Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Buffalo, NY

277 
WHUS71 KBUF 211949
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

LEZ020-220515-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-220515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T0000Z-250423T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-220515-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T1200Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
349 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

687 
WHUS71 KBUF 212334
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

LEZ040-041-220900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T0000Z-250423T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
734 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-220900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T1200Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
734 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-220900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
734 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

542 
WHUS71 KBUF 220817
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
417 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

LEZ040-041-221630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
417 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-221630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T1200Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
417 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-221630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
417 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

186 
WHUS71 KBUF 220824
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

LOZ042-043-221630-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-221630-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.250422T0824Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-221630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-221630-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
424 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

996 
WHUS71 KBUF 221318
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
918 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

LEZ040-041-222300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
918 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-043-222100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
918 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-222300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
918 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-222100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
918 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

992 
WHUS71 KBUF 222034
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
434 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

LEZ020-LOZ042-043-222145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250422T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
434 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LEZ040-041-230000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
434 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ044-045-230300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
434 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

065 
WHUS71 KBUF 222357
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
757 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

LEZ040-041-230100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
757 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

LOZ044-045-230300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
757 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

605 
WHUS71 KBUF 230234
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1034 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

LOZ044-045-230345-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-250423T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1034 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
959 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes today. A warm front in
advance of the system will move across the region late this
morning, quickly followed by a cold front late this afternoon
and evening. Both of these features will produce a few rounds of
showers and scattered thunderstorms today into this evening.
Rain will end overnight, with mainly dry weather returning
Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure builds into the Great
Lakes. The next round of rain will arrive later Friday as the
next low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A sharp mid level trough will move across the western Great
Lakes today before reaching western Quebec Tuesday, with a
surface low taking a similar track as the cyclone occludes and
becomes vertically stacked. A warm front will race northeast
across the eastern Great Lakes late this morning, quickly
followed by a pre-frontal trough and cold front later this
afternoon and evening.

Late this morning there's a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms, with this along a strengthening 45-50 knot low
level jet enhancing isentropic upglide and moisture transport
atop the sharp low level thermal gradient. This convection is
mainly elevated, with updrafts rooted above a wedge of
stable/cool air near the surface.

It is quite windy today across Western and Central NY following
the passage of the warm front, with gusts in the 25-35 mph
range for most of the area. A brief favorable setup for stronger
downslope winds will develop this morning to the lee of the
Chautauqua Ridge, with a 45-50 knot southerly low level jet near
the ridge top and a favorable near surface stable layer
supporting acceleration of winds down the lee side of the
Chautauqua Ridge. Expect gusts up to 50 mph locally near Lake
Erie, with a Wind Advisory in effect for Chautauqua County.

Expect a brief break in more organized showers following the passage
of the warm front. Another band of showers and scattered
thunderstorms will then move from west to east across the area later
this afternoon and evening along a pre-frontal trough, with added
support from DPVA and height falls ahead of the mid level trough
axis. This band of convection will be surface based as it moves
through near and just after peak heating. SB instability will be
limited in the warm sector, but there will be some instability
and with wind shear in place there is a marginal risk for strong
thunderstorms. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe
weather across Western NY, with the main concern ahead of the
cold frontal passage this afternoon through early evening. Wind
gusts of 50 mph or stronger are possible in stronger storms
during this time.

Rain and scattered thunderstorms will end from west to east
this evening with the passage of the pre-frontal trough and then
the actual cold front, with partial clearing overnight as drier
air advects into the eastern Great Lakes.

Dry weather will return Tuesday, with deeper moisture and forcing
associated with the mid level trough staying well north of the area
across Quebec. It will be quite breezy again, especially northeast
of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario where winds will gust in the 30-35 mph
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
Sfc based ridge will deliver mainly quiet, dry weather through
a vast majority of the time period. That said...zonal flow aloft
and a very weak and further weakening impulse (shortwave) is
advertised to cross the region Wednesday afternoon. The most
'likely' scenario will be an increase in mid-high clouds, with
little chance (< 20%) of precipitation. Heights then begin to
build aloft Thursday in response to a trough digging across the
upper Midwest. Moisture advection around the departing sfc ridge
over our area will then bring a chance for a few showers as
early as Thursday night. Otherwise...mainly dry and uneventful
weather and a day to day warming trend, of which peaks on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep moisture and embedded shortwave energy within the southwesterly
flow aloft will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday
through Saturday. After a wet start to the weekend...high pressure
builds in behind the departing shortwave trough Sunday with fair dry
weather through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warm front will move northeast across the area this morning,
quickly followed by a cold front later this afternoon and evening as
a mid level trough and associated surface low moves across the Great
Lakes. Increased forcing and moisture associated with these features
will produce a few rounds of showers across the region from this
morning through this evening. Elevated instability along the warm
front this morning through midday will support scattered
thunderstorms. There will be another chance of thunderstorms later
this afternoon and early evening just ahead of the cold front. The
rain and thunder chances will quickly end from west to east this
evening with the passage of the cold front.

CIGS will remain VFR for most lower elevations, with some MVFR CIGS
across higher terrain this afternoon through this evening. VSBY will
be VFR most of the time, with brief restrictions in any heavier
showers.

A strong 45-50 knot low level jet will cross the eastern Great Lakes
today ahead of the cold front. This will produce a period of low
level wind shear this morning through early afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...VFR deteriorating to MVFR with showers likely, mainly later
in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move through the upper Great Lakes today before
reaching western Quebec Tuesday. East to southeast winds will become
more southerly today, with downslope winds producing locally higher
winds along the Lake Erie shore adjacent to Chautauqua and southern
Erie counties.

A cold front will move east across the area this evening, with
southwest winds increasing overnight, then becoming west and
increasing further on Tuesday. This will likely bring Small Craft
Advisory conditions to both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Winds will
gradually diminish later Tuesday night and Wednesday as high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon
         for LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

NYZ003>005-013-014-221730-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-221730-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>012-019>021-085-221730-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-Southern Erie-
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There's a marginal risk for strong thunderstorms this afternoon
through early evening. Some storms may produce gusty to damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-221730-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There's a marginal risk for strong thunderstorms this afternoon
through early evening. Some storms may produce gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-221730-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel