Gale Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

296 
WHUS71 KBUF 112347
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
647 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

LOZ043-044-121200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-250212T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.250212T0300Z-250213T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
647 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 25 knots 
  and waves 6 to 9 feet expected. For the Gale Watch, west winds 
  to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, from 10 PM this evening 
  to 1 AM EST Thursday. For the Gale Watch, from Thursday 
  morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-121200-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-250212T0000Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
647 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-121200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.250212T0300Z-250213T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
647 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-121200-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
647 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

JJR

273 
WHUS71 KBUF 120840
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

LOZ043-044-121945-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-250213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
340 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 25 knots 
  and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 
  knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday morning through Thursday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ042-121945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-250213T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
340 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 
  knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday morning through Thursday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ062-121945-
/O.EXA.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
340 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-063>065-121945-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
340 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to 
  the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake 
  Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

943 
WHUS71 KBUF 121446
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
946 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

LOZ042-122300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-250213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
946 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 
  knots and waves 10 to 13 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday morning through Thursday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-122300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-250213T0900Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
946 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds 15 to 25 knots 
  and waves 6 to 9 feet. For the Gale Watch, west winds to 35 
  knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Watch, from Thursday morning through Thursday 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

LOZ045-062>065-122300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
946 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet possible.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake 
  Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds can cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions.  Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

&&

$$

362 
WHUS71 KBUF 121921
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

LOZ042>044-130500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.000000T0000Z-250213T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0006.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
221 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, east winds to 30 knots 
  and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 
  knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 4 AM EST Thursday. 
  For the Gale Warning, from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-062>065-130500-
/O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0004.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0006.250213T1500Z-250214T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
221 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected.

* WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River 
  to the Saint Lawrence River, and the nearshore waters of Lake 
  Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-130500-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0019.250213T1200Z-250214T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
221 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-130500-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0018.250213T0300Z-250214T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
221 PM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
132 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be some lingering lake snows east of Lake Ontario
this afternoon, then a cold front dropping south across the area
tonight will bring some light snow showers. Low pressure will
then track across the region bringing a wintry mix late
Wednesday which will mainly change over to rain by late
Wednesday night. A cold front then sweeps through Thursday,
bringing colder weather and lake effect snow showers southeast
of Lake Ontario Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Lake effect snow showers across Jefferson County early this
afternoon will shift southward as a weak cold front approaches
the area. The disorganized band may become slightly better
organized as the front drops through, but any additional snow
accumulation will generally be an inch or less as the band
sweeps across the Eastern Lake Ontario region through this
evening.

As the front pushes south of the area tonight, an northeasterly
flow will develop overnight. The frontal passage may cause a few
snow showers south of Lake Ontario this evening. High res
guidance shows very light QPF up to a few hundredths of an inch
south of Lake Ontario which is being driven by upsloping and
lake enhancement. Shallow moisture and cloud tops beneath the
DGZ suggest IF this precipitation develops it would likely be
flurries or freezing drizzle. The more likely scenario is that
it will only result in cloud cover and no precipitation.
Otherwise, the cold front will usher in colder weather with lows
in the teens in most areas and the single digits east of Lake
Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will build east across southern Quebec
Wednesday, keeping the area dry for the bulk of the day as clouds
gradually thicken and lower ahead of the next system. Shallow
northeast flow may still support a few lake effect flurries or light
snow showers in the morning along the south shore of Lake Ontario
from Rochester westward to the Niagara River. This area of snow
showers will then head towards Toronto as boundary layer flow
becomes ESE.

Our attention then turns to a complex and messy system that will
cross the area Wednesday night through Thursday. This system will
produce a myriad of weather, including snow, sleet, freezing rain,
rain, and wind. While the system will produce a wide variety of
weather, impacts from all of the above are expected to be relatively
minor based on latest model guidance.

A mid level shortwave will eject out of the 4-corners region early
Wednesday, then partially phase with additional northern stream
shortwave energy moving along the US/Canadian border, with the
phased system crossing the Great Lakes early Thursday. At the
surface, low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday
will move northeast across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night before
moving directly across the eastern Great Lakes Thursday morning.

An area of snow will develop quickly from southwest to northeast
late Wednesday afternoon and evening as broad warm advection and
moisture transport develop ahead of the system. A notable warm nose
aloft will then move into most of the region overnight, changing the
snow to a period of sleet and freezing rain before most areas change
briefly to just plain rain as surface temperatures rise above
freezing late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning. The North
Country will stay cold longer, both aloft and at the surface,
resulting in a more prolonged period of snow and wintry mix.

