Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
618 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant severe weather potential with high impacts are possible
  today with giant (up to 4 inches) hail, damaging winds,
  tornadoes along and east of 283 between 3-8 pm

- A line of storms is forecast to sweep across SW Kansas Monday
  that may strengthen to severe thresholds upon reaching the
  eastern portion of the CWA

- Dry and warm middle of the week before rain chances (20-30%
  via ensembles) return on Friday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Mesoscale Discussion...

T-storms have become severe and tornadic in the very moist air
mass despite the presence of cool air and light fog. 0-1 km srh
values have increased to around 500 m2/s2 based on Dodge City
VAD wind profile, which is supportive of strong tornadoes. This
environment will persist through 8 pm, with additional
tornadoes possible, along with very large hail. The main area of
concern is along and east of a line from Scott City to Garden
City to Meade.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Current surface and RAP mesoanalysis are confirming the forecasted
trajectory of a deepening low pressure system as it moves over the
Rockies. This sets up for a day of severe weather across Kansas with
all hazards possible. Uncertainty remains on if/where storms are
able it initiate, but if they do the storms will have access to an
environment able and waiting to nurture the storms into strong ones
capable of producing up to giant (4 inch) hail, strong tornadoes,
and damaging winds. The hail threat is expected to persist
throughout the event with the greatest tornado potential kicking off
later into the evening around 7 pm as the LLJ increases. The wind
threat is relatively minor, but severe gusts up to 70 mph are
possible with any strong storms. Non-thunderstorm winds are
forecasted to gust as strong as 50 mph, especially near the CO/KS
border as a result of the strong and deepening low.

With respect to the environment the mesoscale update portion of the
AFD will go into more detail, but the environment is very favorable
for severe weather if they can initiate both in regards to surface
parameters and upper-level dynamical support as the upper-level
trough supports the surface low. Ensembles have sufficient difluent
flow aloft as well as notable CVA at 500 mb. CAM trends continue to
be more bullish on a dry intrusion developing around 700 mb into the
evening. Both the RAP and NAMNST forecast soundings continue to be
more than optimistic with CAPE values >3000 J/kg and SRH values >250
m2/s2. Combined with ample shear and a nicely curved hodograph, the
environment exists for very strong supercell development and
maintenance. Especially into the evening once the LLJ strengthens and
the dry intrusion expands, the potential for strong longer-tracked
tornadoes are possible after around 6-7 pm.

The biggest concern is the uncertainty of initiation. Stratus from
earlier today lingered longer than previously anticipated, which
would make it more difficult for storms to break the CAP, although
CAMs are in disagreement on how much CAP exists. CAMs can not decide
where to initiate, how much storms will develop, and how long the
development window will last. The NAMNST has limited development
contained to the southeast portion of the CWA, while the HRRR has
multiple rounds of storms firing as far west as highway 83. That far
west would have less CAP with the trade-off of a less favorable
environment. However, if they storms can initiate and survive long
enough to access the prime atmosphere farther east, the very strong
severe storms mentioned are still more than possible. The next
couple hours will be pivotal on determining if today is closer to an
outbreak or a bust.

Monday has another round of thunderstorms progged as the trough and
deep low moves over the forecast area. CAMs have a line of storms
developing across the forecast area in the evening. As these storms
move eastward, the storms will enter a more favorable environment
for severe weather along the eastern counties yet again with very
high CAPE and shear values along with the better areas with
moisture. While some uncertainty remains, the severe potential is a
lot lower for the CWA compared to the setup on Sunday. It remains to
be see how storm development on Sunday will impact the environment
on Monday.

Beyond Monday, ensembles continue to have a dry, warm trend for SW
Kansas. Highs on Tuesday forecasted to be in the upper 70s/ lower
80s. The rest of the week is expected to follow suit with continued
highs in the 70s/80s. Ensembles continue to hint at a wave of storm
chances returning on Friday, although plenty of uncertainty still
exists this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

A uncertain TAF period is expected to continue with low stratus/fog
has current visibilities at DDC at under a mile. Stratus is expected
to continue for the next couple hours with some uncertainty on
whether it can expand to other terminals with some coverage
stretching to HYS. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms are possible
for all sites, but especially DDC over the next couple hours.
Significant uncertainty remains on how much storms are able to
develop so only DDC has the inclusion in the TAF with it expected to
stay to the east of GCK and LBL with confidence too low to include
in HYS.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
310 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190815-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
310 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025 /210 AM MDT Sun May 18 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Significant severe weather risk this afternoon and early evening
for areas along and east of highway 283. Between 3-8pm discrete
supercells are possible with an environment to support hail tennis
ball sized or greater, wind gusts over 60 mph, and tornadoes with
strong tornado potential especially after 4pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Severe weather risk for mainly areas along and east of highway 281
on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon for areas along
and east of highway 283.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
619 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Hail             3 E Ingalls             37.81N 100.41W
05/18/2025  M1.00 Inch       Gray               KS   Public

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     Tornado          6 S Scott State Lake    38.60N 100.91W
05/18/2025                   Scott              KS   Storm Chaser

            This report included video of the tornado.

0608 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Modoc                   38.49N 101.08W
05/18/2025                   Scott              KS   Emergency Mngr

            Approximately 15 rail cars blown over and
            power lines damaged. May be from a possible
            tornado.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Tornado          3 SW Scott State Lake   38.66N 100.96W
05/18/2025                   Scott              KS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Manager confirmed Tornado.

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
738 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     Tornado          3 E Kinsley             37.93N 99.36W
05/18/2025                   Edwards            KS   Storm Chaser

            Live streaming video of tornado was on
            KAKE-TV.

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
755 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     Hail             Ogallah                 38.99N 99.73W
05/18/2025  M1.00 Inch       Trego              KS   Storm Chaser

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
824 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     Tornado          1 SW Garfield           38.07N 99.26W
05/18/2025                   Pawnee             KS   Storm Chaser

            Videos of the tornado from the broadcast
            media.

&&

RCB