Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
230 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
  evening with a severe thunderstorm watch out.

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue for Carbon county

- Warm temperatures and daily coverage of isolated to scattered
  afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected for
  Tuesday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Mesoscale analysis shows an environment prime for some strong to
severe thunderstorm development as of this writing, with CAPE
around 1000-2000 J/kg and bulk effective shear of 20-40 knots. A
severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM tonight for
areas east of and around I-25 not including Converse County. The
environment is supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts,
but wind may become the more predominant threat as storms shift
eastwards through the evening hours. High resolution guidance is
in pretty solid agreement on this timeframe, with clustered
storms departing the Nebraska Panhandle around 9-10 PM.

Overnight activity should wane though a few lingering showers
or weak storms may be possible for these areas through the
morning hours. Ceilings may also lower and some mist or weak
fog could be possible for areas including Cheyenne and Sydney,
though confidence is overall low in this. For Monday a few
upslope showers or storms may develop off of the high terrain in
Wyoming, but probabilities are overall on the low side and we'll
see this quickly wane with the setting of the sun. Otherwise
today and tomorrow will be the coolest days of the period, with
highs today in the 70's to 80's with widespread highs on Monday
in the 70's to low 80's thanks to the cold front. That will
change as we move into the long term though as summer warmth
returns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday...A warming trend develops as 700 mb temperatures rise to
near 15 Celsius. Adequate moisture aloft for isolated to widely
scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over and near
the mountains.

Wednesday...The warming trend continues as 700 mb temperatures reach
16 Celsius. Moisture availability looks less than Tuesday, thus we
anticipate less shower and thunderstorm coverage.

Thursday-July 4th...Similar temperatures on Thursday compared to
Wednesday with 700 mb temperatures near 16 Celsius. A bit cooler for
July 4th, with more cloud cover and moisture aloft. Scattered late
day showers and thunderstorms each day.

Saturday...Although ridging aloft builds overhead, there should
still be adequate low and mid level moisture for scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler temperatures
expected for most locations.

Sunday...Slightly warmer as the flow aloft turns westerly. Adequate
low and mid level moisture for scattered late day showers and
thunderstorms, mainly east of Interstate 25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions will be prevalent over the next 24 hours, with a
handful of exceptions. First, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and impact all sites through
this evening, and any storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall and reduce visibilities for brief periods, alongside
gusty and erratic winds. Storms could even be strong to severe
from KCYS through the Nebraska terminals, with very strong winds
and hail possible. Then, cloud bases will remain generally mid
level at around 3-6k feet, but later tonight a lowered cloud
deck could bring reduced CIGs below 1-2k feet for KCYS and KSNY.
Otherwise expect clouds decks outside of this to lift, becoming
mid to high level and clearing into tomorrow. Winds will be
breezy through this afternoon, around 10-20 knots with gusts
20-30 knots possible outside of the aforementioned storms,
weakening into tomorrow morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-302115-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

- Severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 9 PM Sunday evening
  for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

- Thunderstorms resume on Tuesday with another risk of strong to
  severe thunderstorms for the Nebraska Panhandle.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter reports are encouraged this evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
320 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Arlington          41.62N 106.24W
06/29/2025  M67 MPH          Carbon             WY   Dept of Highways

            Mesonet station WY22 2.7 NW Arlington
            (WYDOT). Gust was associated with decaying
            showers/storms.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
332 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     Hail             5 SSE Whitaker          41.35N 104.83W
06/29/2025  E1.50 Inch       Laramie            WY   Trained Spotter

&&

CG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
411 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

WYZ117-118-292245-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
411 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 411 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Horse Creek, or 29 miles northeast of Laramie,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Laramie County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4143 10518 4156 10519 4160 10491 4141 10490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 269DEG 12KT 4151 10509

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Goatley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
505 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

WYZ103-105>107-292345-
East Platte County WY-Shirley Basin WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
North Laramie Range WY-
505 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ALBANY...WEST
CENTRAL PLATTE AND SOUTH CENTRAL CONVERSE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
MDT...

At 504 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Windy Peak, or 31 miles south of Douglas, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Friend Park Campground, Windy Peak, Laramie Peak, Harris Park, and
Westview Circle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4223 10585 4239 10582 4239 10505 4207 10506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 276DEG 33KT 4233 10560

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Rubin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
511 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     Hail             4 S Hawk Springs        41.73N 104.27W
06/29/2025  M1.25 Inch       Goshen             WY   Trained Spotter

            Half dollar sized hail reported just south
            of the intersection of US85 and WY313.

&&

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