few pop
up storms south of I-80, closer to the Missouri border in the
3-6pm time frame. If a storm were to get organized, then
damaging winds would be the most likely hazard. Temps and heat
indices are generally on track with peak heat indices in the 95
to 105 range this afternoon/early evening. Highest values south
of I-80 where temps and dews are higher. Heat Advisory remains
in effect until 8pm.

Overnight through Wednesday: There is a good signal in the high
res guidance that a low level jet will develop overnight across
western Kansas into Nebraska. This combined with an incoming
shortwave and favorable upper level jet structure will allow for
another MCS to form. 12z HREF reflectivity paintball plots
suggest that this will likely form in/near Nebraska and then
roll/develop east overnight. Additional warm air advection type
activity may develop out ahead of it across the frontal
boundary that will be slowly sagging south into central Iowa.
Instability and shear would be favorable for this to be severe
as it approaches western portions of the CWA as early as 3am.
However, several CAMS show it moving in later. There is more
consensus that the MCS moves in closer to sunrise, lasting
through the morning hours. Instability will decrease with
eastern extent; therefore there is some question as to the
severe magnitude. Damaging winds gusts of 60-70mph will be a
concern as this MCS moves in, especially if it moves in as a
line segment as some of the 12z CAMS suggest.

Behind the complex, a lingering (but likely weakening) low
level jet, combined with a surface front and upper level lift
should allow for scattered showers and storms to last at times
through the morning and perhaps afternoon. If the morning MCS has
a strong enough cold pool, this could shunt the storms farther
south. However if it does not, then we will need to watch the
position of the front for additional strong to severe storms by
the afternoon if enough instability can return. Confidence is
low in the severe threat for tomorrow afternoon.

The other component is the heavy rainfall/localized flood
threat. HREF mean PW values increase to around 2.0in late
tonight through Wednesday. Therefore, plenty of moisture is
available for heavy rainfall/efficient rates. Furthermore, the
ECMWF EFI/Shift of tails tool suggests the potential for an
anomalously high rainfall event somewhere across
central/southern Iowa (generally the I-80 corridor). 12z HREF
qpf data suggests a footprint of 1-2 inches with localized
pockets of 3 inches across our area with higher amounts farther
west of the area. Currently, this looks to fall across a long
enough time period to not cause widespread flooding. However,
if that time window becomes shorter, then the flooding threat
could increase. We will continue to monitor the qpf forecasts
over the next 12-18 hours. Currently NBM high temps suggest
upper 70s to lower 80s tomorrow given the clouds/precip and
increasing northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Ensembles are in strong agreement that a pattern change will
occur with the upper level high getting shunted farther
southwest, with northwest flow aloft developing over our area.
This will allow for a much cooler and drier air mass to move
into the area Thursday into the weekend. NBM high temp spreads
are quite small (2-4 deg) which leads to high confidence in
highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. This is 10 degrees below
average for late July. Pops remain below 20 percent through
until Monday when the next disturbance moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight
which could bring brief heavy rainfall and MVFR/IFR conditions.
Confidence is low on the coverage and placement with this first
wave so mentioned potential in PROB30s. A more widespread round
of storms is expected Wednesday AM, moving through from west to
east. This could lead to a period of torrential rainfall and
gusty winds, along with brief IFR conditions. The active weather
continues through the end of the period with scattered showers
and isolated storms for Wednesday PM, which may be accompanied
by MVFR/IFR ceilings.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ076>078-
     087>089-098-099.
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ025-026-034-
     035.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.

&&

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...Uttech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
207 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-301915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
207 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a low chance of a thunderstorm this afternoon and
evening, mainly south of Interstate 80. If a thunderstorm were to
form then lightning and damaging wind gusts would be the most
likely hazards. Most areas should remain dry.

Higher confidence that thunderstorms develop to the west tonight
and move towards the area after 3am, especially closer to sunrise.
Damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard. The Storm
Prediction Center has a marginal, level 1 out of 5 risk, for
severe storms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

An ongoing round of thunderstorms is likely Wednesday morning with
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall the most likely hazards.
Localized flooding could also occur with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible by Wednesday morning.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
139 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Manchester              42.49N 91.46W
07/29/2025                   Delaware           IA   Broadcast Media

            Large tree uprooted in Manchester, which
            fell on a fence. Time and location
            estimated.

&&

TJG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
256 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Cedar Rapids        41.97N 91.64W
07/29/2025                   Linn               IA   Trained Spotter

            Delayed report of tree branches down. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&