Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2025

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Buffalo, NY

June 9, 2025Chautauqua County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 9, 2025, 5:51 PM EDT for Chautauqua County, New York. It was in force for 54 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 9, 2025, 5:51 PM EDT (21:51 UTC)
Expired: Jun 9, 2025, 6:45 PM EDT
In force: 54 min
Issued by: NWS Buffalo, NY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Chautauqua County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 9, 2:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 73 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 552 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 70 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

839 
WUUS51 KBUF 092151
SVRBUF
NYC013-092245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0045.250609T2151Z-250609T2245Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
551 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Central Chautauqua County in western New York...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 550 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over North East,
  or 15 miles east of Erie, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Dunkirk, Fredonia, Westfield, Silver Creek, Mayville, Chautauqua
  Institution, Lake Erie State Park, Findley Lake, SUNY Fredonia, and
  Evangola State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 58 and 61.
 Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4244 7950 4253 7939 4260 7919 4264 7916
      4269 7911 4265 7906 4261 7911 4257 7914
      4257 7911 4254 7906 4230 7906 4209 7976
      4227 7976 4228 7973 4231 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 240DEG 36KT 4220 7980 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Thomas

2 follow-up statements

534 
WWUS51 KBUF 092215
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
615 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

NYC013-092245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-250609T2245Z/
Chautauqua NY-
615 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

At 614 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest of
Westfield, or 21 miles southwest of Fredonia, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dunkirk, Fredonia, Westfield, Silver Creek, Mayville, Chautauqua
Institution, Lake Erie State Park, Findley Lake, SUNY Fredonia, and
Evangola State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 58 and 61.
 Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 6.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4231 7977 4244 7950 4253 7939 4254 7934
      4257 7929 4260 7919 4264 7916 4269 7911
      4265 7906 4261 7911 4257 7914 4257 7911
      4254 7906 4233 7906 4209 7976 4227 7976
      4228 7973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 240DEG 24KT 4225 7967 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Thomas

116 
WWUS51 KBUF 092242
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

NYC013-092251-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-250609T2245Z/
Chautauqua NY-
642 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty 
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4231 7977 4244 7950 4253 7939 4254 7934
      4257 7929 4260 7919 4264 7916 4269 7911
      4265 7906 4261 7911 4257 7914 4257 7911
      4254 7906 4233 7906 4209 7976 4227 7976
      4228 7973
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 240DEG 36KT 4238 7937 

$$

Thomas

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 9, 1:35 PM EDT, 4 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 9, 1:35 PM EDT, 4 hours 16 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
135 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
evening. Some of these storms may produce locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, with these drenching thunderstorms continuing the heavy
rain threat through the overnight hours. Conditions dry out Tuesday
through at least Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Initial batch of moderate to heavy showers and isolated thunder
associated with pre-frontal trough continuing to expand eastward
across western New York early this afternoon. There remains
some uncertainty in how much destabilization occurs this
afternoon. Shear profiles remain favorable, however the current
coverage of showers working through the region will likely
hinder destabilization and limit severe threat through at least
mid afternoon.

Lastest CAMs continuing to suggest a better opportunity for stronger
thunderstorms will be late this afternoon and this evening as the
atmosphere recovers within the warm sector ahead of the approaching
main cold frontal boundary, with main threat area across the
Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. The axis of a +1SD PWAT anomaly
will lie over our region late this afternoon and evening, that along
with a boundary layer flow becoming parallel to an approaching cold
front will encourage training cells. This will bring a threat for
locally heavy rainfall with basin average rainfall amounts of an
inch plus possible across a good portion of our area from late this
afternoon through tonight.

Heavier rain and convection ends from west to east late tonight,
with some lingering patchy fog possible through the night as low
level moisture hangs around and air temperatures settle back to near
the dewpoint.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The mid-level trough exits off into New England Tuesday night, which
will allow for drier weather to take hold across the entire region.
It looks generally dry for most locations Wednesday, but we
could still see a shower or two across the North Country and
Saint Lawrence Valley.

A shortwave trough dropping southeast across Ontario is then
advertised to drag a cold front through the area Wednesday night
with a chance for a few showers. The risk for additional showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm should increase by Thursday afternoon as
the front makes its way into the Southern Tier, before stalling
out near the NY/PA line by Thursday night bringing a continued
chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Medium range guidance continuing to signal that a quasi-stationary
frontal boundary will take shape near the region and remain in place
for the end of the week and into the weekend. Where this front ends
up will determine the threat for additional showers and
thunderstorms. Low forecast confidence exists on where any activity
would develop along or close to this boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will then approach western NY this afternoon with a
line of showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the boundary.
The front will slow its eastward progression as it eases across
western NY into the Finger Lakes through the afternoon into the
evening hours. Expect widespread rain and thunderstorms
featuring the potential for locally heavy rain and strong wind
gusts. Flight conditions will lower to IFR, and possibly LIFR in
heavier storms, with MVFR predominant outside of heavier
activity. Far western NY may start to see some improvement by
around 06Z.

Tonight, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms to start the
period with LIFR/IFR flight conditions. Activity ends from west to
east overnight, with patches of fog lingering through the night.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Likely VFR and dry for KBUF/KIAG.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers east of Lake
Ontario.

Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will veer more southerly to southwesterly this afternoon and
remain through Tuesday behind a cold front that will cross the lower
Great Lakes late this afternoon and evening. As a pool of cool air
associated with the mid level low passes over the lower Great Lakes
Tuesday and Tuesday night, a modest chop will again develop on the
lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ003-004-012>014-
     019>021-085.
     Flood Watch from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for NYZ005-006.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/Thomas/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/Thomas/TMA

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 9, 2:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

NYZ019>021-101900-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-004-012>014-085-101900-
Monroe-Wayne-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Southern Erie-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-101900-
Northern Cayuga-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010-011-101900-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-101900-
Oswego-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-101900-
Jefferson-Lewis-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall through tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce heavy
rainfall which could lead to flash flooding, especially for areas
that are susceptible to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-101900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-101900-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
255 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, with a
lower
chance for severe hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 9, 4:50 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
450 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Hail             3 S Jamestown West      42.04N 79.29W
06/09/2025  E1.00 Inch       Chautauqua         NY   Public

0449 PM     Hail             Jamestown               42.10N 79.24W
06/09/2025  E1.00 Inch       Chautauqua         NY   Public

&&

Local storm report, Jun 9, 5:12 PM EDT, 39 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
512 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     Hail             Jamestown               42.10N 79.24W
06/09/2025  E1.00 Inch       Chautauqua         NY   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from
            Jamestown.

&&

EAJ

Local storm report, Jun 9, 5:18 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
518 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 NNW Oswego            43.47N 76.51W
06/09/2025  M39 MPH          LOZ044             NY   Buoy

&&

EAJ

Local storm report, Jun 9, 5:39 PM EDT, 12 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
539 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     Hail             Jamestown               42.10N 79.24W
06/09/2025  M1.00 Inch       Chautauqua         NY   Public

&&

EAJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 9, 3:51 AM EDT	Flood Watch	BUF	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston and 5 more	22 min
Jun 9, 4:16 AM EDT	Flood Watch	BUF	Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston and 5 more	22 hr
Jun 9, 3:03 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	BUF		87 min
Jun 9, 3:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Chautauqua	49 min
Jun 9, 4:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Jefferson, Oswego	59 min
Jun 9, 4:28 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	BUF		32 min
Jun 9, 4:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Cattaraugus, Chautauqua	62 min
Jun 9, 4:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Jefferson, Lewis, Oswego	31 min
Jun 9, 5:30 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	BUF		60 min
Jun 9, 5:36 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	BUF	Cattaraugus	24 min
Jun 9, 6:41 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	BUF	Allegany	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2025 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.