With the rapid change to wintry mix and rain, expect only minor snow
accumulations in most areas. Precipitation may stay snow for a
little longer north of the NY Thruway from Niagara County east
across Rochester to Oswego County, with a few inches of snow
possible before the changeover. The North Country will stay snow the
longest, with 3-6" possible, highest near the Saint Lawrence
where the column remains below freezing for a longer period of time.
Consider these numbers preliminary, just a small change in the storm
track would result in significant changes to expected snowfall.

Most areas should see a brief period of freezing rain during the
transition from snow to rain. The best chance for a few hours of
freezing rain will be found across the more sheltered valleys of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes, and also the Tug Hill region.

Temperatures will reach their warmest point late Wednesday night and
early Thursday morning, then strong cold advection will take hold
later Thursday morning with rain changing quickly back to snow from
west to east. The combination of wrap around moisture, upslope flow,
and the start of lake enhancement will result in minor snow
accumulations later Thursday, especially east of the lakes.

This system will also have the potential to produce gusty winds
across the region. A strong southerly low level jet will develop
Wednesday night in the warm advection regime ahead of the system.
This will support increasing downslope winds along the Lake Erie
shore and to the north of the Tug Hill Plateau. Model guidance is in
poor agreement on the magnitude of the low level jet, but gusts of
40+ mph are possible in the typical downslope areas. West to
southwest winds will then increase along and behind the cold front
Thursday. Some of the previous model runs that forecast a stronger
surface low passing northwest of our region have trended weaker and
slightly south, which for now reduces the risk of a high wind event
across the eastern Great Lakes. It will turn quite windy Thursday,
with gusts of 40+ mph possible as cold air pours back into the
region.

Colder air will continue to pour back into the Great Lakes Thursday
night through Friday, with a WNW flow regime supporting accumulating
snow southeast of the lakes. Off Lake Ontario, expect a band of snow
to develop by late Thursday and continue through at least the first
half of Friday, focusing across Oswego, northern Cayuga, and eastern
Wayne counties. Still plenty of uncertainty at this time range, but
expect at least moderate accumulations from this. Farther west,
expect occasional snow showers and light accumulations south of Lake
Ontario from Rochester westward. Snow showers will also develop
across the higher terrain east of Lake Erie, but a shorter fetch,
lack of upstream connections, and plenty of ice cover on Lake Erie
should keep accumulations minor.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The active weather pattern will continue through next weekend, as
yet another synoptic scale system will move towards the region with
potentially impactful weather. The split flow regime across western
North America will supply another southern stream shortwave, which
will reach the Ohio Valley by late Saturday night. This system will
reach the Northeast US Sunday, and may at least partially phase with
an additional strong northern stream shortwave moving southeast
across Canada. A more phased solution, such as the 00Z/11 ECMWF,
would result in a stronger system and greater potential for heavy
precipitation across our region.

Latest model guidance suggests an initial weak frontal wave will
cross the Great Lakes Saturday, supporting widespread light snow.
Another stronger wave will then pass just southeast of our area
later Saturday night and Sunday, with a potentially stronger surface
low moving from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. This second wave
has the potential to produce heavy snow across our region, although
a less phased solution, such as the 00Z/11 GFS would keep the system
less impactful overall. Still a good deal of uncertainty with the
details, but the weekend looks unsettled at the very least.

Regardless of how the details play out this weekend, confidence is
growing in a much colder pattern by early next week as a deep
longwave trough is carved out over the central and eastern US,
delivering an arctic airmass to the region. Expect highs in the
teens and lows in the single digits by Monday, with some lake effect
snow possible east/southeast of the lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front approaching from the north early this afternoon may bring
some intermittent bouts of light snow showers for KART with briefly
reduced VSBYs possible at times, with MVFR/low VFR CIGS will hanging
on through the remainder of the day. Lake induced clouds off Lake
Erie thinning out as expected as boundary layer winds become less
and less organized, thus KBUF has scattered out early this
afternoon. Although, a few areas of localized high end MVFR/low VFR
will be possible ENE/NE of Lake Erie this afternoon.
Elsewhere...mainly VFR expected for the remainder of the day with
mid and upper level decks passing overhead western and northcentral
NY.

