Alert archive / New York / Gale Warnings in 2025
Gale Warning 8, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this gale warning at Feb 16, 2025, 8:49 AM EST. It took effect at Feb 16, 2025, 10:00 PM EST. It was in force for 30 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2025, 8:49 AM EST (13:49 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 16, 2025, 10:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Feb 18, 2025, 4:00 AM EST
- In force
- 30 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted.
287 WHUS71 KBUF 161349 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 LOZ042-043-062-063-162200- /O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.CAN.KBUF.GL.A.0005.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds to 35 knots today, then northwest winds to 40 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet tonight through early Tuesday morning. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-162200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250217T0300Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, northeast winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 knots and waves 15 to 19 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ045-162200- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.250216T1349Z-250217T0300Z/ /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds to 30 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 35 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ064-065-162200- /O.UPG.KBUF.GL.A.0005.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0008.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet expected. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-162200- /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.250217T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots expected. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-162200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-162200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 849 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
7 follow-up statements
028 WHUS71 KBUF 161938 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 238 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 LOZ044-045-170345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250217T0300Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 238 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Small Craft Advisory, north winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet. For the Gale Warning, west winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM EST this evening. For the Gale Warning, from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-062-063-170345- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 238 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ064-065-170345- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 238 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-170345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 238 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-170345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 238 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-170345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.250217T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 238 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots expected. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
302 WHUS71 KBUF 170232 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 932 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 LOZ044-045-171200- /O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250217T0300Z/ /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 932 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ042-043-062-063-171200- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 932 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ064-065-171200- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.250217T0300Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 932 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet expected. * WHERE...The open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-171200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 932 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-171200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 932 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-171200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 932 PM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ JJR
635 WHUS71 KBUF 170856 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 356 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 LOZ042-043-062-063-171700- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 356 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-064-065-171700- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 356 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-171700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 356 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-171700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 356 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-171700- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 356 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
698 WHUS71 KBUF 171428 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 928 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 LOZ042-043-062-063-172230- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 928 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 13 to 17 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-064-065-172230- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 928 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-172230- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 928 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-172230- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 928 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-172230- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 928 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
866 WHUS71 KBUF 171940 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 240 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 LOZ042-043-062-063-180345- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 240 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-064-065-180345- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 240 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-180345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 240 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-180345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 240 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-180345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 240 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
164 WHUS71 KBUF 172032 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 332 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 LOZ042-043-062-063-180900- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 332 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-045-064-065-180900- /O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 332 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 14 to 18 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ030-180930- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 332 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-180930- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 332 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-180930- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 332 PM EST Mon Feb 17 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
358 WHUS71 KBUF 180907 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 LOZ042-181715- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ043-181715- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T1500Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ044-181715- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T1500Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ045-181715- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ /O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T1200Z/ Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... * WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LOZ064-065-181015- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0008.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... $$ LOZ062-063-181015- /O.EXP.KBUF.GL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-250218T0900Z/ Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED... $$ LOZ030-181200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Lower Niagara River- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The Lower Niagara River. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ040-041-181715- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250219T0000Z/ Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots. * WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to Buffalo. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$ LEZ020-181200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0020.000000T0000Z-250218T1200Z/ Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- 407 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2025 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...West winds 15 to 20 knots. * WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning. * IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions that could capsize or damage small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Feb 16, 8:01 AM EST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 8:01 AM EST, 48 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
801 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A deepening low pressure will track across the region today,
bringing a wintry mix which changes back over to snow by this
evening. This strong low pressure will exit off to our northeast
tonight, with strong gusty winds in its wake and much colder
temperatures. Very cold Monday and Tuesday, which combined with
gusty winds will bring sub zero wind chills. This very cold airmass
will also bring significant lakes effect snows southeast of lake
Ontario.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest forecast update raises ice accumulations for today and
lowers snowfall amounts. Latest observations show widespread
freezing rain across Western NY, due to a thin warm layer of
+2.6C measured on the 12Z sounding taken at Buffalo.
Extrapolating this out, expect much of the eastern Lake Ontario
region to change over to freezing rain for a period this
morning, with ice accumulations of around a quarter inch on the
Tug Hill.
