Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
230 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
  evening with a severe thunderstorm watch out.

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue for Carbon county

- Warm temperatures and daily coverage of isolated to scattered
  afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected for
  Tuesday through Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Mesoscale analysis shows an environment prime for some strong to
severe thunderstorm development as of this writing, with CAPE
around 1000-2000 J/kg and bulk effective shear of 20-40 knots. A
severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9 PM tonight for
areas east of and around I-25 not including Converse County. The
environment is supportive of large hail and damaging wind gusts,
but wind may become the more predominant threat as storms shift
eastwards through the evening hours. High resolution guidance is
in pretty solid agreement on this timeframe, with clustered
storms departing the Nebraska Panhandle around 9-10 PM.

Overnight activity should wane though a few lingering showers
or weak storms may be possible for these areas through the
morning hours. Ceilings may also lower and some mist or weak
fog could be possible for areas including Cheyenne and Sydney,
though confidence is overall low in this. For Monday a few
upslope showers or storms may develop off of the high terrain in
Wyoming, but probabilities are overall on the low side and we'll
see this quickly wane with the setting of the sun. Otherwise
today and tomorrow will be the coolest days of the period, with
highs today in the 70's to 80's with widespread highs on Monday
in the 70's to low 80's thanks to the cold front. That will
change as we move into the long term though as summer warmth
returns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday...A warming trend develops as 700 mb temperatures rise to
near 15 Celsius. Adequate moisture aloft for isolated to widely
scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, mainly over and near
the mountains.

Wednesday...The warming trend continues as 700 mb temperatures reach
16 Celsius. Moisture availability looks less than Tuesday, thus we
anticipate less shower and thunderstorm coverage.

Thursday-July 4th...Similar temperatures on Thursday compared to
Wednesday with 700 mb temperatures near 16 Celsius. A bit cooler for
July 4th, with more cloud cover and moisture aloft. Scattered late
day showers and thunderstorms each day.

Saturday...Although ridging aloft builds overhead, there should
still be adequate low and mid level moisture for scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms. Slightly cooler temperatures
expected for most locations.

Sunday...Slightly warmer as the flow aloft turns westerly. Adequate
low and mid level moisture for scattered late day showers and
thunderstorms, mainly east of Interstate 25.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

VFR conditions will be prevalent over the next 24 hours, with a
handful of exceptions. First, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and impact all sites through
this evening, and any storms could produce locally heavy
rainfall and reduce visibilities for brief periods, alongside
gusty and erratic winds. Storms could even be strong to severe
from KCYS through the Nebraska terminals, with very strong winds
and hail possible. Then, cloud bases will remain generally mid
level at around 3-6k feet, but later tonight a lowered cloud
deck could bring reduced CIGs below 1-2k feet for KCYS and KSNY.
Otherwise expect clouds decks outside of this to lift, becoming
mid to high level and clearing into tomorrow. Winds will be
breezy through this afternoon, around 10-20 knots with gusts
20-30 knots possible outside of the aforementioned storms,
weakening into tomorrow morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-302115-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
307 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

- Severe thunderstorm watch in effect until 9 PM Sunday evening
  for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

- Thunderstorms resume on Tuesday with another risk of strong to
  severe thunderstorms for the Nebraska Panhandle.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter reports are encouraged this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
128 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

WYZ116>118-292015-
South Laramie Range WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
128 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM MDT...

At 127 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Willadsen Estates, or 19 miles southwest of Cheyenne, moving east at
25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne, Willadsen Estates, South Greeley Highway, Fox Farm-College,
Cheyenne Regional Airport, Warren AFB, Frontier Park, South Cheyenne,
Winchester Hills, Bison Crossing, and Cowboy Ranch South.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 1 and 11.
 Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 345 and 363.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4108 10523 4117 10477 4100 10476 4100 10522
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 261DEG 21KT 4102 10513

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Goatley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
202 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

WYZ116-117-292045-
South Laramie Range WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
202 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ALBANY AND
SOUTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 201 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pine Grove Estates, or 22 miles west of Cheyenne, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Happy Valley, Willadsen Estates, Silver Sage Estates, Granite Canon,
Granite Springs Reservoir, Crystal Lake Reservoir, Curt Gowdy State
Park, Pine Grove Estates, Buford, Ranchettes, and Cheyenne Pass.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 335 and
356.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

&&

LAT...LON 4109 10530 4118 10533 4123 10489 4101 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 270DEG 19KT 4114 10522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Rubin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
236 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

WYZ110-114-292115-
North Snowy Range Foothills WY-Snowy Range WY-
236 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CARBON AND CENTRAL
ALBANY COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM MDT...

At 236 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elk Mountain, or 39 miles east of Rawlins, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Elk Mountain, Arlington, and McFadden.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 249 and
281.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 10659 4177 10657 4182 10606 4145 10607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 272DEG 28KT 4168 10648

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Goatley

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
320 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NW Arlington          41.62N 106.24W
06/29/2025  M67 MPH          Carbon             WY   Dept of Highways

            Mesonet station WY22 2.7 NW Arlington
            (WYDOT). Gust was associated with decaying
            showers/storms.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
332 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     Hail             5 SSE Whitaker          41.35N 104.83W
06/29/2025  E1.50 Inch       Laramie            WY   Trained Spotter

&&

CG