Mainly VFR expected this evening, exception continuing east of Lake
Ontario (KART), where high end MVFR/low VFR likely to continue with
a westerly flow off Lake Ontario. Winds will quickly veer north then
northeast from north to south late this evening into the overnight
in the wake of the cold fropa. This will help the lower CIGS around
KART improve, while CIGS at the KBUF/KIAG/KROC sites likely lower
into the MVFR range with the now N to NE flow off Lake Ontario.
Precipitation chances will be low, however a few scattered light
snow showers cannot be ruled out south of Lake Ontario, mainly from
the Thruway north (KBUF/KIAG/KROC).

ENE flow will continue off Lake Ontario through early afternoon on
Wednesday, thus expect MVFR/low VFR CIGS to hang on across the
KBUF/KIAG/KROC. At the same time, deeper moisture will be encroaching
from the southwest in association with the next system expected to
impact the area starting later Wednesday afternoon. With this in
mind expect KJHW to see CIGS lowering to MVFR by late Wednesday
morning in advance of the aforementioned low pressure system.
Otherwise, VFR expected east of Lake Ontario (KART).

Looking a bit beyond the 18Z TAF period, expect deteriorating
conditions across western NY as light snow overspreads the region
from southwest to northeast later Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR in light snow from
western NY eastward to the Finger Lakes.

Wednesday night through Thursday...Widespread IFR with snow changing
to a wintry mix. Likely changing to plain rain early Thursday
morning before changing back to snow showers Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night...IFR in lake effect snow SE of lakes, otherwise VFR.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Local IFR in
lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario.

Saturday and Sunday...IFR in snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate westerlies will continue to produce Small Craft Advisory
conditions on the eastern portion of Lake Ontario today. A cold
front will then bring a period of north to northeast winds through
Wednesday night ahead of low pressure approaching from the Ohio
Valley. This will likely bring another round of Small Craft Advisory
conditions to Lake Ontario, with potentially higher winds possible.

Low pressure will then move directly across the lower Great
Lakes Thursday morning, Westerly winds will quickly increase as
colder air pours back in behind this system, with a period of
gales possible Thursday, especially on Lake Ontario.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
347 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-121100-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
347 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Low pressure will move directly over the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday Night and Thursday, producing a wide variety of weather
across the region. Snow will develop late Wednesday afternoon and
evening, then change to a wintry mix including the potential for
a brief period of freezing rain Wednesday night, before most areas
change to just plain rain late Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning. Only minor amounts of snow and ice are expected, but may
result in a period of slick travel.

Winds will also increase, with gusts over 40 mph possible Wednesday
night from of the south and southeast, and then gusts over 40 mph
possible from the west Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>006-121100-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
347 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Low pressure will move directly over the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday Night and Thursday, producing a wide variety of weather
across the region. Snow will develop late Wednesday afternoon and
evening, then change to a wintry mix including the potential for
a brief period of freezing rain Wednesday night, before most areas
change to just plain rain late Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning. Only minor amounts of snow and ice are expected, but may
result in a period of slick travel.

Winds will also increase, with gusts over 40 mph possible Wednesday
night from of the south and southeast, and then gusts over 40 mph
possible from the west Thursday.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible Thursday night through
Friday southeast of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-121100-
Jefferson-Lewis-
347 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Low pressure will move directly over the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday Night and Thursday, producing a wide variety of weather
across the region. Snow will develop late Wednesday evening, then
change to a wintry mix including the potential for a brief period of
freezing rain late Wednesday night. Moderate snow accumulations are
possible, especially across northern sections of the area. Minor ice
accumulations are also possible.

Winds will also increase, with gusts over 40 mph possible late
Wednesday night through early Thursday from of the south and
southeast, and then gusts over 40 mph possible from the west
Thursday afternoon and evening.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-121100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
347 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-121100-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
347 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gale force winds are possible on Lake Ontario Thursday through
Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1111 AM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     Snow             Minetto                 43.40N 76.48W
02/11/2025  M15.4 Inch       Oswego             NY   Cocorahs

            Cocorahs station NY-OS-15 Minetto 0.1 SE.
            24 hour snowfall

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1237 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     Snow             2 SSE Palermo           43.33N 76.27W
02/11/2025  M18.7 Inch       Oswego             NY   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station PLMN6 Palermo 2SSE.
            24-hour snowfall

&&