Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Watches in 2025

Winter Storm Watch 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

November 25, 2025Allegany County, Cayuga County, Wayne County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm watch at Nov 25, 2025, 12:44 PM EST for Allegany County, Cayuga County, Wayne County, New York. It took effect at Nov 27, 2025, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 25, 2025, 12:44 PM EST (17:44 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 27, 2025, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Nov 26, 2025, 12:51 PM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Wayne County, NY

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2025-11-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2025-11-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 50 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2932 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
216 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

227 
WWUS41 KBUF 251744
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

NYZ012-019-020-085-260645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0012.251127T0000Z-251129T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T0600Z-251129T0600Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  12 to 20 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on 
  roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-260645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0012.251127T0600Z-251129T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T2100Z-251129T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Oswego County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-260645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0012.251127T0600Z-251129T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T0600Z-251129T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows, greatest across 
  the Tug Hill Plateau. Much lower accumulations expected for lower 
  elevations near Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence River. Winds 
  gusting as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Jefferson and Lewis Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-260645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0012.251127T0000Z-251127T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.251127T0200Z-251127T1800Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 
  50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact Thanksgiving holiday travel. 
  Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power 
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-260645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.251127T0000Z-251127T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST 
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 
  50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact Thanksgiving holiday travel. 
  Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power 
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-260645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0013.251128T0000Z-251129T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1244 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 7 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. 
  Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds could down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road 
conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be 
possible.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
2 follow-up statements
385 
WWUS41 KBUF 260619
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

NYZ007-008-012-019-020-085-261830-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T0600Z-251129T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Watertown, Lowville, Warsaw, Jamestown,
Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
119 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 
1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  10 to 20 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Jefferson, Lewis, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and 
  Southern Erie Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on 
  roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-261830-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T2100Z-251129T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
119 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 6 
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Oswego County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-261830-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.251127T0000Z-251127T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
119 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 
  50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact Thanksgiving holiday travel. 
  Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power 
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-261830-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.251127T0200Z-251127T1800Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
119 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 
  50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and slippery road conditions. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact Thanksgiving holiday travel. 
  Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power 
  outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ021-261830-
/O.EXB.KBUF.WS.A.0013.251127T1800Z-251129T0600Z/
Allegany-
Including the cities of Wellsville
119 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 7 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. 
  Winds could gust as high as 40 mph resulting in blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Allegany County.

* WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Friday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road 
conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be 
possible.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-261830-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0013.251128T0000Z-251129T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
119 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING 
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations 
  of 7 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. 
  Winds could gust as high as 45 mph resulting in blowing and 
  drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds could down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could bring rapidly changing road 
conditions and visibilities. Localized travel problems will be 
possible.

&&

$$

TMA
190 
WWUS41 KBUF 261751
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

NYZ021-270645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0013.251127T1800Z-251129T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T1200Z-251129T0600Z/
Allegany-
Including the cities of Wellsville
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 7 
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Allegany County. The greatest accumulations will be across 
  the higher terrain in the western portion of the county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on 
  roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-270645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0013.251128T0000Z-251129T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251128T0600Z-251129T1200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 7 
  to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 40 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga Counties. Greatest accumulations 
  will be across northeast Wayne and northern Cayuga counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on 
  roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ007-008-012-019-020-085-270645-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T0600Z-251129T0600Z/
Jefferson-Lewis-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Watertown, Lowville, Warsaw, Jamestown,
Olean, Orchard Park, and Springville
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 
1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 
  12 to 22 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting 
  as high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Jefferson, Lewis, Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and 
  Southern Erie Counties. The greatest accumulations off Lake Erie 
  will be found across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge, 
  Boston Hills, and southwest Wyoming County. The greatest 
  accumulations off Lake Ontario will be found across the Tug Hill 
  Plateau.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with deep snow cover on 
  roads and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ006-270645-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0010.251127T2100Z-251129T1200Z/
Oswego-
Including the cities of Oswego
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 8 
  to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as 
  high as 50 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Oswego County. The greatest accumulations will be across 
  the Tug Hill Plateau and also far southern Oswego County.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Thursday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult with snow covered roads 
  and poor visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact 
  Thanksgiving holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches 
  and cause isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be 
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ001-002-270645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.251127T0000Z-251127T1200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls and Medina
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 3 to 5 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 
  55 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Niagara and Orleans Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and slippery road conditions with reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact Thanksgiving 
  holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause 
  isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-270645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0030.251127T0200Z-251127T1800Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
1251 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING 
TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 
  55 mph will produce blowing and drifting snow.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee Counties.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and slippery road conditions and reduced 
  visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact Thanksgiving 
  holiday travel. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause 
  isolated power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, 
be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Nov 25, 5:33 AM EST, 7 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 25, 5:33 AM EST, 7 hours 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
533 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure will enter the region today, supporting a
period of rain. A strong cold front will plow through the region
Wednesday, ushering in gusty winds and localized heavy lake effect
snow east of the lakes Wednesday night through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley today, with a
period of steady rain overspreading the region from the
southwest ahead of the system warm front. The rain will spread
across western New York this morning, reaching the eastern Lake
Ontario region by mid to late afternoon. Rainfall amounts
generally ranging between a quarter and half inch. Despite the
rain, it will be a mild day with temperatures peaking in the mid
40s to lower 50s.