Freezing rain will change to snow as the low passes by in the 11
a.m. to 3 p.m. timeframe. Temperatures will also drop during
this time, which will freeze any slush in place on roads and
walkways. Before the changeover, Western NY can expect an
additional tenth of an inch or so of icing in most areas,
although the Southern Tier may briefly change over to just plain
rain. The combination of ice, followed by snow and colder
temperatures will make travel very difficult today.
Expecting 1 to 4 inches of snow this afternoon and evening,
following the changeover, with the greatest snow amounts across
the higher terrain east of Lake Erie and far northern Jefferson
County.
Wind potential...
Strong CAA with steepening lapse rates and tight pressure
gradient directly behind the departing powerful low pressure, it
will 'likely' produce strong gusty winds as high as 50 mph
across the entire region. Have issued a Wind Advisory beginning
this evening and continuing through the day Monday.
In addition to the strong gusty winds...notably colder air will
rush into the region tonight. The strong winds will combine
with plummeting temperatures to produce wind chills of zero to
10 below. We also could be looking at some power outages in
areas that received accumulating 'ice'. Something to be aware
of.
Lake effect potential...
All the ingredients are coming together for significant lake
effect snow, especially on Monday as EQL climb above 10K feet
and then upstream connections become established.
Synoptic based snow over the region will transition to pure
lake effect after midnight tonight. A well defined band of heavy
lake effect snow will likely develop southeast of Lake Ontario
by Monday morning and then last through Tuesday. Snowfall
accumulations in the most persistent snows could easily topple
two feet, although it will be hard to measure considering the
strong gusty winds. The strong winds will produce significant
blowing and drifting snow, with near whiteout conditions. This
will make for near impossible driving conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Powerful 960 mb storm departing through the Canadian Maritimes will
bring very gusty winds and heavy lake snows southeast of Lake
Ontario.
Models continuing to show an impressive isallobaric push behind the
exit storm as high pressure builds in from the west. Strong cold
advection will allow for deep mixing, allowing most if not all of 45
to 50 knots low level jet to transfer to the surface, resulting in
surface wind gusts of 45 mph or greater through Monday evening. A
wind advisory is in effect for the entire area for this time period.
Cold air advection through Monday night will send temperatures into
the single digits to near zero. These temperatures combined with the
gusty winds will create wind chill values to near 15 below across
western New York and to near 20 below for areas east of Lake
Ontario. Will continue to mention the bitter wind chills in the
hazardous weather outlook product, but as the event draws closer
cold weather headlines may eventually be needed.
Tuesday night will likely be colder than Monday night by a few
degrees, but winds speeds will be less. Still looking at bitter
winds chills below zero across the entire area.
...Significant lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario...
Cold air advection through Monday night over Lake Ontario will bring
lake inversion heights up to around 10K feet. A well aligned 280 to
290 flow will maintain a band of lake effect snow across northern
Cayuga and Oswego Counties Monday, eventually oscillating north into
southern Lewis county, as subtle backing occurs. This band of lake
snow will likely be enhanced by upstream lake connections. Strong
convergence along the long axis of the lake will help strengthen
this band with snowfall rates likely to be greater than 2 inches per
hour at times. These snowfall rates, along with strong winds will
create very poor visibility near and within the snowband.
A slow southward drift to the lake band will occur later Monday
night into Tuesday with the passage of a shortwave trough as the
flow turns a bit more northwesterly. This will shift the heaviest
lake snows into eastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and far southwestern
Oswego counties later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Lake snows may
extended farther west along the remaining south shore of Lake
Ontario where a few inches of accumulation will be possible.
Overall the prolonged nature of this snowband, both Monday and
Monday night as well as Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring total
snow accumulations upwards of two feet or more. A lake effect snow
warning has been issued for Lewis, Oswego, northern Cayuga and Wayne
through late Tuesday night.
Lighter snow showers off Lake Erie, generally Monday and Monday
night before a surface ridge of high pressure extending over Lake
Erie diminishes any lake activity to just flurries by Tuesday.
