Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Monday evening, capable
  of producing marginally severe hail and wind gusts.

- Dry, mild and quiet through much of this week.

- Scattered thunderstorms will return over Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery indicated a cumulus field expanding
across western zones, and mesoanalysis shows the strongest
instability has transitioned east of SW KS. Still, residual
boundary layer moisture, and cooling midlevel temperatures, will
result in modest instablity through this evening as the primary
trough axis passes overhead. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop across SE Colorado and adjoining SW KS through 7 pm,
then track eastward this evening. Multicell convection will
prevail, with the strongest storms capable of hail to 1 inch and
wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Strong subsidence will clear the sky
rapidly through Tuesday morning.

An extended period of quiet, dry and unseasonably convectively
quiet weather is expected through most of this week. NWly
midlevel flow will direct gulf moisture supply away from SW KS
through Thursday, and the forecast is completely dry through
this time period. No significant air mass exchanges are expected
through Thursday, with afternoon temperatures averaging within a
few degrees of late May climatology.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage Friday appears minimal, as
broad midlevel ridging prevails. Over the Memorial Day weekend,
SWly midlevel flow will reestablish, downstream of modest
troughing approaching from the Rockies. Moisture will finally
increase again Saturday in response to SEly boundary layer flow.
Limited severe potential is most evident on Saturday. Rain and
thunderstorm increase in coverage Sunday, as the primary trough
arrives, but an associated strong front will likely restrict any
severe risk well south of SW KS. NBM pops Saturday through
Monday are in the chance category (25-54%) and these were
accepted. In general, no synoptically evident severe weather
threats are evident in the guidance, for the next seven days, as
we enter the climatological peak of our severe weather season.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected after 03z Tue. Confidence of impacts
is highest at LBL, where -TSRA was included, but only mentioned
VCTS/CB at GCK/DDC for now. Kept the HYS TAF dry. A cold front
will bring an increase in north winds after 00z Tue, gusting
25-30 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
304 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
304 AM CDT Mon May 19 2025 /204 AM MDT Mon May 19 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A marginal risk of severe weather after 4 pm for areas mainly
along and south of highway 96. Main threats could be hail up to
the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated for today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
513 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

KSZ043-192300-
Scott KS-
513 PM CDT Mon May 19 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles northwest of Modoc, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Scott
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10085 3848 10087 3851 10113 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 271DEG 16KT 3867 10121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

SPRINGER