Dry slot works into the region behind the warm front with a
diminishing trend to the rain in the evening, before showers
pick up again overnight in continued moist southwest flow ahead
of an approaching cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...

Key points with this update...

-Initial placement of the lake effect band off Lake Erie remains a
concern Wednesday evening.

-Residence time of the lake effect off Lake Erie. How fast will
winds shift from SW to W to WNW Wednesday night into Thursday.

Synoptic pattern...

A nearly vertically stack low over the upper Great Lakes region
Wednesday will direct a potent cold front towards the eastern Great
Lakes. The cold front will quickly plow through western New York
Wednesday afternoon and then central New York by Wednesday evening,
with a colder airmass pouring into the region. A broad and deep
trough will then become established across the entire Great Lakes
region and also Northeast. A cold cyclonic SW flow will gradually
veer to W and then WNW as we head into Thanksgiving day. As the
colder air spills into the region, it will initiate a lake response
which may initially begins a a rain-snow mix then transition over to
all snow as the colder air deepens.

Winds...

As the cold front nears and then cross the area, it will become
quite windy with gusts of 40-50 mph likely by Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night, especially northeast of Lake Erie and
across the Niagara Frontier. The strong winds will spread east and
inland across the rest of the area Thursday as surface winds veer
more westerly, with gusts of 40-50 mph possible areawide. A Wind
Advisory may eventually be needed for most, if not all of the area.
The strong winds will result in blowing and drifting snow in lake
effect areas, although relatively mild temperatures and higher
density snow may help to mitigate this to some extent. Strong winds
will continue Thursday night through Friday, with gusts up to 45 mph
at times producing areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Off Lake Erie...

As the colder air spills into the Lower Lakes Wednesday evening we
will see lake effect rain or a mix of rain-snow develop northeast of
the lake. That said...there still continues to be some issues with
band placement and also residence time of the band once it develops
northeast of the lake. Latest guidance (00Z Canadian-NH/RGEM)
continues to show it initially near the Buffalo Metro area or just
north of the city Wednesday evening. However...almost all guidance
show the band pushing south fairly quickly and therefore may
potentially limit snowfall accumulations. Speaking of which...the
airmass is not all that cold at the start of the event. Infact...p-
type may initially be in the form of 'rain' then a transition to a
rain/wet snow mix will occur in the evening. Eventually it will
become cold enough or dynamically cool to the point to support all
snow by mid-evening. The question at this point...where will the
band be? This will be the issue going forward which will determine
snowfall amounts and impacts across the area. One things does appear
certain, the band will have shifted south of the city by Thursday
morning and 'likely' focused across the Boston Hills and Wyoming
county.

Just to drive it home... band 'placement' and 'residence' time will
be an issue Wednesday evening-night. Given that...will 'not' be
upgrading the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning with this update.