Accumulations on the hills south and east of Buffalo of a few
inches.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mid-level ridge axis centered across Lake Erie Wednesday
morning, will build east across New England into Wednesday night
resulting in surface high pressure to slide east across the area
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Overall, the ongoing lake effect snow
southeast of Lake Ontario Wednesday morning will peter out
throughout the day as the dry warm air filters into the region.
Attention then turns to the next mid-level closed low diving
southeast across the Dakotas towards Illinois before pivoting across
the Ohio Valley and lifting northeast across New England by Friday.
As such, a surface low will develop over southern Texas/Louisiana
crossing east towards Georgia Wednesday before lifting
north/northeast along the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night through
Friday. Given how far out this event lies, model difference continue
with placement and timing of the low and therefore resulting in low
forecast confidence at this time. The track of the low will greatly
determine the weather for the forecast area; a western more track
(along/hugging the Eastern Seaboard) will support a widespread
snowier pattern, while an eastern track in the Atlantic will keep
the region on the drier side. Overall, since the model guidance
continues to highlight a track along the Eastern Seaboard, have
bumped up PoPs for this forecast. Additionally, will keep an eye on
this system and its track as the week progresses.
In the wake of the departing low pressure, subtle mid-level ridging
and associated surface high pressure will spread across the region
Friday and Saturday supporting perhaps a break in the winter weather.
Regarding temperatures, after a chilly start Wednesday low level
temperatures will begin to modulate throughout the remainder of the
week into the weekend, though remain cold enough to support below
freezing temperatures mainly ranging in the 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Freezing rain this morning will changeover to snow from west to
east late morning through early afternoon. Until then, expect
icing at most of our terminals, except KART which will start as
snow but change over to freezing rain or sleet. As the low
tracks across New York State precipitation will transition back
over to snow at all terminals by late afternoon. This provides
fairly high confidence in the timing for changeover to snow
(plus or minus an hour from the timing in the TAFS). Widespread
IFR or lower flight conditions in low cigs.
With the passage of the low...winds will strengthen quickly with
westerly winds 20 to 30 knots gusting up to 45 knots tonight.
Outlook...
Monday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR...but IFR to
MVFR in lake snows southeast of the lakes.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR...but MVFR in lake snow showers southeast of
Lake Ontario.
Thursday...MVFR to IFR in snow.
&&
.MARINE...
East to northeast winds will strengthen on Lake Ontario as a
deepening low pressure approaches the lake. This will bring a period
of gales on the western end of Lake Ontario beginning this morning.
Low pressure will cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon, with
winds briefly weakening. As the deepening low passes winds will
intensify again this evening, with gale force winds on Lake Ontario
tonight through Monday evening.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>006-
010>014-019>021-085.
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 1 AM Monday to 6 AM EST
Wednesday for NYZ004>006-008.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for
LOZ030.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042-043-
062-063.
Gale Watch from this evening through late Monday night for
LOZ042>045-062>065.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
LOZ044.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
LOZ045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/Apffel
SHORT TERM...Thomas/TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...ARHazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 4:29 AM EST, 4 hours 20 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 NYZ001>003-010>014-019>021-085-170930- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston- Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase with gusts to 45 mph or stronger tonight through Monday night. This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -15F by Monday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ004-005-170930- Wayne-Northern Cayuga- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase with gusts to 45 mph or stronger tonight through Monday night. This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -15F by Monday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ008-170930- Lewis- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase with gusts to 45 mph or stronger tonight through Monday night. This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -20F by Monday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-170930- Jefferson- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase with gusts to 45 mph or stronger tonight through Monday night. This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -20F by Monday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006-170930- Oswego- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. Lake Effect Snow Warning. Behind a strong storm system west to northwest winds will increase with gusts to 45 mph or stronger tonight through Monday night. This, combined with the cold air temperatures could also lead to cold weather headlines with wind chills dropping to -20F by Monday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-170930- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ044-045-064-065-170930- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042-043-062-063-170930- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- 429 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Warning. Gale Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf Reynolds
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 3:03 AM EST | Wind Advisory | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more | 39 hr |
| Feb 16, 3:31 AM EST | Lake Effect Snow Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Jefferson, Lewis, Monroe, Orleans, Oswego and 1 more | 3 days |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.