Thursday-Friday...a W-WNW flow will direct lake effect snows east
and then southeast of the lake. Cyclonic flow will wrap deeper
synoptic moisture back in across the lake Thursday with equilibrium
levels climbing north of 15K feet. This combined with upstream
connections will 'likely' support moderate to heavy lake effect snow
at times into Friday, mainly across Chautauqua and Cattaraugus Co.
Lake snows will ever so slowly diminish Friday as synoptic moisture
gets stripped away as the mid-level trough begins to exit off to the
northeast. Although, we still will see some accumulating snows E-ESE
of the lake into Friday night.

Off Lake Ontario...

While there will be some lag time...lake effect will eventually
organize northeast of the lake. A relatively weak band of rain or
rain/snow mix will develop overnight Wednesday night across the St.
Lawrence Valley and northern Jefferson County, with some unrelated
upslope across the Tug Hill Plateau. This will continue into
Thanksgiving Day, the lake effect will then beginning to settling
south as a secondary front sends it across Watertown and then
towards the northern Tug Hill region. The lake effect may not be too
organized or strong through a portion of Thanksgiving Day, with more
shear and less favorable low level convergence compared to Lake
Erie.

Thursday night-Friday night...upstream connections and more
favorable conditions will materialize potentially allowing for a
well organized band to setup from Wayne to western Oswego Co. This
will need to be monitor closely as additional headlines may be
needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will briefly pass through the Lower Lakes
Saturday morning with any remaining lake effect weakening or coming to
an end.

A weak low will move out of the mid-section of the nation Saturday
night, which looks like it will bring an area of light synoptic
precipitation to the region. However...model guidance diverges
significantly on the track and intensity of this system, but in
general expect a gradual warming trend Sunday with any snow
transitioning to mainly rain.

Behind this system, weak high pressure is advertised to build in for
Sunday night but uncertainty continues to remain fairly high as we
head into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A southern stream shortwave will bring a period of steady rain
today, with this rain arriving between 15 and 21Z from west to
east. Ceiling heights will lower to MVFR within the rain and to
IFR eventually late in the day and this evening, as low level
moisture builds. Visibilities should stay VFR with a low chance
for MVFR visibilities late in the day and this evening.

Outlook...

Tonight...MVFR/IFR with rain showers.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers. Turning very windy mid-day. Lake
effect snow with IFR flight conditions starts Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.
Heavier lake effect snow with IFR/LIFR east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Very windy.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance (Erie) and likely (Ontario) of
snow showers east/southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions expected through tonight with southerly
component winds under 15 knots.

Strong low pressure will move from the upper Great Lakes Wednesday
to Quebec by late Thursday, supporting a strong cold front to plow
across the lower Great Lakes late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Westerly winds will quickly increase along and behind the cold
front, with an extended period of gales on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario from late Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late Wednesday night through Saturday
     morning for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
     afternoon for NYZ010-011.
     Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Friday
     evening for NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Friday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Friday
         for LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Thomas/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/Hitchcock/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 25, 1:50 AM EST, 10 hours 54 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

NYZ006>008-260700-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Winds will
increase along and behind the cold front, with wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph possible late Wednesday through Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-013-014-021-260700-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Allegany-
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Winds will
increase along and behind the cold front, with wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph possible late Wednesday through Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019-020-085-260700-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Winds will
increase along and behind the cold front, with wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph possible late Wednesday through Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-011-260700-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

A strong cold front will cross the region late Wednesday. Winds will
increase along and behind the cold front, with wind gusts of 40 to
50 mph possible late Wednesday through Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-260700-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-260700-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-260700-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
150 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 25, 3:46 AM ESTGale WarningBUF4 days
Nov 25, 12:44 PM ESTLake Effect Snow WarningBUFAllegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Jefferson and 4 more4 days
Nov 25, 12:44 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFErie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans42 hr
Nov 25, 12:46 PM ESTLakeshore Flood WatchBUFChautauqua, Erie13 hr
Nov 25, 12:47 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF4 days
Nov 25, 12:54 PM ESTWind AdvisoryBUFCayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Monroe and 5 more60 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in New York, 2025Every winter storm watch in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.